Annual Timing of Elk Abortions and Potential Brucellosis Risk

The transmission of Brucella abortus, the bacteria causing brucellosis, occurs through abortion events. In this study, we investigated the timing of those abortion events using vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in pregnant elk (Cervus elaphus) from the Jackson and Pinedale regions of Wyoming. From 2006 to 2013, we captured 463 pregnant female elk and 136 of those were seropositive (29%, 95% CI = [25, 34]). We had a total of 29 abortion events with 20 percent (95%CI = [13, 29]) of seropositive elk aborting compared to 2.2 percent (95% CI =[0.8, 4.5]) of seronegative elk aborting. VIT data are left-truncated, right and interval censored. We analyzed these data in a Bayesian framework borrowing from the survival analysis literature to estimate the baseline hazard and how it changes during the year. When we conducted a joint analysis of both abortions and births our preliminary results indicated that elk abortions are concentrated in March and April. Only three abortions occurred after 20 May  and one may have occurred as late as 10 July. These results are relevant to mitigating the risk of transmission between elk and cattle. Future work can build upon these results to assess the amount of brucellosis transmission risk during the winter on private land compared to public grazing allotments, which are used later in the year

Adaptive Management of Winter Elk Feedgrounds in Western Wyoming as a Long-Term Strategy for Reducing Brucellosis in Elk While Maintaining Separation from Cattle: A Work in Progress

Brucellosis is of large economic and management concern in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) where wildlife remain the last reservoir of the disease in the United States. Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) management of brucellosis has focused on separation of elk (Cervus elaphus) and cattle (Bos taurus) through operation of 22 winter feedgrounds, which originated to prevent elk starvation and elk damage. Although feedgrounds perpetuate the spread of brucellosis among elk, they are largely maintained to prevent disease spillover to cattle. Despite efforts, recent brucellosis occurrences in Wyoming cattle during 2004-2008 were linked to feedground elk. Therefore, numerous research projects conducted during 2006-2008 were aimed at developing feedground management strategies that lead to long-term brucellosis reductions in elk. Major research results lead the WGFD to development of the Target Feedground Project, which manipulates feeding management to reduce brucellosis in elk. This project was first implemented in winter 2007-08 and is conducted exclusively at target feedgrounds, where perceived elk-cattle commingling risk is low and there is a high potential for elk to free range in late winter/early spring. The first objective is to reduce elk densities while on feedgrounds by using low-density feeding. The second objective is to reduce duration of high elk concentration by manipulating end-feeding season date through systematic reductions in hay rations in late winter and early spring, with the goal of ending an average of 3-4 weeks earlier than long-term means. Advantages of this project, if successful, are sustainable reductions in elk brucellosis and decreased risk to cattle, lower elk feeding costs, and continued operation of feedgrounds to minimize elk-cattle commingling, elk damage, and sustain elk numbers that meet public expectation. Disadvantages are that the project is not suitable for all feedgrounds and elk on target feedgrounds remain susceptible to new diseases that may arise

Geo-Statistical Methods for Detecting Elk Parturition Sites from GPS Collar Data

There is an increasing awareness of the importance of juvenile survival in ungulate population dynamics, and the accurate prediction of parturition habitat may allow for more effective management. Detecting birth sites in a statistically rigorous way, however, often requires intensive field efforts that may not be possible for all studies. We developed a hierarchical two-stage clustering analysis for identifying elk parturition locations, which can be conducted retrospectively using only GPS location data. We validated our approach using a dataset of 59 adult female elk ( Cervus elaphus) fitted with both a Global Positioning System (GPS) collar (30-minute sampling interval) and vaginal implant transmitter (VIT) For the top parameter set, approximately 80% of estimable parturition sites were within 1 km of their respective VIT location. Roughly 10 % of our predicted birthing locations were over 2 km away from the VIT location, but many of these events could be filtered from the analyses due to their clustering attributes. Designed to minimize Type II errors this filtering also removes a subset of birthing sites that close to VIT locations, and magnitude of this effect varied across parameter sets. Sub-sampling of the GPS dataset from 30 min to 1, 2, 3, and 6 hour intervals resulted in modest reductions in the efficacy of our approach. With the use of GPS collars in ungulate studies on the rise, our approach provides managers with additional information on birth site locations at no additional cost over and above a typical GPS study

Parsing the Effects of Demography, Climate and Management on Recurrent Brucellosis Outbreaks in Elk

Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well‐being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography and management control programmes on disease dynamics. Using \u3e20 years of serologic, demographic and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free‐ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. We evaluated the effectiveness of test‐and‐slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test‐and‐slaughter temporarily reduced herd‐level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. Synthesis and applications. Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer‐term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns

Elk Contact Patterns and Potential Disease Transmission

Understanding the drivers of contact rates among individuals is critical to understanding disease dynamics and implementing targeted control measures. We studied the interaction patterns of 149 female elk (Cervus elaphus) distributed across five different regions of western Wyoming over three years, defining a contact as an approach within one body length (~2m). Using hierarchical models that account for correlations within individuals, pairs and groups, we found that pairwise contact rates within a group declined by a factor of three as group sizes increased 30-fold. Meanwhile, per capita contact rates increased with group size due to the increasing number of potential pairs. We found similar patterns for the duration of contacts. Supplemental feeding of elk had a limited impact on pairwise interaction rates and durations, but increased per capita rates more than two times higher. Variation in contact patterns were driven more by environmental factors such as group size than either individual or pairwise differences. Female elk in this region fall between the expectation of contact rates that linearly increase with group size (as assumed by pseudo-mass action models of disease transmission) or are constant with changes in group size (as assumed by frequency dependent transmission models). Our statistical approach decomposes the variation in contact rate into individual, dyadic, and environmental effects, which provides insight into those factors that are important for effective disease control programs

Winter Feeding of Elk in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and its Effects on Disease Dynamics

Providing food to wildlife during periods when natural food is limited results in aggregations that may facilitate disease transmission. This is exemplified in western Wyoming where institutional feeding over the past century has aimed to mitigate wildlife–livestock conflict and minimize winter mortality of elk (Cervus canadensis). Here we review research across 23 winter feedgrounds where the most studied disease is brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus. Traditional veterinary practices (vaccination, test-and-slaughter) have thus far been unable to control this disease in elk, which can spill over to cattle. Current disease-reduction efforts are being guided by ecological research on elk movement and density, reproduction, stress, co-infections and scavengers. Given the right tools, feedgrounds could provide opportunities for adaptive management of brucellosis through regular animal testing and population-level manipulations. Our analyses of several such manipulations highlight the value of a research–management partnership guided by hypothesis testing, despite the constraints of the sociopolitical environment. However, brucellosis is now spreading in unfed elk herds, while other diseases (e.g. chronic wasting disease) are of increasing concern at feedgrounds. Therefore experimental closures of feedgrounds, reduced feeding and lower elk populations merit consideration

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass