The volume of ERCP per endoscopist is associated with a higher technical success and a lower post-ERCP pancreatitis rate. A prospective analysis

Introduction: conflicting results have been reported regarding the influence of the annual volume of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) on outcome. Objective: to evaluate the influence of case volume on ERCP outcomes. Patients and methods: an analysis of a prospective database was performed, comparing the outcomes of ERCP in three consecutive periods defined by the number of endoscopists performing ERCP: five endoscopists in period I (P1), four in period II (P2) and three in period III (P3). Only patients with biliary ERCP in accessible and naïve papilla were included. Primary variables were cannulation rates and adverse effects (AE). The American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) complexity grades III and IV were considered as highly complex procedures. Results: a total of 2,561 patients were included: 727 (P1), 972 (P2) and 862 (P3). There were no differences in age and sex between groups (p > 0.05). The cannulation rate was significantly higher in P2 and P3: 92.4 % vs 93.3 % vs 93 % (p = 0.037). The AE rate was 13.8 %, 12.6 % and 10.3 % (p > 0.05), respectively. The rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis was significantly lower in P3: 8.5 %, 7.3 % and 5 % (p = 0.01). The rate of complex procedures was 12 %, 14.8 % and 27 % (p < 0.0001), respectively. Two endoscopists participated in all periods and only one had significantly improved outcomes. Cannulation and post-ERCP pancreatitis rates remained significantly better in P3 after adjusting for sex, complexity and endoscopist. Conclusion: a higher annual volume of ERCP per endoscopist was associated with a higher rate of cannulation and a lower rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis, despite the greater complexity of the procedures. These beneficial effects seem to differ between endoscopists

The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation

Clustering COVID-19 ARDS patients through the first days of ICU admission. An analysis of the CIBERESUCICOVID Cohort

Background Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) can be classified into sub-phenotypes according to different inflammatory/clinical status. Prognostic enrichment was achieved by grouping patients into hypoinflammatory or hyperinflammatory sub-phenotypes, even though the time of analysis may change the classification according to treatment response or disease evolution. We aimed to evaluate when patients can be clustered in more than 1 group, and how they may change the clustering of patients using data of baseline or day 3, and the prognosis of patients according to their evolution by changing or not the cluster.Methods Multicenter, observational prospective, and retrospective study of patients admitted due to ARDS related to COVID-19 infection in Spain. Patients were grouped according to a clustering mixed-type data algorithm (k-prototypes) using continuous and categorical readily available variables at baseline and day 3.Results Of 6205 patients, 3743 (60%) were included in the study. According to silhouette analysis, patients were grouped in two clusters. At baseline, 1402 (37%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2341(63%) in cluster 2. On day 3, 1557(42%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2086 (57%) in cluster 2. The patients included in cluster 2 were older and more frequently hypertensive and had a higher prevalence of shock, organ dysfunction, inflammatory biomarkers, and worst respiratory indexes at both time points. The 90-day mortality was higher in cluster 2 at both clustering processes (43.8% [n = 1025] versus 27.3% [n = 383] at baseline, and 49% [n = 1023] versus 20.6% [n = 321] on day 3). Four hundred and fifty-eight (33%) patients clustered in the first group were clustered in the second group on day 3. In contrast, 638 (27%) patients clustered in the second group were clustered in the first group on day 3.Conclusions During the first days, patients can be clustered into two groups and the process of clustering patients may change as they continue to evolve. This means that despite a vast majority of patients remaining in the same cluster, a minority reaching 33% of patients analyzed may be re-categorized into different clusters based on their progress. Such changes can significantly impact their prognosis