European Gas Trade: A Quantitative Approach

This second working paper within the series of reports on the ongoing activities in IIASA's International Gas Study presents some test applications of the GATE-I model (Gas Trade, Integrated Version). The general outline of this model can be found in the report, "Model of European Gas Production, Trade and Consumption". The GATE-I model has been applied to demonstrate the feasibility of modeling natural gas scenarios and the corresponding gas trade among the European subregions. Altogether four scenarios were developed: a base case that provides an initial test of the prospects for natural gas in future energy strategies for the European continent and indicates the trade links needed to meet expected demand; a scenario in which different export price-to-quantity relations are assumed for the gas exporting regions of the Soviet Union and North Africa; a supply security scenario that incorporates some gas import dependency policy considerations; and a scenario in which environmental aspects are considered in terms of the costs of meeting SO2 emission reduction requirements for enhanced natural gas consumption. In sum, given the simplification needed to keep GATE-I relatively compact and computationally fast, the main objectives of the exercise have been fully met. The quantitative results of applying the model to the analysis of gas prospects for the above regions should not be considered conclusive, but are suggestive of possible trends with respect to gas use in these regions. The preliminary analysis is currently being followed up with more detailed investigations

Energy Access and Electricity Planning

As developing countries look for ways to achieve sustainable energy services, which is essential to lift people out of poverty, the big challenge centers around providing access for all while avoiding past pitfalls without creating new ones. The reality is that this can only occur if there is a fundamental transformation of energy systems along the entire set of resource to energy service chains - and that will necessitate greater energy efficiency and a bigger role for renewables in the global energy mix energy. Competitive and private sector dominated energy markets rely on clear and consistent government energy-environment policies to align their investment decisions with sustainable development objectives. This paper tries to shed light on how developing countries can carry out energy planning by reviewing the available methodologies and tools, including their potential to integrate rural energy access and encourage the uptake of renewable energy technologies. It also probes how investment needs and cost-effectiveness are reflected in different analytic and planning tools - with a case study on Ethiopia. And it examines the interaction of energy planning and scenario development and how these are applied to informed policy making. The findings suggest that energy planning is essential and feasible. However, support is required to improve data collection and access, develop open accessible modelling tools, and build sustainable national capacity to undertake plannin

Modelling the Electricity Value of Mauritius’ Sugarcane Industrial Ecosystem Using Systems Dynamics Approach

Sugar cane, grown widely in African countries, is known to be one of the most productive species in terms of its conversion of solar energy to chemical potential energy. However, the deployment and diffusion of this technology option on large scale basis is hindered by the complexity in bio-electricity generation. The conversion pathways across bio-electricity production involve water, energy, and land-use planning decision and policy making often occurs in separate and disconnected institutional entities. As such the analytical tools used in support of the decision making process are equally fragmented. In addition the supply of feedstock for electricity generation is limited to the crop harvest season. Let alone the supply is threatened by a wide range of factors among which includes declining sugar prices, competing priorities for land and water which hinder growth of this sector. The complexity warrants the need for decision support tools that can be used not only to broaden the understanding of electricity generation but provide ways of enhancing the energy value of sugarcane production systems in an integrated manner. Using Mauritius as an example this study applied Spatial Systems Dynamics Model (SSDM) that provides a platform for multi-disciplinary simulation. The model integrates the spatial complexity in biomass production, socio-technical complexities in electricity production, and environmental implications in terms of emission avoidance. The model provides multiple scenarios of bio-electricity generation projected from 2012 to 2035. The model highlights the significance of good policy interventions required to optimize electricity production, the potential environmental benefits, and technological improvements that are critical for decision-making especially to a small developing island like Mauritius, which depends heavily on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy demand

Connecting the resource nexus to basic urban service provision – with focus on water-energy interactions in New York City

Urban water and energy systems are crucial for sustainably meeting basic service demands in cities. This paper proposes and applies a technology-independent “reference resource-to-service system” framework for concurrent evaluation of urban water and energy system interventions and their ‘nexus’ or ‘interlinkages’. In a concrete application, data that approximate New York City conditions are used to evaluate a limited set of interventions in the residential sector, spanning from low-flow toilet shifts to extensive green roof installations. Results indicate that interventions motivated primarily by water management goals can considerably reduce energy use and contribute to mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, energy efficiency interventions can considerably reduce water use in addition to lowering emissions. However, interventions yielding the greatest reductions in energy use and emissions are not necessarily the most water conserving ones, and vice versa. Useful further research, expanding the present analysis should consider a broader set of resource interactions, towards a full climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) nexus approach. Overall, assessing the impacts, trade-offs and co-benefits from interventions in one urban resource system on others also holds promise as support for increased resource efficiency through integrated decision making

Desalination using renewable energy sources on the arid islands of South Aegean Sea

Water and energy supply are strongly interrelated and their efficient management is crucial for a sustainable future. Water and energy systems on several Greek islands face a number of pressing issues. Water supply is problematic as regards both to the water quality and quantity. There is significant lack of water on several islands and this is mainly dealt with tanker vessels which transport vast amounts of water from the mainland. At the same time island energy systems are congested and rely predominanty on fossil fuels, despite the abundant renewable energy potential. These issues may be addressed by combining desalination and renewable energy technologies. It is essential to analyse the feasibility of this possibility. This study focuses on developing a tool capable of designing and optimally sizing desalination and renewable energy units. Several parameters regarding an island's water demandand the desalination's energy requirements are taken into account as well as input data which concern technological performance, resource availability and economic data. The tool is applied on three islands in the South Aegean Sea, Patmos (large), Lipsoi (medium) ad Thirasia (small). Results of the modelling exercise show that the water selling price ranges from 1.45 euro/m^3 for the large island, while the corresponding value is about 2.6 euro/m^3 for the small island, figures significantly lower than the current water cost (7-9 euro/m^3)

Chapter 1 - Introductory chapter

Working Group III (WGIII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with assessing scientific research related to the mitigation of climate change. 'Mitigation' is the effort to control the human sources of climate change and their cumulative impacts, notably the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other pollutants, such as black carbon particles, that also affect the planet's energy balance. Mitigation also includes efforts to enhance the processes that remove GHGs from the atmosphere, known as sinks. Because mitigation lowers the anticipated effects of climate change as well as the risks of extreme impacts, it is part of a broader policy strategy that includes adaptation to climate impacts - a topic addressed in more detail in WGII. There is a special role for international cooperation on mitigation policies because most GHGs have long atmospheric lifetimes and mix throughout the global atmosphere. The effects of mitigation policies on economic growth, innovation, and spread of technologies and other important social goals also implicate international concern because nations are increasingly inter-linked through global trade and economic competition. The economic effects of action by one nation depend, in part, on the action of others as well. Yet, while climate change is fundamentally a global issue, the institutions needed for mitigation exist at many different domains of government, including the local and national level. This chapter introduces the major issues that arise in mitigation policy and also frames the rest of the WGIII Contribution to the AR5. First we focus on the main messages since the publication of AR4 in 2007. Then we look at the historical and future trends in emissions and driving forces, noting that the scale of the mitigation challenge has grown enormously since 2007 due to rapid growth of the world economy and the continued lack of much overt effort to control emissions. This trend raises questions about the viability of widely discussed goals such as limiting climate warming to 2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial period. Then we look at the conceptual issues - such as sustainable development, green growth, and risk management - that frame the mitigation challenge and how those concepts are used in practice. Finally, we offer a roadmap for the rest of the volume