Joint Dynamics of Prices and Trading Volume on the Polish Stock Market

This paper concerns the relationship between stock returns and trading volume. We use daily stock data of the Polish companies included in the WIG20 segment (the twenty most liquid companies quoted on the primary market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange). The sample covers the period from January 1995 to April 2005. We find that there is no empirical support for a relationship between stock return levels and trading volume. On the other hand, our calculations provide evidence for a significant contemporaneous interaction between return volatility and trading volume. Our investigations reveal empirical evidence for the importance of volume data as an indicator of the flow of information into the market. These results are in line with suggestions from the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis. By means of the Granger causality test, we establish causality from both stock returns and return volatility to trading volume. Our results indicate that series on trading activities have little additional explanatory power for subsequent price changes over that already contained in the price series.abnormal stock returns, return volatility, abnormal trading volume, GARCH-cum-volume, causal relations

Implications of Dividend Announcements for the Stock Prices and Trading Volumes of DAX Companies (in English)

This paper deals with market reactions to dividend announcements on the German stock market. Our study is based on a model of expected dividends with regard to the reluctance-to-change-dividends hypothesis. State-of-the-art models are used to detect price and volume reactions to dividend news. Empirical results provide evidence that announced dividend changes convey new information to the market. On average, stock prices move in the same direction as dividends. One can observe an increase in stock-return volatility in anticipation of expected news. For the entire sample, we find that trading volumes exhibit significant increases around dividend announcement dates. This supports the hypothesis that dividend change in either direction causes an increase in investors’ propensity to revise their portfolios.abnormal stock returns; dividend announcements; GARCH modeling; trading volume

The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

Abstract This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory.We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure.Government expenditure · Linear and nonlinear causality · Bootstrap techniques

Polish stock market and some foreign markets – dependence analysis by copulas

By applying copulas the examination was carried out to find out whether trading volume, stock return and return volatility are pairwise dependent. In the investigations it was shown that there exists a close relationship between these variables on the domestic market and between Polish stock returns and the returns of foreign stock market indexes. A similar significant relationship concerns also trading volumes. In addition, stock returns (returns volatility) of the Austrian and especially of the German stock market influence Polish trading volume. The lack of significant DJIA returns impact on the trading volume on WSE on the same day is probably caused by the fact that changes of DJIA lead changes on the European stock markets.Copulas, dependences, stock returns, trading volume

Inducing Low-Carbon Investment in the Electric Power Industry through a Price Floor for Emissions Trading

Uncertainty about long-term climate policy is a major driving force in the evolution of the carbon market price. Since this price enters the investment decision process of regulated firms, this uncertainty increases the cost of capital for investors and might deter invest-ments into new technologies at the company level. We apply a real options-based approach to assess the impact of climate change policy in the form of a constant or growing price floor on investment decisions of a single firm in a competitive environment. This firm has the opportunity to switch from a high-carbon “dirty” technology to a low-carbon “clean” technology. Using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming techniques for real market data, we determine the optimal CO2 price floor level and growth rate in order to induce investments into the low-carbon technology. We show these findings to be robust to a large variety of input parameter settings.Carbon price, price floor, technological change, investment decision, real option approach

Integrating multiple sources of ordinal information in portfolio optimization

Active portfolio management tries to incorporate any source of meaningful information into the asset selection process. In this contribution we consider qualitative views specified as total orders of the expected asset returns and discuss two different approaches for incorporating this input in a mean-variance portfolio optimization model. In the robust optimization approach we first compute a posterior expectation of asset returns for every given total order by an extension of the Black-Litterman (BL) framework. Then these expected asset returns are considered as possible input scenarios for robust optimization variants of the mean-variance portfolio model (max-min robustness, min regret robustness and soft robustness). In the order aggregation approach rules from social choice theory (Borda, Footrule, Copeland, Best-of-k and MC4) are used to aggregate the total order in a single ``consensus total order''. Then expected asset returns are computed for this ``consensus total order'' by the extended BL framework mentioned above. Finally, these expectations are used as an input of the classical mean-variance optimization. Using data from EUROSTOXX 50 and S&P 100 we empirically compare the success of the two approaches in the context of portfolio performance analysis and observe that in general aggregating orders by social choice methods outperforms robust optimization based methods for both data sets

MIDAS models in banking sector – systemic risk comparison

This paper shows the application of MIDAS based models in systemic risk assessment in banking sector. We consider two popular measures of systemic risk i.e. Marginal Expected Shortfall and Delta Conditional Value at Risk. The GARCH-MIDAS model is used in modelling conditional volatilities. The long-run component is modeled using realized volatility. The conditional correlation, second step of modelling, is described with DCC-MIDAS model. This is novel approach in respect to classical TARCH and DCC modelling. Whereas the information contained in macroeconomic variables, if available, can help to predict short and long-term components, this is the promising option in improvement of systemic risk assessment

Zur Verwendung von Regressionsmodellen im Rahmen von finanzwirtschaftlichen Ereignisstudien

In this paper an event study is conducted to detect price reactions on dividend announcements using data from the Austrian stock market. We use the Market Model and the Market Model with Dummies to describe the return generating process. To identify the significance of abnormal returns we apply parametric as well as non-parametric tests (modified rang test and bootstrap). Announced dividend increases induce stock prices to rise, whereas dividend decreases lead to shrinking prices

Modeling of Returns and Trading Volume by Regime Switching Copulas

The structure of links between realized volatility and trading volume can be reflected by regime switching copulas. The estimation by means of copula based regime switching models delivered results concerning the interdependencies between realized return volatility and trading volume of selected companies listed in ATX. A copula in the first regime was chosen as an asymmetric copula with positive lower and upper tail dependencies. Conversely, Gaussian copula in the second regime is a symmetric copula and variables linked with it are tail independent. For all analyzed stocks the probability of being at the first regime appeared to be vitally greater than being at the second regime. This result suggest that there is considerable dependence between realized volatility and daily volume in extreme values. The results suggest that interdependencies between realized volatility and trading volume do not probably depend on the size but rather on the branch of a company