Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening

Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening. Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs

Population-based colorectal cancer screening programmes using a faecal immunochemical test:Should faecal haemoglobin cut-offs differ by age and sex?

Abstract Background The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme has both high participation rate and high compliance rate of colonoscopy after a positive faecal occult blood test (FIT). Although, colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with biannual (FIT) has shown to reduce CRC mortality, the ultimate effectiveness of the screening programmes depends on the accuracy of FIT and post-FIT colonoscopy, and thus, harms related to false results might not be underestimated. Current CRC screening programmes use a single faecal haemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) cut-off for colonoscopy referral for both sexes and all ages. We aimed to determine optimum f-Hb cut-offs by sex and age without compromising neoplasia detection and interval cancer proportion. Methods Prospective cohort study using a single-sample faecal immunochemical test (FIT) on 444,582 invited average-risk subjects aged 50–69 years. A result was considered positive at ≥20 μg Hb/g faeces. Outcome measures were analysed by sex and age for a wide range of f-Hb cut-offs. Results We analysed 17,387 positive participants in the programme who underwent colonoscopy. Participation rate was 66.5%. Men had a positivity rate for f-Hb of 8.3% and women 4.8% (p < 0.0001). The detection rate for advanced neoplasia (cancer plus advanced adenoma) was 44.0‰ for men and 15.9‰ for women (p < 0.0001). The number of colonoscopies required decreased in both sexes and all age groups through increasing the f-Hb cut-off. However, the loss in CRC detection increased by up to 28.1% in men and 22.9% in women. CRC missed were generally at early stages (Stage I-II: from 70.2% in men to 66.3% in women). Conclusions This study provides detailed outcomes in men and women of different ages at a range of f-Hb cut-offs. We found differences in positivity rates, neoplasia detection rate, number needed to screen, and interval cancers in men and women and in younger and older groups. However, there are factors other than sex and age to consider when consideration is given to setting the f-Hb cut-off

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Metadata for Data dIscoverability aNd Study rEplicability in obseRVAtional Studies (MINERVA): Development and Pilot of a Metadata List and Catalogue in Europe

Purpose: Metadata for data dIscoverability aNd study rEplicability in obseRVAtional studies (MINERVA), a European Medicines Agency–funded project (EUPAS39322), defined a set of metadata to describe real-world data sources (RWDSs) and piloted metadata collection in a prototype catalogue to assist investigators from data source discoverability through study conduct. Methods: A list of metadata was created from a review of existing metadata catalogues and recommendations, structured interviews, a stakeholder survey, and a technical workshop. The prototype was designed to comply with the FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable), using MOLGENIS software. Metadata collection was piloted by 15 data access partners (DAPs) from across Europe. Results: A total of 442 metadata variables were defined in six domains: institutions (organizations connected to a data source); data banks (data collections sustained by an organization); data sources (collections of linkable data banks covering a common underlying population); studies; networks (of institutions); and common data models (CDMs). A total of 26 institutions were recorded in the prototype. Each DAP populated the metadata of one data source and its selected data banks. The number of data banks varied by data source; the most common data banks were hospital administrative records and pharmacy dispensation records (10 data sources each). Quantitative metadata were successfully extracted from three data sources conforming to different CDMs and entered into the prototype. Conclusions: A metadata list was finalized, a prototype was successfully populated, and a good practice guide was developed. Setting up and maintaining a metadata catalogue on RWDSs will require substantial effort to support discoverability of data sources and reproducibility of studies in Europe

Detailed stratified GWAS analysis for severe COVID-19 in four European populations

Given the highly variable clinical phenotype of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a deeper analysis of the host genetic contribution to severe COVID-19 is important to improve our understanding of underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we describe an extended genome-wide association meta-analysis of a well-characterized cohort of 3255 COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure and 12 488 population controls from Italy, Spain, Norway and Germany/Austria, including stratified analyses based on age, sex and disease severity, as well as targeted analyses of chromosome Y haplotypes, the human leukocyte antigen region and the SARS-CoV-2 peptidome. By inversion imputation, we traced a reported association at 17q21.31 to a ~0.9-Mb inversion polymorphism that creates two highly differentiated haplotypes and characterized the potential effects of the inversion in detail. Our data, together with the 5th release of summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative including non-Caucasian individuals, also identified a new locus at 19q13.33, including NAPSA, a gene which is expressed primarily in alveolar cells responsible for gas exchange in the lung.S.E.H. and C.A.S. partially supported genotyping through a philanthropic donation. A.F. and D.E. were supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and COVID-19 grant Research (BMBF; ID:01KI20197); A.F., D.E. and F.D. were supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Cluster of Excellence ‘Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation’ (EXC2167). D.E. was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the Computational Life Sciences funding concept (CompLS grant 031L0165). D.E., K.B. and S.B. acknowledge the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF14CC0001 and NNF17OC0027594). T.L.L., A.T. and O.Ö. were funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), project numbers 279645989; 433116033; 437857095. M.W. and H.E. are supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the Research Training Group 1743, ‘Genes, Environment and Inflammation’. L.V. received funding from: Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute (RF-2016-02364358), Italian Ministry of Health ‘CV PREVITAL’—strategie di prevenzione primaria cardiovascolare primaria nella popolazione italiana; The European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) for the project LITMUS- and for the project ‘REVEAL’; Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda ‘Ricerca corrente’, Fondazione Sviluppo Ca’ Granda ‘Liver-BIBLE’ (PR-0391), Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda ‘5permille’ ‘COVID-19 Biobank’ (RC100017A). A.B. was supported by a grant from Fondazione Cariplo to Fondazione Tettamanti: ‘Bio-banking of Covid-19 patient samples to support national and international research (Covid-Bank). This research was partly funded by an MIUR grant to the Department of Medical Sciences, under the program ‘Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018–2022’. This study makes use of data generated by the GCAT-Genomes for Life. Cohort study of the Genomes of Catalonia, Fundació IGTP (The Institute for Health Science Research Germans Trias i Pujol) IGTP is part of the CERCA Program/Generalitat de Catalunya. GCAT is supported by Acción de Dinamización del ISCIII-MINECO and the Ministry of Health of the Generalitat of Catalunya (ADE 10/00026); the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR) (2017-SGR 529). M.M. received research funding from grant PI19/00335 Acción Estratégica en Salud, integrated in the Spanish National RDI Plan and financed by ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluación and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (European Regional Development Fund (FEDER)-Una manera de hacer Europa’). B.C. is supported by national grants PI18/01512. X.F. is supported by the VEIS project (001-P-001647) (co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), ‘A way to build Europe’). Additional data included in this study were obtained in part by the COVICAT Study Group (Cohort Covid de Catalunya) supported by IsGlobal and IGTP, European Institute of Innovation & Technology (EIT), a body of the European Union, COVID-19 Rapid Response activity 73A and SR20-01024 La Caixa Foundation. A.J. and S.M. were supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (grant numbers: PSE-010000-2006-6 and IPT-010000-2010-36). A.J. was also supported by national grant PI17/00019 from the Acción Estratégica en Salud (ISCIII) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER). The Basque Biobank, a hospital-related platform that also involves all Osakidetza health centres, the Basque government’s Department of Health and Onkologikoa, is operated by the Basque Foundation for Health Innovation and Research-BIOEF. M.C. received Grants BFU2016-77244-R and PID2019-107836RB-I00 funded by the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI, Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER, EU). M.R.G., J.A.H., R.G.D. and D.M.M. are supported by the ‘Spanish Ministry of Economy, Innovation and Competition, the Instituto de Salud Carlos III’ (PI19/01404, PI16/01842, PI19/00589, PI17/00535 and GLD19/00100) and by the Andalussian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018, COVID-Premed, COVID GWAs). The position held by Itziar de Rojas Salarich is funded by grant FI20/00215, PFIS Contratos Predoctorales de Formación en Investigación en Salud. Enrique Calderón’s team is supported by CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), ‘Instituto de Salud Carlos III’. J.C.H. reports grants from Research Council of Norway grant no 312780 during the conduct of the study. E.S. reports grants from Research Council of Norway grant no. 312769. The BioMaterialBank Nord is supported by the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Airway Research Center North (ARCN). The BioMaterialBank Nord is member of popgen 2.0 network (P2N). P.K. Bergisch Gladbach, Germany and the Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. He is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). O.A.C. is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Research and Education and is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy—CECAD, EXC 2030–390661388. The COMRI cohort is funded by Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. This work was supported by grants of the Rolf M. Schwiete Stiftung, the Saarland University, BMBF and The States of Saarland and Lower Saxony. K.U.L. is supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG, LU-1944/3-1). Genotyping for the BoSCO study is funded by the Institute of Human Genetics, University Hospital Bonn. F.H. was supported by the Bavarian State Ministry for Science and Arts. Part of the genotyping was supported by a grant to A.R. from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant: 01ED1619A, European Alzheimer DNA BioBank, EADB) within the context of the EU Joint Programme—Neurodegenerative Disease Research (JPND). Additional funding was derived from the German Research Foundation (DFG) grant: RA 1971/6-1 to A.R. P.R. is supported by the DFG (CCGA Sequencing Centre and DFG ExC2167 PMI and by SH state funds for COVID19 research). F.T. is supported by the Clinician Scientist Program of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Cluster of Excellence ‘Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation’ (EXC2167). C.L. and J.H. are supported by the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF). T.B., M.M.B., O.W. und A.H. are supported by the Stiftung Universitätsmedizin Essen. M.A.-H. was supported by Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion program, grant IJC2018-035131-I funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. E.C.S. is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; SCHU 2419/2-1).Peer reviewe

Detailed stratified GWAS analysis for severe COVID-19 in four European populations

Given the highly variable clinical phenotype of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a deeper analysis of the host genetic contribution to severe COVID-19 is important to improve our understanding of underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we describe an extended GWAS meta-analysis of a well-characterized cohort of 3,260 COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure and 12,483 population controls from Italy, Spain, Norway and Germany/Austria, including stratified analyses based on age, sex and disease severity, as well as targeted analyses of chromosome Y haplotypes, the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region and the SARS-CoV-2 peptidome. By inversion imputation, we traced a reported association at 17q21.31 to a highly pleiotropic ∼0.9-Mb inversion polymorphism and characterized the potential effects of the inversion in detail. Our data, together with the 5th release of summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, also identified a new locus at 19q13.33, including NAPSA, a gene which is expressed primarily in alveolar cells responsible for gas exchange in the lung.Andre Franke and David Ellinghaus were supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01KI20197), Andre Franke, David Ellinghaus and Frauke Degenhardt were supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Cluster of Excellence “Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation” (EXC2167). David Ellinghaus was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the Computational Life Sciences funding concept (CompLS grant 031L0165). David Ellinghaus, Karina Banasik and Søren Brunak acknowledge the Novo Nordisk Foundation (grant NNF14CC0001 and NNF17OC0027594). Tobias L. Lenz, Ana Teles and Onur Özer were funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), project numbers 279645989; 433116033; 437857095. Mareike Wendorff and Hesham ElAbd are supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through the Research Training Group 1743, "Genes, Environment and Inflammation". This project was supported by a Covid-19 grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; ID: 01KI20197). Luca Valenti received funding from: Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF2016-02364358, Italian Ministry of Health ""CV PREVITAL – strategie di prevenzione primaria cardiovascolare primaria nella popolazione italiana; The European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) for the project LITMUS- and for the project ""REVEAL""; Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda ""Ricerca corrente"", Fondazione Sviluppo Ca' Granda ""Liver-BIBLE"" (PR-0391), Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda ""5permille"" ""COVID-19 Biobank"" (RC100017A). Andrea Biondi was supported by the grant from Fondazione Cariplo to Fondazione Tettamanti: "Biobanking of Covid-19 patient samples to support national and international research (Covid-Bank). This research was partly funded by a MIUR grant to the Department of Medical Sciences, under the program "Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018–2022". This study makes use of data generated by the GCAT-Genomes for Life. Cohort study of the Genomes of Catalonia, Fundació IGTP. IGTP is part of the CERCA Program / Generalitat de Catalunya. GCAT is supported by Acción de Dinamización del ISCIIIMINECO and the Ministry of Health of the Generalitat of Catalunya (ADE 10/00026); the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR) (2017-SGR 529). Marta Marquié received research funding from ant PI19/00335 Acción Estratégica en Salud, integrated in the Spanish National RDI Plan and financed by ISCIIISubdirección General de Evaluación and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER-Una manera de hacer Europa").Beatriz Cortes is supported by national grants PI18/01512. Xavier Farre is supported by VEIS project (001-P-001647) (cofunded by European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), “A way to build Europe”). Additional data included in this study was obtained in part by the COVICAT Study Group (Cohort Covid de Catalunya) supported by IsGlobal and IGTP, EIT COVID-19 Rapid Response activity 73A and SR20-01024 La Caixa Foundation. Antonio Julià and Sara Marsal were supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (grant numbers: PSE-010000-2006-6 and IPT-010000-2010-36). Antonio Julià was also supported the by national grant PI17/00019 from the Acción Estratégica en Salud (ISCIII) and the FEDER. The Basque Biobank is a hospitalrelated platform that also involves all Osakidetza health centres, the Basque government's Department of Health and Onkologikoa, is operated by the Basque Foundation for Health Innovation and Research-BIOEF. Mario Cáceres received Grants BFU2016-77244-R and PID2019-107836RB-I00 funded by the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI, Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER, EU). Manuel Romero Gómez, Javier Ampuero Herrojo, Rocío Gallego Durán and Douglas Maya Miles are supported by the “Spanish Ministry of Economy, Innovation and Competition, the Instituto de Salud Carlos III” (PI19/01404, PI16/01842, PI19/00589, PI17/00535 and GLD19/00100), and by the Andalussian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018, COVID-Premed, COVID GWAs). The position held by Itziar de Rojas Salarich is funded by grant FI20/00215, PFIS Contratos Predoctorales de Formación en Investigación en Salud. Enrique Calderón's team is supported by CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), "Instituto de Salud Carlos III". Jan Cato Holter reports grants from Research Council of Norway grant no 312780 during the conduct of the study. Dr. Solligård: reports grants from Research Council of Norway grant no 312769. The BioMaterialBank Nord is supported by the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Airway Research Center North (ARCN). The BioMaterialBank Nord is member of popgen 2.0 network (P2N). Philipp Koehler has received non-financial scientific grants from Miltenyi Biotec GmbH, Bergisch Gladbach, Germany, and the Cologne Excellence Cluster on Cellular Stress Responses in Aging-Associated Diseases, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. He is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).Oliver A. Cornely is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Research and Education and is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – CECAD, EXC 2030 – 390661388. The COMRI cohort is funded by Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. Genotyping was performed by the Genotyping laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki. This work was supported by grants of the Rolf M. Schwiete Stiftung, the Saarland University, BMBF and The States of Saarland and Lower Saxony. Kerstin U. Ludwig is supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG, LU-1944/3-1). Genotyping for the BoSCO study is funded by the Institute of Human Genetics, University Hospital Bonn. Frank Hanses was supported by the Bavarian State Ministry for Science and Arts. Part of the genotyping was supported by a grant to Alfredo Ramirez from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant: 01ED1619A, European Alzheimer DNA BioBank, EADB) within the context of the EU Joint Programme – Neurodegenerative Disease Research (JPND). Additional funding was derived from the German Research Foundation (DFG) grant: RA 1971/6-1 to Alfredo Ramirez. Philip Rosenstiel is supported by the DFG (CCGA Sequencing Centre and DFG ExC2167 PMI and by SH state funds for COVID19 research). Florian Tran is supported by the Clinician Scientist Program of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Cluster of Excellence “Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation” (EXC2167). Christoph Lange and Jan Heyckendorf are supported by the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF). Thorsen Brenner, Marc M Berger, Oliver Witzke und Anke Hinney are supported by the Stiftung Universitätsmedizin Essen. Marialbert Acosta-Herrera was supported by Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion program, grant IJC2018-035131-I funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. Eva C Schulte is supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; SCHU 2419/2-1).N