Estimating Iceland's Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Given recent developments in Iceland, this paper evaluates its real exchange rate disequilibrium. It discusses three approaches to estimating the equilibrium values and suggests that the adjustment needed to bring the real exchange rate in line with fundamentals is in the range of 15-25 percent, although timing and manner of this adjustment is unclear.

Greenspan and the Greenbook

A vast literature has emerged using Taylor rules to analyze monetary policy Although very attractive both theoretically and empirically such rules imply a mechanical response by the policy variable to fundamental ones This study looks for empirical evidence of a more sophisticated monetary policy one which takes into account expected future developments An important piece of information I use is the Greenbook forecast series which are calculated by the Federal Reserve Board's Research Department prior to the Board meetings Using Greenbook forecasts allows calculation of future inflation shocks as expected by the Fed These shocks are significant in the estimated Taylor rule confirming that policymaking is forward-looking In addition using Greenbook forecasts allows one to obtain better real time estimates of the potential output and thus to obtain a more precise characterization of monetary policy

The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?

This paper draws attention to inconsistencies in estimating simple monetary policy rules and their implications for policy advice. We simulate a macroeconomic model with a backward reaction function similar to Taylor (1993). We estimate different versions of a policy rule, using these simulated data.

The Fed and the New Economy

This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple 'Taylor rule,' while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the 'New Economy' permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000.

Quasi-Fiscal Deficit in Non-Financial Enterprises

This paper discusses two ways of evaluating the quasi-fiscal deficit (QFD) and the link between them. It also suggests how to properly account for the QFD when calculating the overall deficit of the public sector. Finally, using an example of the energy market, it shows how to untangle a web of mutual nonpayments and properly evaluate the QFD generated in a sector characterized by the presence of both private and public agents.Budget deficits;Payments arrears;Taxes;subsidies, fiscal deficit, quasi-fiscal deficit, budget deficit, quasi-fiscal activities, fiscal activities, subsidy, fiscal operations, tax authorities, budget constraint, budgetary institutions, budget revenues, fiscal deficits, fiscal position, government spending, fiscal policy, subsidization, fiscal losses, fiscal authorities, tax payments, fiscal transparency, fiscal subsidy

The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy

Although very attractive both theoretically and empirically, Taylor rules imply mechanical responses by the policy variable (interest rate) to fundamental ones (inflation and output gap). This study looks for empirical evidence of a more sophisticated monetary policy, one which takes into account expected future developments. An important piece of information added is the "Greenbook" forecast series, calculated by the Federal Reserve staff and which allow evaluation of expected inflation shocks. These shocks are significant in the estimated Taylor rule, confirming that policymaking is forward looking. This paper also demonstrates that a simple Taylor rule may be a misspecification if policymakers have in mind a timevarying inflation target.

Deposit Formation in Georgia

This paper analyzes behavior of the real deposits in Georgia in1996-2009 by modeling demand for the real broad money balances and the cash-deposit ratio. The results suggest that the main factors that affected deposits over those years were income, development of the financial sector, and changes in the tax burden, while changes in the interest rate and inflation played only a minor role. The results also demonstrate importance of the geopolitical events as they affect confidence in the banking sector.Banking sector;Commercial banks;Currency depositories;Economic models;real money, nominal interest rate, foreign currency, inflation, money demand, money balances, money supply, money stock, inflation rates, demand for money, nominal interest rates, monetary economics, monetary aggregate, price level, nominal rate of return, monetary fund, monetary base, monetary policy, national bank, real interest rate, high inflation, central bank, rate of inflation, inflationary expectations

The Fed and the New Economy

This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple "Taylor rule", while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the "New Economy" permitted an easing of policy. We find that a Taylor rule based on inflation and unemployment does break down in the late 1990s. However, the Fed's behavior appears stable once one accounts for the falling NAIRU of the period. A rule based on inflation and the deviation of unemployment from the NAIRU captures the Fed's behavior through the entire period from 1987 to 2000.