The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets

According to the U. S. Census Bureau projections, the United States will face dramatic demographic changes over the next one hundred years. Indeed, the country will be entering largely uncharted territory. In the twenty-first century, the population is expected to grow more slowly than ever before over an extended period. The population will also age rapidly, with the share of the population over 65 climbing to a succession of new record highs. Finally, the United States will once again become a nation of immigrants. Over the past decade, the wave of new immigrants has already neared proportions last seen in the early 1900s at the end of the Great Migrations. And this inflow is projected to persist throughout the coming century, with new immigrants and the children of those immigrants contributing well over half of the increase in the U. S. population. Because the source of this inflow has shifted from Europe to Latin America and Asia, this new wave will change the voice and face of America forever.Demography ; Economic conditions ; Labor market

Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview

Most economic developments are hard to predict. Considerable uncertainty surrounds forecasts for output growth, inflation, and unemployment a year from now, for instance. But demographic developments are different in this respect. Although demographic surprises abound, the major trends build slowly, and the broad contours of medium-term outcomes become discernible well in advance.Demography ; Economic conditions

A new approach to causality and economic growth.

This paper examines the issue of causality in cross-sectional empirical models of economic growth. Using an approach to determining causal structures based on tests for conditional independence in sets of variables, we uncover alternative causal structures that are consistent with the correlation pattern of the variables in the data. We use these methods to develop alternative causal empirical models of economic growth. One of our consistent findings is that we can rule out the possibility that equipment investment causes growth. Our search procedure leads naturally to a structural model with latent variables which we then estimate. The results of our estimation are broadly consistent with traditional models of economic growth augmented for human capital.Economic development ; Econometric models

U. S. labor supply in the twenty-first century

The American labor force will be transformed as the twenty-first century unfolds, a change that will confront policymakers and business firms with new challenges and new opportunities. The impending slowdown of labor force growth that will accompany the retirement of the baby boom generation already is playing a central role in national debates over the future solvency of Social Security and Medicare, as well as U.S. immigration policies. But labor supply changes will be influenced by other dimensions as well. In the coming decades, American workers are likely to be, on average, older and better educated than today’s labor force. The globalization of labor markets is already opening new employment opportunities for some Americans and changing the wage rates paid to others. The production technologies and personnel policies adopted by tomorrow’s firms will undoubtedly reflect the numbers and types of workers available for employment.Labor supply ; Baby boom generation

Do State Economics or Individual Characteristics Determine Whether Older Men Work?

The difference in labor force participation rates of men aged 55-64 across the United States is astounding. For example, West Virginia has a participation rate below 60 percent, while South Dakota has a participation rate approaching 90 percent (see Figure 1). This fact in itself has significant implications for the pressures that states will face as the baby boom starts to retire in the face of a contracting retirement income system, declining housing prices, and a lackluster stock market. Despite these marked differences, little is known about the reasons for such variations in work patterns. An earlier brief, using the Current Population Survey for the period 1977-2007, demonstrated that the differences in the labor force participation of older men were related to labor market conditions, the nature of employment, and the employee characteristics in each state as well as to a “pseudo replacement rate.” These variables explained more than one-third of the total variation...

Job Creation, Job Destruction, and International Competition

The authors present a picture of how the effects of international trade on employment in U.S. manufacturing industries vary widely. They explore the labor-market dynamics and adjustment costs associated with international factors, particularly the way fluctuations in exchange rates, overseas economic activity, and the altering of trade restrictions contribute to churning-the simultaneous job creation among some firms and job destruction among others.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1049/thumbnail.jp

The Efficiency Cost of Increased Progressivity

Increases in income tax progressivity generally entail some efficiency cost due to increased distortion of individuals' labor supply decisions. This paper quantifies the magnitude of the efficiency cost of several policies which would increase the progressivity of the U.S. individual income tax. The analysis differs from previous work on this topic in allowing for complex nonlinear tax schedules similar to those which actually exist. The efficiency cost of increased progressivity is found to vary considerably with the type of tax reform considered. Expanding the earned income tax credit (EITC) is found to be a particularly efficient means of increasing progressivity. Using the labor supply parameters I consider most reasonable, I find that the efficiency cost of expanding the EITC financed by increased tax rates in the intermediated brackets is less than 20 cents per dollar transferred from the upper income groups to the lower income groups.

Technical innovations and optimizations for intermediate ice-core drilling operations

The British Antarctic Survey, in collaboration with Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, has in recent years successfully drilled to bedrock on three remote sites around the Antarctic Peninsula. Based on the experience from the multi-season project at Berkner Island (948m depth, 2002–05) we optimized the drill set-up to better suit two subsequent single-season projects at James Ross Island (363m depth, 2008) and Fletcher Promontory (654m depth, 2012). The adaptations, as well as the reasons for them, are discussed in detail and include a drill tent set-up without a trench; drilling without a borehole casing with a relatively low fluid column height; and using a shorter drill. These optimizations were aimed at reducing cargo loads and installation time while maintaining good core quality, productivity and a safe working environment. In addition, we introduce a number of innovations, ranging from a new lightweight cable tensioning device and drill-head design to core storage and protection trays. To minimize the environmental impact, all the drill fluid was successfully recovered at both sites and we describe and evaluate this operation

The James Ross Island and the Fletcher Promontory ice-core drilling projects

Following on from the successful project to recover an ice core to bedrock on Berkner Island, similar drilling equipment and logistics were used on two further projects to recover ice cores to bedrock in the Antarctic Peninsula. At James Ross Island, a ship- and helicopter-supported project drilled to bedrock at 363m depth in a single season, while a Twin Otter-supported project drilled to bedrock at 654m depth, again in a single season, from Fletcher Promontory. In both new projects, drilling was from the surface, with the infrastructure enclosed in a tent, using an uncased, partially fluid-filled, borehole