Catalysts for regional development: putting territorial coordination in practice

Lack of coordination among agencies at project level and scarce promotion of contracts at micro-scale are critical gaps widely spread in many Latin American regions. We discuss some specific and feasible mechanisms, namely: (i) alliances for rural development and (ii) contract promoters; that may play a catalytic role to deal with the mentioned problems. Based on a continuous improving integral strategy and an effective operative framework, these alliances would be prone to unveil areas for interventions and to channel them into the pipelines of the ministries, financing agencies or private investor initiatives. These alliances can assist in solving tradeoffs between enough economies of scale for enhancing capabilities and sufficient local knowledge. Also, they might reduce capture problems. Contract promoters on the other hand, can be viewed as facilitators for startup businesses. They evolve as enterprise incubators, with expertise for rural areas, projects and marketing; combined with a vision for development. Both catalysts have a synergetic effect for coordinating regional development and should be prominent in rural modernization agendas.Rural development, Catalyst, Experimental, Promoter, Local Governance, Applied Political Economy

How Would your Kids Vote if I Open my Doors? Evidence from Venezuela

For how long does cultural heritage persist? Do the culturally inherited values of immigrants dilute as generations pass? We answer these question by studying the relationship between revealed political behavior of immigrant families and the culture of the place where they migrated from, either one or many generations ago. Using surnames as indicators of region of origin of Italians in Venezuela, we study the effect of cultural heritage on two indicators of revealed political behavior: (i) propensity for civic engagement, and (ii) propensity for redistribution. A well established literature documents greater propensity for civic engagement and lower propensity for redistribution among Northern Italians. In Venezuela, we measure the former by turnout before the era of political polarization and the latter by signing behavior against Hugo Chávez in the 2004 recall referendum drive. Despite the fact that the wave of Italian immigration to Venezuela occurred more than half a century before the events studied in this paper, we do not find a greater propensity for civic engagement nor preference against redistribution among descendants from Northern as opposed to Southern Italians, suggesting that cultural assimilation may be a strong determinant of political behavior in the long run.Social capital, political incorporation of immigrants, family economics, redistribution, political preferences, civic engagement, Latin America

How Would Your Kids Vote if I Open my Doors? Evidence from Venezuela

For how long does cultural heritage persist? Do the culturally inherited values of immigrants dilute as generations pass? We answer these question by studying the relationship between revealed political behavior of immigrant families and the culture of the place where they migrated from, either one or many generations ago. Using surnames as indicators of region of origin of Italians in Venezuela, we study the effect of cultural heritage on two indicators of revealed political behavior: (i) propensity for civic engagement, and (ii) propensity for redistribution. A well established literature documents greater propensity for civic engagement and lower propensity for redistribution among Northern Italians. In Venezuela, we measure the former by turnout before the era of political polarization and the latter by signing behavior against Hugo Chávez in the 2004 recall referendum drive. Despite the fact that the wave of Italian immigration to Venezuela occurred more than half a century before the events studied in this paper, we do not find a greater propensity for civic engagement nor preference against redistribution among descendants from Northern as opposed to Southern Italians, suggesting that cultural assimilation may be a strong determinant of political behavior in the long run.Social capital, political incorporation of immigrants, family economics, redistribution, political preferences, civic engagement, Latin America

New exports from emerging markets: do followers benefit from pioneers ?

Since Arrow (1962), spillovers from pioneer to follower in non-excludable innovations are central to our understanding of endogenous economic growth. Nonetheless, evidence of these spillovers in less-developed economies has been elusive. Our paper contributes by showing novel facts consistent with externalities in new export products. To avoid biases towards ex-post successes, we use data on the universe of customs transactions from Chile (1990- 2006). We find that, first, follower firms are more likely to enter a product if the pioneer firm survives exporting. More importantly, we also find that pioneers enter and remain smaller than followers, which is indicative that the first exporter may not be the firm that benets the most from the discovery. This fact is inconsistent with the currently standard view in international trade, in which the largest firm would be the first willing to pay a homogeneous sunk cost of exporting. In contrast, our facts are consistent with the view that smaller pioneer exporters are data producers, whose spillovers benet larger followers. We offer a simple model to formalize this intuition, based on the idea that large exporters have more choices on how to allocate their managerial capacity. This real option makes large exporters wait, as to assign their marginal manager on the best possible project. In contrast, smaller and more focused firms prefer to be pioneers.economic growth; innovation; externalities; first-mover-advantage

Growth Collapses

We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of business-cycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with the entry of countries into these episodes as well as their duration. We find that while countries fall into crises for multiple reasons, including wars, export collapses, sudden stops and political transitions, most of these variables do not help predict the duration of crises episodes. In contrast, we find that a measure of the density of a country’s export product space is significantly associated with lower crisis duration. We also find that unconditional and conditional hazard rates are decreasing in time, a fact that is consistent with either strong shocks to fundamentals or with models of poverty traps.

Species survival and scaling laws in hostile and disordered environments

In this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for surviving in the long time dynamics. We propose a measure for the critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio (PR) of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate, etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case.Comment: 20 pages, 5 Figure

Why don't all exporters benefit from free trade agreements? Estimating utilization costs

Free Trade Agreements (FTA) attract significant interest, but after these treaties are signed not all exporters use them. We provide a model of heterogeneous utilization, also developing a novel method to estimate treaty-utilization costs. We later apply the model to estimate the evolution utilization costs for the FTA between the US and a small open economy, Chile. Consistent with other studies, we find that utilization is indeed partial (on average 67% on the first year of the treaty, with 10 percentage points more at the third year). This made tariff revenues to the US 10% higher than expected with full utilization. Our simple structural model identifies costs by exploiting the indifference condition for the smallest firm that uses the treaty. Empirically we find that estimated costs were very heterogeneous across products. For almost half the products the cost was not binding for any exporter. However, when the FTA started, the 75-th percentile of utilization cost was around US$3,000, requiring shipments above$80,000 to justify using the treaty. These costs decreased by 60-80% in the following years, consistent with models of learning about treaty use. As remarked in our model, small exporters that do not use the trade agreement could even suffer when large firms have the option of using the treaty, since the latterincrease exports and may push up factor prices for the industry

Supporting Defect Causal Analysis in Practice with Cross-Company Data on Causes of Requirements Engineering Problems

[Context] Defect Causal Analysis (DCA) represents an efficient practice to improve software processes. While knowledge on cause-effect relations is helpful to support DCA, collecting cause-effect data may require significant effort and time. [Goal] We propose and evaluate a new DCA approach that uses cross-company data to support the practical application of DCA. [Method] We collected cross-company data on causes of requirements engineering problems from 74 Brazilian organizations and built a Bayesian network. Our DCA approach uses the diagnostic inference of the Bayesian network to support DCA sessions. We evaluated our approach by applying a model for technology transfer to industry and conducted three consecutive evaluations: (i) in academia, (ii) with industry representatives of the Fraunhofer Project Center at UFBA, and (iii) in an industrial case study at the Brazilian National Development Bank (BNDES). [Results] We received positive feedback in all three evaluations and the cross-company data was considered helpful for determining main causes. [Conclusions] Our results strengthen our confidence in that supporting DCA with cross-company data is promising and should be further investigated.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, accepted for the 39th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE'17