Going beyond instrument interactions: towards a more comprehensive policy mix conceptualization for environmental technological change

Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a key role. Several studies of policies supporting environmental technological change have argued for the need to combine different policy instruments in so-called policy mixes. However, existing policy mix studies often fall short of reflecting the complexity and dynamics of actual policy mixes and the underlying politics of (re)designing them. In this paper we take a first step towards a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary policy mix concept for environmental technological change based on a review of the bodies of literature on innovation studies, environmental economics and policy analysis. The concept introduces a clear terminology and consists of the three building blocks elements, processes and characteristics, which can be delineated by several dimensions. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concept using the example of the policy mix for fostering the transition of the German energy system to renewable power generation technologies. We argue that the proposed concept provides an integrating analytical framework for empirical studies analyzing the impact of the policy mix on environmental technological change and sustainability transitions more broadly. Finally, we derive policy implications and suggest avenues for future research

Cross-country comparison of the replacement incentives of the EU ETS in 2008-12: the case of the power sector

In this paper, we conduct a cross-country quantitative analysis of the replacement incentives generated by the EU ETS for the power sector in 2008-12. In order to do so, the allocation rules of the Member States are applied to concrete reference power plants for three different fuel types (lignite, hard coal and gas). Based on these calculations, we compare installation-specific replacement in-centives across the Member States. Our analysis shows that replacement incentives vary significantly across Member States and typically deviate from the incentives provided in the reference case of full auctioning. Furthermore, the EU ETS allocation rules lead to perverse incentives in approximately 30% of the possible replacement options. Only 5 MS do not provide any perverse incentives. Finally, we explore the link between replacement incentives and allocation types. Based on our findings, we derive policy recommendations for the design of emission trading schemes emerging around the world. --EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS),replacement,adoption,diffusion,power sector,allocation rules

[Review] OECD (2015) System innovation: synthesis report

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The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies: findings for Germany

This paper provides an overview of early changes in the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies which have been triggered by the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Based on a broad definition of the sector, our research analyses the impact of the EU ETS on the four building blocks knowledge and technologies, actors and networks, institutions and demand by combining two streams of literature, namely systems of innovation and environmental economics. Our analysis is based on 42 exploratory inter-views with German and European experts in the field of the EU ETS, the power sector and technological innovation. We find that the EU ETS mainly affects the rate and direction of the technological change of power generation technologies within the large-scale, coal-based power generation technological regime to which carbon capture technologies are added as a new technological trajectory. While this impact can be interpreted as defensive behaviour of incumbents, the observed changes should not be underestimated. We argue that the EU ETS' impact on corporate CO2 culture and routines may prepare the ground for the transition to a low carbon sectoral innovation system for power generation tech-nologies. --EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS),innovation system,power sector

Incentives for energy efficiency in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This paper explores the incentives for energy efficiency induced by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for installations in the energy and industry sectors. Our analysis of the National Allocation Plans for 27 EU Member States for phase 2 of the EU ETS (2008-2012) suggests that the price and cost effects for improvements in carbon and energy efficiency in the energy and industry sectors will be stronger than in phase 1 (2005-2007), but only because the European Commission has substantially reduced the number of allowances to be allocated by the Member States. To the extent that companies from these sectors (notably power producers) pass through the extra costs for carbon, higher prices for allowances translate into stronger incentives for demand- side energy efficiency. With the cuts in allocation to energy and industry sectors these will be forced to greater reductions, thus the non-ET sectors like household, tertiary and transport will have to reduce less, which is more in line with the cost-efficient share of emission reductions. The findings also imply that domestic efficiency improvements in the energy and industry sectors may remain limited since companies can make substantial use of credits from the Kyoto Mechanisms. The analysis of the rules for existing installations, new projects and closures suggests that incentives for energy efficiency are higher in phase 2 than in phase 1 because of the increased application of benchmarking to new and existing installations and because a lower share of allowances will be allocated for free. Nevertheless, there is still ample scope to further improve the EU ETS so that the full potential for energy efficiency can be realized. --Climate policy,emission trading,energy efficiency,innovation

An early assessment of national allocation plans for phase 2 of EU emission trading

Based on 18 National Allocation Plans (NAP) for phase 2 (2008-2012) of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), we explore to which extent individual Member States (MS) intend to use the ETS effectively and efficiently to reduce CO2 emissions. Our analyses at the macro level of these NAPs show that on average the ET-budgets in phase 2 are only about 3 % lower than the budgets in phase 1 (2005-2007), historical emissions in 2005 and projected emissions in 2010. While on average, the old MS intend to reduce emissions by about 10 %, compared to projected emissions, the im-plied excess allocation in the new MS is more than 20 %. When compared with a cost-efficient split of the required emission reductions, the ET-budgets in the EU-15 MS are generally too large. Thus, the burden for non-trading sectors (households, tertiary and transport) will be too high. Noteworthy are also the high shares of governments' intended and companies' possible use of Kyoto Mechanisms, which challenge the traditional position held by the EU on supplementarity. In general, our analyses at the micro level of the allocation methods (across countries and phases) suggest that MS tend to stick with the oncepts and methodologies developed in phase 1, unless these actually contradict rulings by the European Commission. Thus the progress made towards more efficient and more harmonized allocation rules is generally small. With some variation, all NAPs include persistent inefficient rules for closures and new installations which distort dynamic innovation incentives and tend to preserve existing production structures. Observed improvements include a (rather small) increase in auctioning and the use of benchmarking for existing and new installations. Also, the NAPs of a few old MS have simplified special provisions for process-related emissions or combined heat and power. In contrast, new MS have often introduced such provisions in phase 2. We conclude that potentials to improve environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency are far from being tapped. Improvements crucially hinge on the outcome of the European Commission's review process. --

What makes them believe in the low-carbon energy transition? Exploring corporate perceptions of the credibility of climate policy mixes

The credibility of climate policy has been identified as paramount factor for low-carbon investment and innovation and is thus key to achieving the decarbonization objectives set out in the Paris Agreement. Yet, despite its importance, we have only limited insights at present into how such policy credibility is formed. To address this gap, we explore whether and to what extent corporate perceptions of policy credibility depend on the current policy mix. We draw on the case of the German Energiewende and rely on data collected in 2014 in a survey of German manufacturers of renewable power generation technologies. We analyzed the answers of 390 companies using a linear regression model and found that corporate perceptions of policy credibility are mainly shaped by two characteristics of the policy mix: the coherence of policymaking and implementa-tion, and the consistency of the policy mix. Changes in the design of the core demand-pull instrument (in Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act, EEG) and the nucle-ar phase-out policy are also important as are Germany’s targets for the expansion of renewable energies. These insights enable us to derive broader policy and research implications concerning climate policy credibility

The innovation impact of EU emission trading: findings of company case studies in the German power sector

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the core climate policy instrument of the European Union has impacted innovation. Towards this end, we investigate the impact of the EU ETS on research, development, and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, and organizational change. In doing so, we pay particular attention to the rela-tive influences of context factors (policy mix, market factors, public acceptance) as well as firm characteristics (value chain position, technology portfolio, size, vision). Empirically, our analysis is based on multiple case studies with 19 power generators, technology providers, and project developers in the German power sector which we conducted from June 2008 until June 2009. We find that the innovation impact of the EU ETS has remained limited so far because of the scheme’s initial lack in stringency and predictability and the relatively greater importance of context factors. Additionally, the impact varies tremendously across technologies, firms, and innovation dimensions, and is most pronounced for RD&D on carbon capture technologies and corporate procedural change. Our analysis suggests that the EU ETS by itself may not provide sufficient incentives for fundamental changes in corporate climate innovation activities at a level adequate for reaching political long-term targets. Based on the study’s findings, we derive a set of policy and research recommendations. --EU ETS,emission trading,innovation,technological change,adoption,diffusion,organizational change,power sector

The role of the regulatory framework for innovation activities: The EU ETS and the German paper industry

Based on a research framework which combines environmental economics and innovation studies, we explore the relevance of the regulatory framework for innovation activities in the German paper industry, with a focus on climate poli-cies. Innovation activities considered include research and development, adop-tion and organizational change. Empirically, we mainly rely on the survey data of paper producers and technology providers. Findings suggest that innovation activities are mainly governed by market factors and (as yet) are hardly affected by the European Emission Trading System and other climate policies. Also, the impact of these policies on innovation activities is lower for technology providers than for paper producers. However, the majority of companies expect the ef-fects of the regulatory climate policy framework on innovation to increase by 2020. --

Unpacking policy processes for addressing systemic problems in technological innovation systems: the case of offshore wind in Germany

While empirical studies on technological innovation systems (TIS) usually focus on policy instruments and their suitability for curing identified weaknesses of such emerging systems, the underlying policy processes and their effects have been largely disregarded. We address this gap by exploring the style of two crucial policy-making processes and how it influences the functioning and performance of a TIS, taking the case of offshore wind in Germany. Our findings indicate important positive and negative impacts of the policy style on the TIS. For example, the muddling through character apparent in one of the policy processes negatively influenced entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development and finally technology diffusion, whereas the participatory nature of both processes had a positive impact both on TIS functioning and performance. Based on our findings we derive implications on how to improve policy making so as to foster the development of an emerging TIS