Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?

The authors analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long-run finances of the Social Security System. First, mortality decline adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this distribution with the age distribution of taxes minus benefits determines the steady state financial consequences of mortality decline. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United State and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline much faster than foreseen by the SSA\u27s forecasts. Third, based on work on stochastic demographic forecasting, stochastic forecasts of the system\u27s actuarial balance are derived, indicating a broader range of demographic uncertainty than in the latest SSA forecasts, and a relatively greater contribution to uncertainty from fertility than mortality

Transport in Quantum Dots from the Integrability of the Anderson Model

In this work we exploit the integrability of the two-lead Anderson model to compute transport properties of a quantum dot, in and out of equilibrium. Our method combines the properties of integrable scattering together with a Landauer-Buttiker formalism. Although we use integrability, the nature of the problem is such that our results are not generically exact, but must only be considered as excellent approximations which nonetheless are valid all the way through crossover regimes. The key to our approach is to identify the excitations that correspond to scattering states and then to compute their associated scattering amplitudes. We are able to do so both in and out of equilibrium. In equilibrium and at zero temperature, we reproduce the Friedel sum rule for an arbitrary magnetic field. At finite temperature, we study the linear response conductance at the symmetric point of the Anderson model, and reproduce Costi et al.'s numerical renormalization group computation of this quantity. We then explore the out-of-equilibrium conductance for a near-symmetric Anderson model, and arrive at quantitative expressions for the differential conductance, both in and out of a magnetic field. We find the expected splitting of the differential conductance peak into two in a finite magnetic field, $H$. We determine the width, height, and position of these peaks. In particular we find for H >> T_k, the Kondo temperature, the differential conductance has maxima of e^2/h occuring for a bias V close to but smaller than H. The nature of our construction of scattering states suggests that our results for the differential magneto-conductance are not merely approximate but become exact in the large field limit.Comment: 88 pages, 16 figures, uses harvmac.te

Genes as Tags: The Tax Implications of Widely Available Genetic Information

This paper examines how progress in genetics\u27 specifically, the proliferation of knowledge about the human genome\u27 may influence the feasibility and desirability of a tax that is based on individual human endowments or ability. The paper explores various forms that such a genetic endowment tax-and-transfer regime might take and identifies some of the benefits and costs of such a regime. The authors take no position on whether a genetic endowment tax would be desirable or not. However, one contribution of the paper is to observe that current law in the U.S., which restricts the use of genetic information by insurers and employers, is equivalent to a form of genetic endowment tax. The paper also notes that, in the absence of a government-mandated transfer policy with respect to genetic endowments, private insurance markets may arise to fill the gap, allowing individuals to purchase insurance against the possibility of a bad genetic draw