Caging and mosaic lengthscales in plaquette spin models of glasses

We consider two systems of Ising spins with plaquette interactions. They are simple models of glasses which have dual representations as kinetically constrained systems. These models allow an explicit analysis using the mosaic, or entropic droplet, approach of the random first-order transition theory of the glass transition. We show that the low temperature states of these systems resemble glassy mosaic states, despite the fact that excitations are localized and that there are no static singularities. By means of finite size thermodynamics we study a generalised caging effect whereby the system is frozen on short lengthscales, but free at larger lengthscales. We find that the freezing lengthscales obtained from statics coincide with those relevant to dynamic correlations, as expected in the mosaic view. The simple nucleation arguments of the mosaic approach, however, do not give the correct relation between freezing lengths and relaxation times, as they do not capture the transition states for relaxation. We discuss how these results make a connection between the mosaic and the dynamic facilitation views of glass formers.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figs, some typos correcte

Effects of Interactions on the Critical Temperature of a Trapped Bose Gas

We perform high-precision measurements of the condensation temperature of a harmonically-trapped atomic Bose gas with widely-tuneable interactions. For weak interactions we observe a negative shift of the critical temperature in excellent agreement with mean-field theory. However for sufficiently strong interactions we clearly observe an additional positive shift, characteristic of beyond-mean-field critical correlations. We also discuss non-equilibrium effects on the apparent critical temperature for both very weak and very strong interactions.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Static and dynamic lengthscales in a simple glassy plaquette model

We study static and dynamic spatial correlations in a two-dimensional spin model with four-body plaquette interactions and standard Glauber dynamics by means of analytic arguments and Monte Carlo simulations. We study in detail the dynamical behaviour which becomes glassy at low temperatures due to the emergence of effective kinetic constraints in a dual representation where spins are mapped to plaquette variables. We study the interplay between non-trivial static correlations of the spins and the dynamic `four-point' correlations usually studied in the context of supercooled liquids. We show that slow dynamics is spatially heterogeneous due to the presence of diverging lengthscales and scaling, as is also found in kinetically constrained models. This analogy is illustrated by a comparative study of a froth model where the kinetic constraints are imposed.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figs; published versio

PROBABILISTIC PRICE FORECASTS BASED ON COMMODITY OPTION VALUES

Demand and Price Analysis,

Model choice versus model criticism

The new perspectives on ABC and Bayesian model criticisms presented in Ratmann et al.(2009) are challenging standard approaches to Bayesian model choice. We discuss here some issues arising from the authors' approach, including prior influence, model assessment and criticism, and the meaning of error in ABC.Comment: This is a comment on the recent paper by Ratmann, Andrieu, Wiuf, and Richardson (PNAS, 106), submitted too late for PNAS to consider i

Metastable states and space-time phase transitions in a spin-glass model

We study large deviations of the dynamical activity in the random orthogonal model (ROM). This is a fully connected spin-glass model with one-step replica symmetry breaking behaviour, consistent with the random first-order transition scenario for structural glasses. We show that this model displays dynamical (space-time) phase-transitions between active and inactive phases, as demonstrated by singularities in large deviation functions. We argue that such transitions are generic in systems with long-lived metastable states.Comment: 4.1 pages, 4 fig

Fiscal Federalism in Europe: Lessons From the United States Experience

The existing political and legal institutions of fiscal policy-making are under challenge. As the United States and the eastern European and Soviet states experiment with policy decentralization, the states of western Europe are looking to a more centralized policy structure via the E.E.C.. This paper seeks to raise issues of importance to all such reform efforts--notably, the need to consider, and balance, the inefficiencies of fiscal policy decentralization (spillovers and wasteful fiscal competition) against the inefficiencies of fiscal policy centralization (policy cycles and localized 'pork barrel' spending and taxes). The need to develop new fiscal policy institutions emphasizing voluntary agreements and responsive 'agenda-setters' is stressed.