8,315 research outputs found
Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-event using structural nested failure time models
In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a
time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is
designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted
to patient characteristics, which themselves may also be time-dependent. In
this situation the effect of the treatment cannot simply be estimated by
conditioning on the patient characteristics, as these may themselves be
indicators of the treatment effect. This so-called time-dependent confounding
is typical in observational studies. We discuss a new class of failure time
models, structural nested failure time models, which can be used to estimate
the causal effect of a time-varying treatment, and present methods for
estimating and testing the parameters of these models
Reducing Prawn-trawl Bycatch in Australia: An Overview and an Example from Queensland
Prawn trawling occurs in most states of Australia in tropical, subtropical, and temperate waters. Bycatch occurs
to some degree in all Australian trawl fisheries, and there is pressure to reduce the levels of trawl fishery bycatch. This paper gives a brief overview of the bycatch issues and
technological solutions that have been evaluated or adopted in Australian prawn-trawl fi sheries. Turtle excluder devices (TED’s) and bycatch reduction devices (BRD’s) are
the principal solutions to bycatch in Australian prawn-trawl fisheries. This paper focuses on a major prawn-trawl fishery of northeastern Australia, and the results of
commercial use of TED’s and BRD’s in the Queensland east coast trawl fishery are presented. New industry designs are
described, and the status of TED and BRD adoption and regulation is summarized. The implementation of technological solutions to reduce fishery bycatch is assumed generally to assist prawn-trawl fisheries within
Australia in achieving legislative requirements for minimal environmental impact and ecological sustainable development
Stability of continuously pumped atom lasers
A multimode model of a continuously pumped atom laser is shown to be unstable
below a critical value of the scattering length. Above the critical scattering
length, the atom laser reaches a steady state, the stability of which increases
with pumping. Below this limit the laser does not reach a steady state. This
instability results from the competition between gain and loss for the excited
states of the lasing mode. It will determine a fundamental limit for the
linewidth of an atom laser beam.Comment: 4 page
Nested Markov Properties for Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models may be characterized in at least four
different ways: via a factorization, the d-separation criterion, the
moralization criterion, and the local Markov property. As pointed out by Robins
(1986, 1999), Verma and Pearl (1990), and Tian and Pearl (2002b), marginals of
DAG models also imply equality constraints that are not conditional
independences. The well-known `Verma constraint' is an example. Constraints of
this type were used for testing edges (Shpitser et al., 2009), and an efficient
marginalization scheme via variable elimination (Shpitser et al., 2011).
We show that equality constraints like the `Verma constraint' can be viewed
as conditional independences in kernel objects obtained from joint
distributions via a fixing operation that generalizes conditioning and
marginalization. We use these constraints to define, via Markov properties and
a factorization, a graphical model associated with acyclic directed mixed
graphs (ADMGs). We show that marginal distributions of DAG models lie in this
model, prove that a characterization of these constraints given in (Tian and
Pearl, 2002b) gives an alternative definition of the model, and finally show
that the fixing operation we used to define the model can be used to give a
particularly simple characterization of identifiable causal effects in hidden
variable graphical causal models.Comment: 67 pages (not including appendix and references), 8 figure
Sparse Nested Markov models with Log-linear Parameters
Hidden variables are ubiquitous in practical data analysis, and therefore
modeling marginal densities and doing inference with the resulting models is an
important problem in statistics, machine learning, and causal inference.
Recently, a new type of graphical model, called the nested Markov model, was
developed which captures equality constraints found in marginals of directed
acyclic graph (DAG) models. Some of these constraints, such as the so called
`Verma constraint', strictly generalize conditional independence. To make
modeling and inference with nested Markov models practical, it is necessary to
limit the number of parameters in the model, while still correctly capturing
the constraints in the marginal of a DAG model. Placing such limits is similar
in spirit to sparsity methods for undirected graphical models, and regression
models. In this paper, we give a log-linear parameterization which allows
sparse modeling with nested Markov models. We illustrate the advantages of this
parameterization with a simulation study.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty
in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2013
Second look at the spread of epidemics on networks
In an important paper, M.E.J. Newman claimed that a general network-based
stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to
a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network
and the bond occupation probability is equal to the marginal probability of
transmission from an infected node to a susceptible neighbor. In this paper, we
show that this isomorphism is incorrect and define a semi-directed random
network we call the epidemic percolation network that is exactly isomorphic to
the SIR epidemic model in any finite population. In the limit of a large
population, (i) the distribution of (self-limited) outbreak sizes is identical
to the size distribution of (small) out-components, (ii) the epidemic threshold
corresponds to the phase transition where a giant strongly-connected component
appears, (iii) the probability of a large epidemic is equal to the probability
that an initial infection occurs in the giant in-component, and (iv) the
relative final size of an epidemic is equal to the proportion of the network
contained in the giant out-component. For the SIR model considered by Newman,
we show that the epidemic percolation network predicts the same mean outbreak
size below the epidemic threshold, the same epidemic threshold, and the same
final size of an epidemic as the bond percolation model. However, the bond
percolation model fails to predict the correct outbreak size distribution and
probability of an epidemic when there is a nondegenerate infectious period
distribution. We confirm our findings by comparing predictions from percolation
networks and bond percolation models to the results of simulations. In an
appendix, we show that an isomorphism to an epidemic percolation network can be
defined for any time-homogeneous stochastic SIR model.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure
Using longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation in complex settings with dynamic interventions.
Longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation (LTMLE) has very rarely been used to estimate dynamic treatment effects in the context of time-dependent confounding affected by prior treatment when faced with long follow-up times, multiple time-varying confounders, and complex associational relationships simultaneously. Reasons for this include the potential computational burden, technical challenges, restricted modeling options for long follow-up times, and limited practical guidance in the literature. However, LTMLE has desirable asymptotic properties, ie, it is doubly robust, and can yield valid inference when used in conjunction with machine learning. It also has the advantage of easy-to-calculate analytic standard errors in contrast to the g-formula, which requires bootstrapping. We use a topical and sophisticated question from HIV treatment research to show that LTMLE can be used successfully in complex realistic settings, and we compare results to competing estimators. Our example illustrates the following practical challenges common to many epidemiological studies: (1) long follow-up time (30 months); (2) gradually declining sample size; (3) limited support for some intervention rules of interest; (4) a high-dimensional set of potential adjustment variables, increasing both the need and the challenge of integrating appropriate machine learning methods; and (5) consideration of collider bias. Our analyses, as well as simulations, shed new light on the application of LTMLE in complex and realistic settings: We show that (1) LTMLE can yield stable and good estimates, even when confronted with small samples and limited modeling options; (2) machine learning utilized with a small set of simple learners (if more complex ones cannot be fitted) can outperform a single, complex model, which is tailored to incorporate prior clinical knowledge; and (3) performance can vary considerably depending on interventions and their support in the data, and therefore critical quality checks should accompany every LTMLE analysis. We provide guidance for the practical application of LTMLE
Computational Topology Techniques for Characterizing Time-Series Data
Topological data analysis (TDA), while abstract, allows a characterization of
time-series data obtained from nonlinear and complex dynamical systems. Though
it is surprising that such an abstract measure of structure - counting pieces
and holes - could be useful for real-world data, TDA lets us compare different
systems, and even do membership testing or change-point detection. However, TDA
is computationally expensive and involves a number of free parameters. This
complexity can be obviated by coarse-graining, using a construct called the
witness complex. The parametric dependence gives rise to the concept of
persistent homology: how shape changes with scale. Its results allow us to
distinguish time-series data from different systems - e.g., the same note
played on different musical instruments.Comment: 12 pages, 6 Figures, 1 Table, The Sixteenth International Symposium
on Intelligent Data Analysis (IDA 2017
Pulsed pumping of a Bose-Einstein condensate
In this work, we examine a system for coherent transfer of atoms into a
Bose-Einstein condensate. We utilize two spatially separate Bose-Einstein
condensates in different hyperfine ground states held in the same dc magnetic
trap. By means of a pulsed transfer of atoms, we are able to show a clear
resonance in the timing of the transfer, both in temperature and number, from
which we draw conclusions about the underlying physical process. The results
are discussed in the context of the recently demonstrated pumped atom laser.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, published in Physical Review
Tactile Interactions with a Humanoid Robot : Novel Play Scenario Implementations with Children with Autism
Acknowledgments: This work has been partially supported by the European Commission under contract number FP7-231500-ROBOSKIN. Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.The work presented in this paper was part of our investigation in the ROBOSKIN project. The project has developed new robot capabilities based on the tactile feedback provided by novel robotic skin, with the aim to provide cognitive mechanisms to improve human-robot interaction capabilities. This article presents two novel tactile play scenarios developed for robot-assisted play for children with autism. The play scenarios were developed against specific educational and therapeutic objectives that were discussed with teachers and therapists. These objectives were classified with reference to the ICF-CY, the International Classification of Functioning – version for Children and Youth. The article presents a detailed description of the play scenarios, and case study examples of their implementation in HRI studies with children with autism and the humanoid robot KASPAR.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio
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