Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-event using structural nested failure time models

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient characteristics, which themselves may also be time-dependent. In this situation the effect of the treatment cannot simply be estimated by conditioning on the patient characteristics, as these may themselves be indicators of the treatment effect. This so-called time-dependent confounding is typical in observational studies. We discuss a new class of failure time models, structural nested failure time models, which can be used to estimate the causal effect of a time-varying treatment, and present methods for estimating and testing the parameters of these models

Welfare benefits and family-size decisions of never-married women

Since the 1970s, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has been increasing rapidly in the United States and has prompted several states to propose (and in some cases, enact) legislation to deny access to higher AFDC benefits for families in which the mother gives birth while receiving AFDC. The authors investigate whether AFDC benefit levels are systematically related to the family-size decisions of never-married women. Using a Poisson Regression model, applied to Current Population Survey data from the years 1980-1988, they find that the basic benefit level positively influences family size for white and Hispanic women, but not for black women. Incremental benefits for larger families, however, do not affect family-size decisions, suggesting that reducing (or eliminating) this differential will not necessarily reduce the number of illegitimate births. The basic benefit level positively affects the family-size decision of high school dropouts, but not of high school graduates. This suggests that to discourage nonmarital births, policymakers should consider altering the AFDC benefit structure in such a way as to encourage single mothers to complete high school. However, being a high school dropout might be a proxy for some other underlying characteristic of the woman, and inducing women to complete high school who otherwise would not might have no effect whatsoever on nonmarital births.

Robots as embodied beings- Interactionally sensitive body movements in interactions among autistic children and a robot

Peer reviewe

Computational Topology Techniques for Characterizing Time-Series Data

Topological data analysis (TDA), while abstract, allows a characterization of time-series data obtained from nonlinear and complex dynamical systems. Though it is surprising that such an abstract measure of structure - counting pieces and holes - could be useful for real-world data, TDA lets us compare different systems, and even do membership testing or change-point detection. However, TDA is computationally expensive and involves a number of free parameters. This complexity can be obviated by coarse-graining, using a construct called the witness complex. The parametric dependence gives rise to the concept of persistent homology: how shape changes with scale. Its results allow us to distinguish time-series data from different systems - e.g., the same note played on different musical instruments.Comment: 12 pages, 6 Figures, 1 Table, The Sixteenth International Symposium on Intelligent Data Analysis (IDA 2017

Betti number signatures of homogeneous Poisson point processes

The Betti numbers are fundamental topological quantities that describe the k-dimensional connectivity of an object: B_0 is the number of connected components and B_k effectively counts the number of k-dimensional holes. Although they are appealing natural descriptors of shape, the higher-order Betti numbers are more difficult to compute than other measures and so have not previously been studied per se in the context of stochastic geometry or statistical physics. As a mathematically tractable model, we consider the expected Betti numbers per unit volume of Poisson-centred spheres with radius alpha. We present results from simulations and derive analytic expressions for the low intensity, small radius limits of Betti numbers in one, two, and three dimensions. The algorithms and analysis depend on alpha-shapes, a construction from computational geometry that deserves to be more widely known in the physics community.Comment: Submitted to PRE. 11 pages, 10 figure

Quantum tunneling dynamics of an interacting Bose-Einstein condensate through a Gaussian barrier

The transmission of an interacting Bose-Einstein condensate incident on a repulsive Gaussian barrier is investigated through numerical simulation. The dynamics associated with interatomic interactions are studied across a broad parameter range not previously explored. Effective 1D Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) simulations are compared to classical Boltzmann-Vlasov equation (BVE) simulations in order to isolate purely coherent matterwave effects. Quantum tunneling is then defined as the portion of the GPE transmission not described by the classical BVE. An exponential dependence of transmission on barrier height is observed in the purely classical simulation, suggesting that observing such exponential dependence is not a sufficient condition for quantum tunneling. Furthermore, the transmission is found to be predominately described by classical effects, although interatomic interactions are shown to modify the magnitude of the quantum tunneling. Interactions are also seen to affect the amount of classical transmission, producing transmission in regions where the non-interacting equivalent has none. This theoretical investigation clarifies the contribution quantum tunneling makes to overall transmission in many-particle interacting systems, potentially informing future tunneling experiments with ultracold atoms.Comment: Close to the published versio

Gradient echo memory in an ultra-high optical depth cold atomic ensemble

Quantum memories are an integral component of quantum repeaters - devices that will allow the extension of quantum key distribution to communication ranges beyond that permissible by passive transmission. A quantum memory for this application needs to be highly efficient and have coherence times approaching a millisecond. Here we report on work towards this goal, with the development of a $^{87}$Rb magneto-optical trap with a peak optical depth of 1000 for the D2 $F=2 \rightarrow F'=3$ transition using spatial and temporal dark spots. With this purpose-built cold atomic ensemble to implement the gradient echo memory (GEM) scheme. Our data shows a memory efficiency of $80\pm 2$% and coherence times up to 195 $\mu$s, which is a factor of four greater than previous GEM experiments implemented in warm vapour cells.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Stability of continuously pumped atom lasers

A multimode model of a continuously pumped atom laser is shown to be unstable below a critical value of the scattering length. Above the critical scattering length, the atom laser reaches a steady state, the stability of which increases with pumping. Below this limit the laser does not reach a steady state. This instability results from the competition between gain and loss for the excited states of the lasing mode. It will determine a fundamental limit for the linewidth of an atom laser beam.Comment: 4 page