Risk Neutrality and the Two-Tier Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from Belgium

Most of the literature on two-tier exchange markets is built around models in which domestic policy can exert a powerful influence on the spread between the current account exchange rate and the capital account exchange rate. We show that if optimizing agents are risk neutral, domestic policy has no significant influence on the spread. Our work with Belgian data suggests that a nsk neutral specification for Belgian residents acting in the two-tier market is hard to reject, and we also find evidence that domestic variables do not affect the Belgian spread.

APPROACH D: MULTIPLE PRICING

Demand and Price Analysis,

The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimeswith Optimal Indexing

The paper develops a general stochastic macroeconomic model which can be used to study the international transmission of disturbances under alternative exchange-rate systems. Four types of exchange-rate systems are considered: uniform flexible exchange rates, uniform fixed exchange rates, two-tier exchange rates in which the current-account exchange rate is fixed and the capital-account exchange rate is flexible, and two-tier exchange rates with separate, floating rates for current and capital-account transactions. It is assumed that expectations are rational, so only the unexpected portion of macro policy alters the level of output. In addition, private contracts form the underpinning of the aggregate supply function, and they can be adjusted optimally in response to the country's choice of exchange-rate regime. It is shown that when the home country takes all prices as exogenous and wages are optimally indexed, the country is fully insulated from foreign disturbances under the two fixed-rate regimes but not under the two flexible-rate regimes. Even so, the fixed-rate regimes are inferior to the flexible-rate regimes in terms of their ability to minimize output variance. When the home country is large in the market for its own produced good, these results must be modified. The analysis makes two general points. First, one cannot assume stability of structure when assessing the consequences of alternative exchange-rate regimes. For example, the slope of the aggregate supply curve and the rationally-formed expectations in the asset markets can respond dramatically to the government's choice of exchange-rate regime. Second, exchange-rate regimes that provide full insulation from foreign disturbances may nevertheless be inferior to other regimes in terms of their ability to maximize social welfare.

THOROUGHBRED FARM MANAGERS\u27 WILLINGNESS-TO-PAY FOR ALTERNATIVE DEWORMING REGIMENS IN HORSES

Parasite control is important to horse health and horse owners should feel highly concerned about the proper treatment of parasites. In the past 30 years, veterinary science has made important advances in treating parasites and provided new products and strategies to optimize treatment and prevention. However, horse owners and managers have been slow to adopt these new recommendations. This study investigates why the transition has not occurred as expected. It examines issues related to the decision-making process of horse owners and managers as they relate to deworming strategies. In addition, it investigates current deworming approaches as well as attitudes towards alternative parasite control strategies, and tries to describe the financial considerations corresponding to each strategy. To this end, a questionnaire was distributed to Thoroughbred farms in Kentucky. The first part of the questionnaire examined the actual approaches of farm managers and characterized the Kentucky Thoroughbred farms. Most farm managers appear to be concerned about drug resistance in parasites and incorporated veterinarian advice in defining their deworming program; however, almost three-quarters of them were still following the traditional rotational deworming program. Based on a conjoint experiment, we were able to evaluate the willingness-to-pay of farm managers for different attributes of a deworming strategy – time and effort spent, decrease in health risks, drug resistance in parasites, and price. The study showed that farm managers were willing to pay a premium for a strategy that is guaranteed “non-resistant” and that decreased health risk by 5%, while they expected a discount for a strategy that requires much time and effort

The Internet Activities of FiBL

The poster presents the main internet sites maintained by FIBL in 2002: www.fibl.org www.oekolandbau.de http://www.organicxseeds.com

The Ursinus Weekly, May 17, 1943

Dr. Lewis C. Scheffey addresses graduates at seventy-third commencement exercises • Goodyear offers women positions • Students donate sixty-five pints of blood to Army • Portrait of Dean unveiled Saturday • Reverend Lampe speaks at baccalaureate • English Club draws for books at meeting • Blazers and medal awarded at annual WAA installation • Debaters elect Knieriem • Two win open scholarships • Associated Press awards second place to Weekly • Forum Committee elects officers for summer, fall • F. & M. to hear Dr. McClure • Physical Education Club has picnic • Students aid charities • Robert Ihrie and Alvin Creitz lead graduates • What about Russia? • Tredinnick will edit Weekly this summer • Next year • Remember me • Society notes • Men finish intramural games; Basketball program is success • Frosh-juniors win in baseball contest • Girls lose one game all year; Three teams are undefeated • Frosh-juniors take track meet easily • Softball club is unbeaten as girls down Swarthmore • Unbeaten Ursinus lassies win 3-2 over Swarthmore • Tennis players beat Penn in spite of high winds • Services held for Swift • Baccalaureate degreeshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/weekly/3106/thumbnail.jp

Blood levels of Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP) in patients with neurological diseases

Background and Purpose: The brain-specific astroglial protein GFAP is a blood biomarker candidate indicative of intracerebral hemorrhage in patients with symptoms suspicious of acute stroke. Comparably little, however, is known about GFAP release in other neurological disorders. In order to identify potential “specificity gaps” of a future GFAP test used to diagnose intracerebral hemorrhage, we measured GFAP in the blood of a large and rather unselected collective of patients with neurological diseases. Methods: Within a one-year period, we randomly selected in-patients of our university hospital for study inclusion. Patients with ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack and intracerebral hemorrhage were excluded. Primary endpoint was the ICD-10 coded diagnosis reached at discharge. During hospital stay, blood was collected, and GFAP plasma levels were determined using an advanced prototype immunoassay at Roche Diagnostics. Results: A total of 331 patients were included, covering a broad spectrum of neurological diseases. GFAP levels were low in the vast majority of patients, with 98.5% of cases lying below the cut-off that was previously defined for the differentiation of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke. No diagnosis or group of diagnoses was identified that showed consistently increased GFAP values. No association with age and sex was found. Conclusion: Most acute and chronic neurological diseases, including typical stroke mimics, are not associated with detectable GFAP levels in the bloodstream. Our findings underline the hypothesis that rapid astroglial destruction as in acute intracerebral hemorrhage is mandatory for GFAP increase. A future GFAP blood test applied to identify patients with intracerebral hemorrhage is likely to have a high specificity