Reporting of Model Performance and Statistical Methods in Studies That Use Machine Learning to Develop Clinical Prediction Models: Protocol for a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: With the growing excitement of the potential benefits of using machine learning and artificial intelligence in medicine, the number of published clinical prediction models that use these approaches has increased. However, there is evidence (albeit limited) that suggests that the reporting of machine learning-specific aspects in these studies is poor. Further, there are no reviews assessing the reporting quality or broadly accepted reporting guidelines for these aspects. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents the protocol for a systematic review that will assess the reporting quality of machine learning-specific aspects in studies that use machine learning to develop clinical prediction models. METHODS: We will include studies that use a supervised machine learning algorithm to develop a prediction model for use in clinical practice (ie, for diagnosis or prognosis of a condition or identification of candidates for health care interventions). We will search MEDLINE for studies published in 2019, pseudorandomly sort the records, and screen until we obtain 100 studies that meet our inclusion criteria. We will assess reporting quality with a novel checklist developed in parallel with this review, which includes content derived from existing reporting guidelines, textbooks, and consultations with experts. The checklist will cover 4 key areas where the reporting of machine learning studies is unique: modelling steps (order and data used for each step), model performance (eg, reporting the performance of each model compared), statistical methods (eg, describing the tuning approach), and presentation of models (eg, specifying the predictors that contributed to the final model). RESULTS: We completed data analysis in August 2021 and are writing the manuscript. We expect to submit the results to a peer-reviewed journal in early 2022. CONCLUSIONS: This review will contribute to more standardized and complete reporting in the field by identifying areas where reporting is poor and can be improved. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020206167; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=206167. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/30956

The Association between Mutational Signatures and Clinical Outcomes among Patients with Early-Onset Breast Cancer

Early-onset breast cancer (EoBC), defined by a diagnosis <40 years of age, is associated with poor prognosis. This study investigated the mutational landscape of non-metastatic EoBC and the prognostic relevance of mutational signatures using 100 tumour samples from Alberta, Canada. The MutationalPatterns package in R/Bioconductor was used to extract de novo single-base substitution (SBS) and insertion–deletion (indel) mutational signatures and to fit COSMIC SBS and indel signatures. We assessed associations between these signatures and clinical characteristics of disease, in addition to recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Five SBS and two indel signatures were extracted. The SBS13-like signature had higher relative contributions in the HER2-enriched subtype. Patients with higher than median contribution tended to have better RFS after adjustment for other prognostic factors (HR = 0.29; 95% CI: 0.08–1.06). An unsupervised clustering algorithm based on absolute contribution revealed three clusters of fitted COSMIC SBS signatures, but cluster membership was not associated with clinical variables or survival outcomes. The results of this exploratory study reveal various SBS and indel signatures may be associated with clinical features of disease and prognosis. Future studies with larger samples are required to better understand the mechanistic underpinnings of disease progression and treatment response in EoBC

The Association between Early-Onset Diagnosis and Clinical Outcomes in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Early-onset diagnosis, defined by age 60 years. The pooled odds of achieving pCR were significantly higher in early-onset patients. Future studies should evaluate the role of locoregional management of TNBC and the implementation of novel therapies such as PARP inhibitors in real-world settings, and whether they improve outcomes

Exploring the Future of Cancer Impact in Alberta: Projections and Trends 2020–2040

The impact of cancer in Alberta is expected to grow considerably, largely driven by population growth and aging. The Future of Cancer Impact (FOCI) initiative offers an overview of the present state of cancer care in Alberta and highlights potential opportunities for research and innovation across the continuum. In this paper, we present a series of detailed projections and analyses regarding cancer epidemiological estimates in Alberta, Canada. Data on cancer incidence and mortality in Alberta (1998–2018) and limited-duration cancer prevalence in Alberta (2000–2019) were collected from the Alberta Cancer Registry. We used the Canproj package in the R software to project these epidemiological estimates up to the year 2040. To estimate the direct management costs, we ran a series of microsimulations using the OncoSim All Cancers Model. Our findings indicate that from 2020, the total number of annual new cancer cases and cancer-related deaths are projected to increase by 56% and 49% by 2040, respectively. From 2019, the five-year prevalence of all cancers in Alberta is projected to increase by 86% by 2040. In line with these trends, the overall direct cost of cancer management is estimated to increase by 53% in 2040. These estimates and projections are integral to future strategic planning and investment