Favouritism and financial incentives: A natural experiment

Principals who exercise favouritism towards certain agents may harm those who are not so favoured. Other papers have produced evidence consistent with the presence of such favouritism but have been unable to consider methods for controlling it. We address this issue in the context of a natural experiment from English soccer, where one particular league introduced professional referees in 2001-02, thereby changing the financial incentives and monitoring regime faced by these referees. Because the change was not effected in all leagues, the ‘experiment’ has both cross-sectional and intertemporal dimensions. We study the effects of professional referees on an established measure of referee bias: length of injury time in close matches. We find that referees exercised favouritism prior to professionalism but not afterwards, having controlled for selection and soccer-wide effects. The results are consistent with a financial incentive effect as a result of professional referees and indicate that subtle aspects of principal-agent relationships (such as favouritism) are amenable to contractual influence.Favouritism, financial incentives, soccer, referee

The determinants of employee crime in the UK

For the first time, we present evidence on employee theft in the UK using data on actual recorded crime. We present a model where employees are rational cheaters with consciences to produce hypotheses about the role of labour market (wages, unemployment) and social (age, education) influences on employee theft. We then examine the role of these influences using regional crime data supplemented by data from the LFS. Our results provide information on two competing views of motivations for crime and on policy to combat employee crime.Employee crime, Labour markets

What We Spend and What We Get: Public and Private Provision of Crime Prevention

In this paper, we consider a number of issues regarding crime prevention and criminal justice. We begin by considering how crime is measured and present both general and specific evidence on the level of crime in a variety of countries. Crime is pervasive and varies substantially across countries. We outline the arguments for some public roll in crime prevention, enforcement, prosecution, defence, and adjudication. We consider the relative role of the public and private sectors in crime control and criminal justice. We discuss various measures for the effectiveness of the criminal justice system. We conclude by suggesting some potential areas for research.

The Transition from Welfare to Work

We consider the effects the child care market, early care and education programs, and welfare reforms have on welfare recipients’ transition from welfare to work. Using 1996-1997 data for Massachusetts, we find that the availability and quality of formal child care, the presence of Head Start and Pre-K programs, and the probability of receiving a child care voucher are all positively related to transiting directly from welfare to work. Single mothers subject to work requirements are more likely to transit directly from assistance to work as well, while those not subject to work requirements are more likely to obtain additional education or job training.

The Hazard of Being an English Football League Manager: Empirical Estimates from the 2002/3 Season

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model hazard rates for club managers in the 2002/3 season. Nearly one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club in that season. We model the hazard on the basis of a spell at risk, rather than the individual, using a standard logistic model. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within the discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager’s exit. A variety of individual specific human capital covariates were found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects was detected.econometrics; sports

Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime and the July 2005 Terror Attacks

In this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime by looking at what happened to crime before and after the terror attacks that hit central London in July 2005. The attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central London boroughs as compared to outer London – in fact, police deployment in central London increased by over 30 percent in the six weeks following the July 7 bombings. During this time crime fell significantly in central relative to outer London. Study of the timing of the crime reductions and their magnitude, the types of crime which were more likely to be affected and a series of robustness tests looking at possible biases all make us confident that our research approach identifies a causal impact of police on crime. Implementing an instrumental variable approach shows an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately -0.3, so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 percent.Crime; Police; Terror attacks.

Institutions and Long-Run Growth in the UK: the Role of Standards

In this paper we consider the relationship between the standards created by national standards bodies and long run economic growth, exploring the relationship in the context of the UK and the British Standards Institution (BSI). We suggest that standards provide a key enabling mechanism for the widespread diffusion of major technologies, while being generally supportive of incremental innovation and general technological understanding. In order to further understanding of this mechanism we measure the ‘output’ of the BSI by estimating the size of the BSI ‘catalogue’ available to the economy since its inception in 1901. The measure allows us to estimate an augmented production function for the UK economy over the period 1948-2002. Within a co-integrating framework, we find a statistically significant and unique co-integrating vector between labour productivity, the capital-labour ratio, exogenous technological progress and the BSI catalogue. The long-run elasticity of labour productivity with respect to the standards stock is estimated to be about 0.05, so that the rapid growth of the catalogue in the postwar period is associated with about 13% of the aggregate growth in labour productivity.standards, technological change, productivity.

Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime and the July 2005 Terror Attacks

In this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime by looking at what happened to crime before and after the terror attacks that hit central London in July 2005. The attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central London boroughs as compared to outer London – in fact, police deployment in central London increased by over 30 percent in the six weeks following the July 7 bombings. During this time crime fell significantly in central relative to outer London. Study of the timing of the crime reductions and their magnitude, the types of crime which were more likely to be affected and a series of robustness tests looking at possible biases all make us confident that our research approach identifies a causal impact of police on crime. Implementing an instrumental variable approach shows an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately -0.3, so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 percent.crime, police, terror attacks

The Transition from Welfare to Work

We consider the effects the child care market, child care vouchers, early childhood education programs, and welfare reforms have on welfare recipients in their transition from welfare to work. Specifically, we are interested in determining which factors encourage single mothers to move directly from welfare to work and which factors encourage the pursuit of additional schooling or job retraining before entering the labor market. Using Massachusetts data from July 1996 through August 1997, we find that the availability, quality, and cost of formal child care are all positively related to transiting directly from welfare to work. We also find that single mothers with older children are more likely to pursue a job and forego additional schooling, while single mothers with infants are more likely to advance their education before seeking employment.Welfare Reform, Child Care, Vouchers, Time Limits, Labor Supply