Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza

Understanding consumer response to food safety information is important for quantifying consumer response to food safety events, predicting market impacts, and developing appropriate risk communication strategies. In this study, we present a methodology for analysis of consumer response to media coverage of avian influenza and an application using Italian data.Avian influenza, food safety, Italy, meat demand, media index, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q11, Q18,

ANALYZING TRADE IMPLICATIONS OF U.S. BIOFUELS POLICIES IN A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

As the biofuels are emerging as promising alternative transportation fuels across the world, they also offer huge potential for international trade in biofuels. A number of trade barriers such as import tariffs and domestic support have limited the scope for trade in biofuels. The purpose of this study is to analyze the implications of U.S. biofuel mandates, subsidies and import tariffs on global trade and welfare. We utilize the GTAP-BIO model, which was developed as a customized version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model capable of analyzing domestic and trade policy issues associated with biofuels (Birur, 2010). We supplement this model with updated and detailed sectoral level information on feedstock crops, different types of first and second generation biofuels and their byproducts. This highly refined data base facilitates the model for simulating changes in cropping patterns at individual crop level, land use changes, commodity prices, etc. We analyze the following policy scenarios in this study: (a) implementation of volume requirements consistent with the U.S RFS2 volumes for the year 2022 relative to a starting point of the base year 2004, (b) reduction in the ethanol specific import tariff from 54 ¢/gallon to 45 ¢/gallon, so that there will be “parity” between the U.S. and exporting country’s ethanol price, (c) Complete removal of the U.S. ethanol blenders’ credit and import tariff on ethanol, (d) combined implementation of (a) and (c) policy scenarios. This paper offers insights regarding the prospective policy options that can affect potential trade in biofuels amongst the major producing countries, such as the extent to which a removal of U.S. import tariff on ethanol affects pasture and forest land conversion in Brazil.Biofuels, Computable General Equilibrium, land use change, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AGRICULTURE

There is general consensus in the scientific literature that human-induced climate change has taken place and will continue to do so over the next century. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes with “very high confidence” that anthropogenic activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation have affected the global climate. The AR4 also indicates that global average temperatures are expected to increase by another 1.1°C to 5.4°C by 2100, depending on the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that takes place during this time. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, temperature increases, altered precipitation patterns and other factors influenced by climate have already begun to impact U.S. agriculture. Climate change will continue to have significant effects on U.S. agriculture, water resources, land resources, and biodiversity in the future as temperature extremes begin exceeding thresholds that harm crop growth more frequently and precipitation and runoff patterns continue to change. In this study, we provide an assessment of the potential long-term implications of climate change on landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and production practices in the U.S., combining a crop process model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model) and an economic model of the U.S. forestry and agricultural sector (Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). Agricultural producers have always faced numerous production and price risks, but forecasts of more rapid changes in climatic conditions in the future have raised concerns that these risks will increase in the future relative to historical conditions.climate change, crop yields, EPIC, FASOM, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q18, Q54,

Demand Curve Shifts in Multi-Unit Auctions: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Basic economic theory predicts that a consumer's willingness to pay for a good is affected by the presence of complements and substitutes. In an auction setting, this theory implies that the presence of complements would increase bid prices for a good, while the presence of substitutes would decrease bid prices for a good. However, several experimental auction studies have sold complementary or substitutable products without regard for the effects these actions could have on bidding behavior. Using data from an experimental auction specifically designed to test the effect of complements and substitutes on bids, we used both unconditional tests and conditional tests where we derived demand flexibilities to analyze whether selling complementary and substitutable products has an effect on bids. Our results show that the availability of complementary and substitutable products affects bids in the expected directions. This finding has important implications for researchers who design experimental auctions.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Tobacco Farmer Interest and Success in Income Diversification

As farm income from tobacco production has declined in recent years, there has been increasing interest in identifying alternative sources of income for tobacco farmers in the southern United States The recent termination of the tobacco quota program has accelerated the exit of tobacco farmers and has heightened concern regarding the availability of substitutes for tobacco production. In this study, we examine factors influencing tobacco farmers’ attempts to identify profitable alternatives to tobacco, their off-farm employment behavior, and changes in acres of tobacco cultivated using survey data collected from a panel of North Carolina tobacco farmers combined with market datadiversification, farm programs, farmer survey, quota buyout, tobacco, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, C33, Q12, Q18,

The Year\u27s at the Spring

The year’s at the spring, And day’s at the morn; Morning’s at seven; The hillside’s dew pearled; The lark’s on the wing; The snail’s on the thorn; God’s in his heaven, God’s in his heaven, All’s right, All’s right with the world

Tobacco Farmer Interest and Success in Diversification

As U.S. farm income from tobacco production has declined in recent years, there has been increased interest in developing alternative sources of farm revenue to replace lost tobacco income, particularly in tobacco-dependent communities of the southeastern United States. The recent end of the tobacco quota program is expected to accelerate the exit of tobacco farmers and has heightened concern regarding the availability of profitable substitutes for tobacco. In this study, we examine the impact of farm, household, and market characteristics on tobacco farmer interest and success in on-farm and off-farm income diversification. Using survey data collected from a panel of North Carolina tobacco farmers in 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2004 combined with market data collected from secondary sources, we evaluate the influence of farmer preferences, resource endowments, market incentives, risk, and biophysical factors on tobacco farmers' attitudes regarding diversification into non-tobacco products, the extent to which they reallocated resources towards non-tobacco products, and their success in identifying profitable alternatives to tobacco production. Our research contributes empirical findings to the public dialogue concerning the ability of tobacco farmers and tobacco-dependent communities to adjust to structural changes taking place in the tobacco market.Tobacco, farm diversification, household model, quota buyout., Farm Management,

How Will Tobacco Farmers Respond to the Quota Buyout? Findings from a Survey of North Carolina Tobacco Farmers

The tobacco quota buyout is expected to have significant impacts on U.S. tobacco markets, farmers, tobacco-dependent communities, and public health. Using data from four surveys of a panel of North Carolina tobacco farmers conducted between 1997 and 2004, we investigate changing farmer attitudes towards and intentions following a quota buyout.Crop Production/Industries,

The Effects of Avian Influenza News on Consumer Purchasing Behavior: A Case Study of Italian Consumers' Retail Purchases

To better understand how information about potential health hazards influences food demand, this case study examines consumers’ responses to newspaper articles on avian influenza, informally referred to as bird flu. The focus here is on the response to bird flu information in Italy as news about highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) unfolded in the period October 2004 through October 2006, beginning after reports of the first outbreaks in Southeast Asia and extending beyond the point at which outbreaks were reported in Western Europe. Estimated poultry demand, as influenced by the volume of newspaper reports on bird flu, reveals the magnitude and duration of newspaper articles’ impacts on consumers’ food choices. Larger numbers of bird flu news reports led to larger reductions in poultry purchases. Most impacts were of limited duration, and all began to diminish within 5 weeks.Avian influenza, bird flu, consumer behavior, food safety, poultry sales and consumption, risk perception and response, Agricultural and Food Policy, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade,

The Impact of Pork Advertising on US Meat Demand in the Presence of Competing Beef Advertising and Food Safety Events

We examine the effects of domestic advertising and promotion expenditures on meat demand, extending previous efforts in several areas, including the use of more recent data, employing a complete demand system and simultaneously measuring the impacts of generic pork and beef advertising and food safety information on the demand for beef, pork, and poultry. Using the Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS), own- and cross- beef and pork advertising and own- and cross- beef, pork, and poultry food safety effects are measured jointly and consistently. To allow for a more complex dynamic response of advertising and food safety effects, the flexible distributed lag technique of Mitchell and Speaker (1986) is employed. The coefficients on pork advertising in the pork and poultry equations are highly significant. The coefficients on beef advertising are only statistically significantly different from zero in the poultry equation indicating the primary impact from these efforts is a cross-commodity effect. To investigate the economic significance of these effects, elasticities for price, expenditure, food safety and advertising are calculated and compared. Consistent with previous work we find the impacts of advertising and food safety effects to be economically small compared with price and expenditure effects.food safety, Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System, generic advertising, meat demand, polynomial inverse lag, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,