2,838 research outputs found
Robert J. Barro Ă©s a költsĂ©gvetĂ©si tĂșlköltekezĂ©s (Robert J. Barro and fiscal overspending)
Robert J. Barro, a Harvard Egyetem professzora fĆkĂ©nt a gazdasĂĄgpolitika makroökonĂłmiai modellezĂ©se terĂŒletĂ©n elĂ©rt eredmĂ©nyei alapjĂĄn ismert a közgazdĂĄszok körĂ©ben. TevĂ©kenysĂ©ge kiterjed mind az elmĂ©leti, mind pedig az empirikus kutatĂĄsok terĂŒletĂ©re. Jelen tanulmĂĄny Barro azon kutatĂĄsainak feltĂ©telezĂ©seit Ă©s eredmĂ©nyeit összegzi, amelyek a ricardĂłi ekvivalenciaelvbĆl kiindulva a költsĂ©gvetĂ©si politika elmĂ©letĂ©t magyarĂĄzĂł ĂșjszerƱ eredmĂ©nyek kibontakozĂĄsĂĄt segĂtettĂ©k elĆ. A 80-as Ă©vekben az EgyesĂŒlt Ăllamok magas költsĂ©gvetĂ©si hiĂĄnya szĂĄmos közgazdĂĄszt ösztönzött hasonlĂł tĂ©mĂĄjĂș elmĂ©let kidolgozĂĄsĂĄra. Mivel hazĂĄnkban szinte mindennapos vita forrĂĄsa a költsĂ©gvetĂ©si hiĂĄny tĂșlzott mĂ©rtĂ©ke, ami veszĂ©lyezteti a monetĂĄris közössĂ©gben valĂł rĂ©szvĂ©telĂŒnket, kĂŒlönösen Ă©rdekes Ă©s idĆszerƱ annak ĂĄttekintĂ©se, hogy hogyan gondolkodik egy modern közgazdĂĄsz a költsĂ©gvetĂ©si hiĂĄny okairĂłl Ă©s következmĂ©nyeirĆl. ________________ The question of budgetary discipline emerges in relation to the criteria of the Economic and Monetary Union in almost all European special journals today. There is much less attention paid to budgetary overspending, the adjustment of which caused a serious puzzle for the government and the economists of the United States in the 80's. The Lucasian world of new classical economics has questioned the effectiveness of government intervention, it confuted above all the efficiency of fiscal policy. The macroeconomic models of Barro (1979, 1986) introduced in the present study - building upon the theoretical approach of economic policy on similar foundations - examine the effect of budgetary spending principally from a long-run perspective. His empirical analysis, overarching almost seventy years (1916â1982), is based upon the time series of variables affecting the budgetary deficit of the United States, distinguishing the effect of the usual government expenses from the over average items within. On the basis of his investigation on the United States and the United Kingdom he, furthermore, did not reject the economic invigorating role of government spending, he opposed Lucas' conclusions and got a modest step closer to the Keynesian standpoint in this sense. Barro, however, irrefutably argues on classical grounds, he recalls and reevaluates the Ricardian equivalence principle, summarizes the critiques raised against it and unintentionally praises the Classical economists. According to Barro we cannot ignore the one-time theorem of Ricardo if we are endeavoring to model government spending - we have to count with it if not definitely as a positive, but at least as a normative economic relationship
Output Effects of Government Purchases
Because of a small direct negative effect on private spending, temporary variations in government purchases as in wartime, would have a strong positive effect on aggregate demand. Intertemporal substitution effects would direct work and production toward these periods where output was valued unusually highly. Defense purchases are divided empirically into "permanent" and "temporary" components by considering the role of (temporary) wars. Shifts in non-defense purchases are mostly permanent. Empirical results verify a strong expansionary effect on output of temporary purchases, but contradict some more specific expectational propositions.
On the Welfare Costs of Consumption Uncertainty
Satisfactory calculations of the welfare cost of aggregate consumption uncertainty require a framework that replicates major features of asset prices and returns, such as the high equity premium and low risk-free rate. A Lucas-tree model with rare but large disasters is such a framework. In a baseline simulation, the welfare cost of disaster risk is large -- society would be willing to lower real GDP by about 20% each year to eliminate all disaster risk, including wars. In contrast, the welfare cost from usual economic fluctuations is much smaller, though still important -- corresponding to lowering GDP by around 1.5% each year.
The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits
Persistent budget deficits have increased economists' interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy. This paper develops the Ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models. The discussion considers from major theoretical objections to Ricardian equivalence-finite lifetimes, imperfect capital markets, uncertainty about future taxes and incomes, and the distorting effects of taxation Then the paper considers empirical evidence on interest rates, consumption and saving, and current-account deficits. The conclusion is that the Ricardian approach is a useful first-order approximation, and that this approach will probably become the benchwork model for assessing fiscal policy.
Quantity and Quality of Economic Growth
Most cross-country studies of economic performance have focused on narrow economic variables. The present study emphasizes instead some quality dimensions of economic development, including health, fertility, income distribution, political institutions, crime, and religion. The data reveal a regular pattern in which economic development goes along with higher life expectancy and reduced fertility. Improvements in the standard of living are also associated with expansions of democracy, increased maintenance of the rule of law, and reductions in official corruption. Despite the presence of a Kuznets curve, little of the variations in income inequality are explained by the overall level of economic development. Crime rates, proxied by murder rates, also bear little relation with the level of development but are more closely associated with income inequality. Finally, there is some support for the secularization hypothesis, in that economic development is typically accompanied by lower levels of church attendance and religious beliefs. However, religiosity is positively related to education, holding fixed other indicators of economic development.
Rules versus Discretion
Under a discretionary regime the monetary authority makes no commitments about future money and prices. Then, if surprise inflation conveys economic benefits and if people form expectations rationally, it turns out that the equilibrium involves high and variable monetary growth and inflation. Moreover, since the high rate of inflation is anticipated there are no benefits from inflation surprises. The implementation of an enforced rule can lower the mean rate of inflation while delivering the same average amount of inflation surprises, namely zero. Using these results as a background, the paper discusses alternative monetary rules, including quantity versus price rules and a prescription for stablilizing nominal GNP. This discussion touches on the distinction between positive and normative economics, which leads to a pessimistic appraisal of the role for economists' policy advice.
A Capital Market In an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model
Previous equilibrium "business cycle" models are extended by the incorporation of an economy-wide capital market. One aspect of this ex-tension is that the relative price that appears in commodity supply and demand functions becomes an anticipated real rate of return on earning assets, rather than a ratio of actual to expected prices. From the stand-point of expectation formation, the key aspect of the extended model is that observation of the economy-wide nominal interest rate conveys current global information to individuals. With respect to the effect of money supply shocks on output, the model yields results that are similar to those generated in simpler models. Anew result concerns the behavior of the anticipated real rate of return on earning assets. Because this variable is the pertinent relative price for commodity supply and demand decisions, it turns out to be unambiguous that positive money surprises raise the anticipated real rate of return. In fact, this response provides the essential channel in this equilibrium model by which a money shock can raise the supply of commodities and thereby increase output. However, it is possible through a sort of "liquidity" effect that positive money surprises can depress the economy-wide nominal interest rate.
The Stock Market and Investment
Changes in real stock-market prices have a lot of explanatory value of the growth rate of U.S. aggregate business investment, especially for long samples that begin in 1891 or 1921. Moreover, for the period since 1921 where data on a q-type variable are available, the stock market dramatically outperforms q. The change in real stock prices also retains its predictive value in the presence of a cash-flow variable, such as after-tax corporate profits. Basically similar results apply to Canadian investment, except that the U.S. stock market turns out to have move predictive power than the Canadian market. I discuss some possible explanations for this puzzling finding, but none of the explanations seem all that convincing.
Inflation and Economic Growth
Data for around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 are used to assess the effects of inflation on economic performance. If a number of country characteristics are held constant, then regression results indicate that the impact effects from an increase in average inflation by 10 percentage points per year are a reduction of the growth rate of real per capita GDP by 0.2-0.3 percentage points per year and a decrease in the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Since the statistical procedures use plausible instruments for inflation, there is some reason to believe that these relations reflect causal influences from inflation to growth and investment. However, statistically significant results emerge only when high- inflation experiences are included in the sample. Although the adverse influence of inflation on growth looks small, the long-term effects on standards of living are substantial. For example, a shift in monetary policy that raises the long-term average inflation rate by 10 percentage points per year is estimated to lower the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4-7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price stability.
The Behavior of U.S. Deficits
The tax-smoothing theory suggests that deficits would respond particularly to recession, temporarily high government spending, and anticipated inflation. My empirical estimates indicate that a relation of this type is reasonably stable in the U.S. since at least 1920. In particular, the statistical evidence does not support the idea that there has been a shift toward a fiscal policy that generates either more real public debt on average or that generates larger deficits in response to recessions. Further, the deficits for 1982-83 and projections for 1984 are consistent with the previous structure. The high values of these deficits reflect the customary response to substantial recession (interacting with big government) and to expected inflation.
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