Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (Mw = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand

The Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are inferred to have generated Mw = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85% probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a Mw = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows, river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami. Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area > 30 000 km2 and involve > 1billion m3 of material. Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area > 125 km2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire South Island and is likely to continue for several decades

Mode-coupling and nonlinear Landau damping effects in auroral Farley-Buneman turbulence

The fundamental problem of Farley-Buneman turbulence in the auroral $E$-region has been discussed and debated extensively in the past two decades. In the present paper we intend to clarify the different steps that the auroral $E$-region plasma has to undergo before reaching a steady state. The mode-coupling calculation, for Farley-Buneman turbulence, is developed in order to place it in perspective and to estimate its magnitude relative to the anomalous effects which arise through the nonlinear wave-particle interaction. This nonlinear effect, known as nonlinear ``Landau damping'' is due to the coupling of waves which produces other waves which in turn lose energy to the bulk of the particles by Landau damping. This leads to a decay of the wave energy and consequently a heating of the plasma. An equation governing the evolution of the field spectrum is derived and a physical interpration for each of its terms is provided

Inversion of Cycle Index Sum Relations for 2- and 3-Connected Graphs

AbstractAlgebraic inversion of cycle index sum relations is employed to derive new algorithms for counting unlabeled 2-connected graphs, homeomorphically irreducible 2-connected graphs, and 3-connected graphs. The new algorithms are significantly more efficient than earlier ones, both asymptotically and for modest values of the order. Tables of computed results are included

Researching trust in the police and trust in justice: a UK perspective

This paper describes the immediate and more distant origins of a programme of comparative research that is examining cross-national variations in public trust in justice and in the police. The programme is built around a module of the fifth European Social Survey, and evolved from a study funded by the European Commission. The paper describes the conceptual framework within which we are operating – developed in large measure from theories of procedural justice. It reviews some of the methodological issues raised by the use of sample surveys to research issues of public trust in the police, public perceptions of institutional legitimacy and compliance with the law. Finally it gives a flavour of some of the early findings emerging from the programme

When is policing fair? Groups, identity and judgements of the procedural justice of coercive crowd policing

Procedural justice theory (PJT) is now a widely utilised theoretical perspective in policing research that acknowledges the centrality of police ‘fairness’. Despite its widespread acceptance this paper asserts that there are conceptual limitations that emerge when applying the theory to the policing of crowd events. This paper contends that this problem with PJT is a result of specific assumptions that are highlighted by two studies using a novel experimental approach. Study 1 systematically manipulated the social categories used to describe crowd participants subjected to police coercion. The experiment demonstrates how these social categories dramatically affected participants’ perceptions of the same police action and that it was participants’ relational identification with the police, rather than a superordinate category, that mediated the association between judgements of procedural fairness and intentions to cooperate. In Study 2, using a quasi-experimental design, we then replicated and extended these findings by demonstrating how perceptions of procedural fairness are also influenced by levels of in-group identification. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the data for reconceptualising the social psychological processes mediating these judgements and impacts of police legitimacy

Normal modes of the elephant bell

The normal modes of a 16-tine elephant bell have been investigated using finite-element modeling, group representation methods and electronic speckle pattern interferometry. The experimental results are in good agreement with the model for about the first ten frequencies, and both are consistent with the predictions of group theory. It is found that the vibration spectrum can be understood by regarding the tines as a set of identical oscillators coupled in series in a closed loop with the hemispherical crown holding them in place, providing the coupling and, perhaps, acting as a sounding board

The landscape of gifted and talented education in England and Wales: How are teachers implementing policy?

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Research Papers in Education, 27(2), 167-186, 2012, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02671522.2010.509514.This paper explores the evidence relating to how primary schools are responding to the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in England and Wales. A questionnaire survey which invited both closed and open-ended responses was carried out with a national sample of primary schools. The survey indicated an increasing proportion of coordinators, compared with a survey carried out in 1996, were identifying their gifted and talented children as well as having associated school policies. However, the survey also highlighted a number of issues which need addressing if the initiative is to achieve its objective of providing the best possible educational opportunities for children. For example, it was found that a significant number of practitioners were not aware of the existence of the National Quality Standards for gifted and talented education, provided by the UK government in 2007, and the subject-specific criteria provided by the UK’s Curriculum Authority for identification and provision have been largely ignored. The process of identifying children to be placed on the ‘gifted and talented’ register seems haphazard and based on pragmatic reasons. Analysis of teachers’ responses also revealed a range of views and theoretical positioning held by them, which have implications for classroom practice. As the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in the UK is entering a second decade, and yet more significant changes in policy are introduced, pertinent questions need to be raised and given consideration

Optical and X-ray correlations during the 2015 outburst of the black hole V404 Cyg

We present a serendipitous multiwavelength campaign of optical photometry simultaneous with Integral X-ray monitoring of the 2015 outburst of the black hole V404 Cyg. Large-amplitude optical variability is generally correlated with X-rays, with lags of order a minute or less compatible with binary light travel time-scales or jet ejections. Rapid optical flaring on time-scales of seconds or less is incompatible with binary light-travel time-scales and has instead been associated with synchrotron emission from a jet. Both this rapid jet response and the lagged and smeared one can be present simultaneously. The optical brightness is not uniquely determined by the X-ray brightness, but the X-ray/optical relationship is bounded by a lower envelope such that at any given optical brightness there is a maximum X-ray brightness seen. This lower envelope traces out a Fopt∝F0.54X relation that can be approximately extrapolated back to quiescence. Rapid optical variability is only seen near this envelope, and these periods correspond to the hardest hard X-ray colours. This correlation between hard X-ray colour and optical variability (and anticorrelation with optical brightness) is a novel finding of this campaign, and apparently a facet of the outburst behaviour in V404 Cyg. It is likely that these correlations are driven by changes in the central accretion rate and geometry

Atmospheric Heating and Wind Acceleration: Results for Cool Evolved Stars based on Proposed Processes

A chromosphere is a universal attribute of stars of spectral type later than ~F5. Evolved (K and M) giants and supergiants (including the zeta Aurigae binaries) show extended and highly turbulent chromospheres, which develop into slow massive winds. The associated continuous mass loss has a significant impact on stellar evolution, and thence on the chemical evolution of galaxies. Yet despite the fundamental importance of those winds in astrophysics, the question of their origin(s) remains unsolved. What sources heat a chromosphere? What is the role of the chromosphere in the formation of stellar winds? This chapter provides a review of the observational requirements and theoretical approaches for modeling chromospheric heating and the acceleration of winds in single cool, evolved stars and in eclipsing binary stars, including physical models that have recently been proposed. It describes the successes that have been achieved so far by invoking acoustic and MHD waves to provide a physical description of plasma heating and wind acceleration, and discusses the challenges that still remain.Comment: 46 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; modified and unedited manuscript; accepted version to appear in: Giants of Eclipse, eds. E. Griffin and T. Ake (Berlin: Springer

Is the evidence for dark energy secure?

Several kinds of astronomical observations, interpreted in the framework of the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology, have indicated that our universe is dominated by a Cosmological Constant. The dimming of distant Type Ia supernovae suggests that the expansion rate is accelerating, as if driven by vacuum energy, and this has been indirectly substantiated through studies of angular anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and of spatial correlations in the large-scale structure (LSS) of galaxies. However there is no compelling direct evidence yet for (the dynamical effects of) dark energy. The precision CMB data can be equally well fitted without dark energy if the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations is not quite scale-free and if the Hubble constant is lower globally than its locally measured value. The LSS data can also be satisfactorily fitted if there is a small component of hot dark matter, as would be provided by neutrinos of mass 0.5 eV. Although such an Einstein-de Sitter model cannot explain the SNe Ia Hubble diagram or the position of the `baryon acoustic oscillation' peak in the autocorrelation function of galaxies, it may be possible to do so e.g. in an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi cosmology where we are located in a void which is expanding faster than the average. Such alternatives may seem contrived but this must be weighed against our lack of any fundamental understanding of the inferred tiny energy scale of the dark energy. It may well be an artifact of an oversimplified cosmological model, rather than having physical reality.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; to appear in a special issue of General Relativity and Gravitation, eds. G.F.R. Ellis et al; Changes: references reformatted in journal style - text unchange