Inter-hemispheric linkages in climate change: paleo-perspectives for future climate change

The Pole-Equator-Pole (PEP) projects of the PANASH (Paleoclimates of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere) programme have significantly advanced our understanding of past climate change on a global basis and helped to integrate paleo-science across regions and research disciplines. PANASH science allows us to constrain predictions for future climate change and to contribute to the management of consequent environmental changes. We identify three broad areas where PEP science makes key contributions. 1. The pattern of global changes. Knowing the exact timing of glacial advances (synchronous or otherwise) during the last glaciation is critical to understanding interhemispheric links in climate. Work in PEPI demonstrated that the tropical Andes in South America were deglaciated earlier than the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and that an extended warming began there ca. 21 000 cal years BP. The general pattern is consistent with Antarctica and has now been replicated from studies in Southern Hemisphere (SH) regions of the PEPII transect. That significant deglaciation of SH alpine systems and Antarctica led deglaciation of NH ice sheets may reflect either i) faster response times in alpine systems and Antarctica, ii) regional moisture patterns that influenced glacier mass balance, or iii) a SH temperature forcing that led changes in the NH. This highlights the limitations of current understanding and the need for further fundamental paleoclimate research. 2. Changes in modes of operation of oscillatory climate systems. Work across all the PEP transects has led to the recognition that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has changed markedly through time. It now appears that ENSO operated during the last glacial termination and during the early Holocene, but that precipitation teleconnections even within the Pacific Basin were turned down, or off. In the modern ENSO phenomenon both inter-annual and seven year periodicities are present, with the inter-annual signal dominant. Paleo-data demonstrate that the relative importance of the two periodicities changes through time, with longer periodicities dominant in the early Holocene. 3. The recognition of climate modulation of oscillatory systems by climate events. We examine the relationship of ENSO to a SH climate event, the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR), in the New Zealand region. We demonstrate that the onset of the ACR was associated with the apparent switching on of an ENSO signal in New Zealand. We infer that this related to enhanced zonal SW winds with the amplification of the pressure fields allowing an existing but weak ENSO signal to manifest itself. Teleconnections of this nature would be difficult to predict for future abrupt change as boundary conditions cannot readily be specified. Paleo-data are critical to predicting the teleconnections of future changes

Sedimentologic and palynologic records of the last deglaciation and Holocene from Ballston Lake, New York

Continuous pollen and sediment records from two ∼8.5-m-long cores document late Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentation and vegetation change in the Ballston Lake basin, eastern New York State. Pebbles at the base of both cores and the geomorphology of the watershed reflect the presence of the Mohawk River in the basin prior to ∼12,900 ± 70 cal yr B.P. Ballston Lake formed at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) by an avulsion of the Mohawk River. The transition from clay to gyttja with low magnetic susceptibility (MS), low bulk density, and high organic carbon indicates rapid warming and increased lake productivity beginning 11,020 cal yr B.P. MS measurements reveal that the influx of magnetic particles, associated with pre-Holocene clastic sedimentation, ceased after ∼10,780 cal yr B.P. The pollen record is subdivided into six zones: BL1 (12,920 to 11,020 cal yr B.P.) is dominated by boreal forest pollen; BL2 (11,020 to 10,780 cal yr B.P.) by pine (Pinus) forest pollen; BL3 (10,780 to 5290 cal yr B.P.) by hemlock (Tsuga) and mixed hardwood pollen; BL4 (5290 to 2680 cal yr B.P.) by mixed hardwood pollen; BL5a (2680 cal yr B.P. to 1030 cal yr B.P.) by conifer and mixed hardwood pollen; and BL5b (1030 cal B.P. to present) by increasing ragweed (Ambrosia) pollen. A 62% decrease in spruce (Picea) pollen in <320 cal years during BL1 reflects rapid warming at the end of the YD. Holocene pollen zones record more subtle climatic shifts than occurred at the end of the YD. One of the largest changes in the Holocene pollen spectra began ∼5300 cal yr B.P., and is characterized by a marked decline in hemlock pollen. This has been noted in other pollen records from the region and may record preferential selection of hemlock by a pathogen or parasites

Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes

Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes