The Ineffectiveness of Effective Tax Rates on Business Investment

In his Fisher-Schultz Lecture, Martin Feldstein examined the effects of non-neutral tax rules on business investment by estimating three econometric models, and he concluded that "the rising rate of inflation has, because of the structure of existing U.S. tax rules, substantially discouraged investment in the past 15 years." In a detailed examination of Feldstein's Effective Tax Rate model and a less extensive review of his other formulations (Neoclassical and Return-Over-Cost models), a number of important and independent criticisms are advanced. Our results from examining all three models suggest strongly that taxes have not adversely affected capital formation during the recent episode of inflation, a conclusion consistent with the relatively robust levels of net investment between 1965 and 1981 actually shown in the newly benchmarked National Income data.

Investment, Tobin's Q, and Multiple Capital Inputs

Despite their solid theoretical basis, models of business investment based on Tobin's Q theory have recorded a generally disappointing empirical performance. This paper examines one possible source of misspecification. When the firm's technology is expanded to include two or more capital inputs, the investment equation following from maximizing behavior includes Q as well as a series of additional explanatory variables. The importance of these omitted variables is assessed, and the econometric evidence is mixed, as the Multi-Capital Q model clearly dominates the Conventional specification but empirical problems remain. In addition, the implications of the parameter estimates from the Conventional and Multi-Capital models for tax policy are noted.

Investment Tax Credits

This paper examines the history, scope, and types of investment taxcredits (ITC's) implemented in the United States. Changing viewsabout the role of this fiscal policy tool are related to changing viewsabout the structure of the economy and the possibilities forconstructive public policies. The impact of the ITC on economicactivity is reviewed briefly.

Corporate Taxation, Capital Formation, and the Substitution Elasticity between Labor and Capital

This study provides some perspective on analyzing the effects of corporate taxation on capital formation. Our framework translates tax policy legislation into real outcomes, and identifies three parameters that play a central role in determining the impact on policy. The remainder of the paper focuses on the substitution elasticity between labor and capital. Several of the prominent studies representing the major contours of this research area over the past 40 years are examined. Our review of five general equilibrium studies indicates that alternative values of this elasticity matter a great deal for the welfare changes following from proposed tax reforms. The paper concludes with two lessons for tax policy analysis and some suggestions for future research.

Tobin's Q and Financial Policy

Recent research in macroeconomics has emphasized the importance of linking the financial and real sectors and the need for working with optimizing models. Tobin’s Q model of investment would appear to provide a framework that can satisfy these two criteria. In contrast to the original presentation of the Q model, the formal development has not recognized that the firm actively participates in a number of financial markets; in this broader context, we show that Q is likely to be an uninformative and possibly misleading signal for investment expenditures . We then endeavor to turn this negative theoretical result to positive advantage in resolving a number of empirical problems with Q models, but the modifications dictated by the theory receive little support from the data.

ó: The Long And Short Of It

Research on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor - σ - has been proceeding for 75 years. While there is clearly a strong case for the importance of σ in the analysis of growth and other economic issues, much less agreement exists on the value of σ. This paper offers some perspectives on prior estimates of σ, emphasizing the fundamental tension between the short-run data that are available and the long-run parameter that is required. Estimates of σ based on various short-run and long-run models are discussed and, while the estimates range widely, the weight of the evidence suggests a value of σ in the range of 0.40 to 0.60. There is little evidence to sustain the assumption of a Cobb-Douglas production function.production, function, capital formation, economic growth, estimating long-run relations

Intertemporal Constraints, Shadow Prices, and Financial Asset Values

The conditions under which the unobserved shadow price of capital can be equated to the financial value of the firm have been developed in an important paper by Hayashi (1982). Employing a more powerful analytic method, this paper reexamines the shadow price- asset value relation in a model with a general set of intertemporal constraints. For a model with one capital good, a general relation between shadow prices and asset values is derived, and restrictive assumptions implicit in previous work are highlighted. Of particular importance is the relation between the marginal and average survival rates of capital, and the critical role of geometric depreciation. The impact of a discrete-time framework in specifying and interpreting econometric models is also explored.

Noise vs. News in Equity Returns

What role does noise play in equity markets? Answering this question usually leads immediately to specifying a model of fundamentals and hence the pervasive joint hypothesis quagmire. We avoid this dilemma by measuring noise volatility directly by focusing on the behavior of country closed-end funds (CCEF’s) during foreign (i.e., non-U.S.) holidays – for example, the last days of Ramadan in Islamic countries. These holiday periods are times when the flow of fundamental information relevant to foreign equity markets is substantially reduced and hence trading of CCEF’s in U.S. markets can be responding only weakly, if at all, to fundamental information. We find that, controlling for the effects of industry and global shocks and of the overall U.S. market, there remains a substantial amount of noise in the equity returns of U.S. CCEF’s. In the absence of noise, the noise ratio statistic would be near zero. However, our results indicate statistically significant departures from zero, with values averaged over all U.S. CCEF’s ranging from 76-84% depending on assumptions about the leakage of information during holiday periods and kurtosis. Noise is negatively related to institutional ownership of U.S. CCEF's and is much less important for U.K. CCEF's. The lower levels of noise for matched U.K. and U.S. CCEF’s suggest that the U.K. securities transaction tax is effective in reducing stock market noise.equity market noise, inefficient markets, institutional ownership, securities transaction tax, closed-end funds

Corporate control mechanisms, voting and cash flow rights, and the performance of Dutch firms

This paper exploits several unique institutional features in the Dutch system of corporate control to examine the relations among investor protections, concentrated ownership, and firm performance. Four conclusions emerge. First, controlling shareholders do not appear to ameliorate corporate governance problems to any great extent. Second, the identity of ownership matters; when a firm is controlled by a few large individual shareholders, firm performance suffers. Expropriation costs are very high for this type of investor. Third, and somewhat at odds with the bulk of the prevailing literature, performance is enhanced when the firm is freed of equity market constraints. These results are consistent with recent theoretical models emphasizing that too much oversight can be detrimental to performance by forcing firms to underinvest in physical or human capital. Fourth, we distinguish between voting rights providing the means for intervening in firm affairs and cash flow rights providing the required motivation. Considering both rights are important for the empirical results. Apart from its substantive contributions, the paper develops a new four-step estimation strategy to control for the reverse causation problem plaguing econometric studies of corporate control mechanisms and firm performance.

The Marginal Product of Capital: A Persistent International Puzzle

Large and sustained differences in marginal products of capital (MPKs) across countries are sharply at odds with the core implications of the neoclassical framework. Lucas (1990) and many subsequent studies have examined reasons for this MPK differential. In a recent contribution, Caselli and Feyrer (2007) take the ground out from under this debate by reconsidering measurement issues and concluding that the MPK differential vanishes. Despite Caselli and Feyrer’s important advances in measurement, the international MPK puzzle persists. We show that the measurement of MPKs in their framework is substantially affected by adjustment costs in the accumulation of capital. With the proper technology and a plausible parameterization of adjustment costs, the MPK in poor countries is much higher than the MPK in rich countries. Why capital flows do not eliminate the MPK differential remains a persistent international puzzle. We examine the quantitative importance of financial frictions, relative prices, and adjustment costs in accounting for the MPK differential and document that adjustment costs provide the leading explanation.marginal product of capital, adjustment costs, macroeconomic analysis of economic development, international capital flows