Second-generation p-values: improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a second-generation p-value - that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses, or with alternative hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.Comment: 29 pages, 29 page Supplemen

CRP polymorphisms and chronic kidney disease in the third national health and nutrition examination survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>CRP </it>gene polymorphisms are associated with serum C-reactive protein concentrations and may play a role in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. We recently reported an association between the gene variant rs2808630 and CKD progression in African Americans with hypertensive kidney disease. This association has not been studied in other ethnic groups.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from 5955 participants from Phase 2 of The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1991-1994) to study the association between <it>CRP </it>polymorphisms and CKD prevalence in a population-based sample. The primary outcome was CKD defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min or the presence of albuminuria. Secondary outcomes were the presence of albuminuria (any degree) and continuous eGFR. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the <it>CRP </it>gene, rs2808630, rs1205, rs3093066, rs1417938, rs3093058, and rs1800947, were evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>CRP </it>rs2808630 AG compared to the referent AA genotype was associated with CKD in non-Hispanic blacks (n = 1649, 293 of whom had CKD) with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.09 (95% CI 1.65-5.8; p = 0.001). For the secondary outcomes, rs2808630 AG compared to the referent AA genotype was associated with albuminuria with an adjusted OR of 3.07 (95% CI 1.59-5.94; p = 0.002), however not with eGFR. There was no association between the SNPs and CKD, albuminuria or eGFR in non-Hispanic whites or Mexicans Americans.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this cross-sectional study, the 3' flanking <it>CRP </it>gene variant rs2808630 was associated with CKD, mainly through its association with albuminuria in the non-Hispanic blacks. Despite not finding an association with eGFR, our results support our previous study demonstrating an association between <it>CRP </it>gene variant rs2808630 and CKD progression in a longitudinal cohort of African American with hypertensive kidney disease.</p

Comparative effectiveness of incident oral antidiabetic drugs on kidney function

Diabetes is a major cause of chronic kidney disease, and oral antidiabetic drugs are the mainstay of therapy for most patients with Type 2 diabetes. Here we evaluated their role on renal outcomes by using a national Veterans Administration database to assemble a retrospective cohort of 93,577 diabetic patients who filled an incident oral antidiabetic drug prescription for metformin, sulfonylurea, or rosiglitazone, and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 ml/min or better. The primary composite outcome was a persistent decline in eGFR from baseline of 25% or more (eGFR event) or a diagnosis of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The secondary outcome was an eGFR event, ESRD, or death. Sensitivity analyses included using a more stringent definition of the eGFR event requiring an eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in addition to the 25% or more decline; controlling for baseline proteinuria thereby restricting data to 15,065 patients; and not requiring persistent treatment with the initial oral antidiabetic drug. Compared to patients using metformin, sulfonylurea users had an increased risk for both the primary and the secondary outcome, each with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.20. Results of sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main findings. The risk associated with rosiglitazone was similar to metformin for both outcomes. Thus, compared to metformin, oral antidiabetic drug treatment with sulfonylureas increased the risk of a decline in eGFR, ESRD, or death

Early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation for prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 mortality in patients admitted to hospital in the United States: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation compared with no anticoagulation was associated with decreased risk of death among patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United States. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Nationwide cohort of patients receiving care in the Department of Veterans Affairs, a large integrated national healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS: All 4297 patients admitted to hospital from 1 March to 31 July 2020 with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and without a history of anticoagulation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was 30 day mortality. Secondary outcomes were inpatient mortality, initiating therapeutic anticoagulation (a proxy for clinical deterioration, including thromboembolic events), and bleeding that required transfusion. RESULTS: Of 4297 patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, 3627 (84.4%) received prophylactic anticoagulation within 24 hours of admission. More than 99% (n=3600) of treated patients received subcutaneous heparin or enoxaparin. 622 deaths occurred within 30 days of hospital admission, 513 among those who received prophylactic anticoagulation. Most deaths (510/622, 82%) occurred during hospital stay. Using inverse probability of treatment weighted analyses, the cumulative incidence of mortality at 30 days was 14.3% (95% confidence interval 13.1% to 15.5%) among those who received prophylactic anticoagulation and 18.7% (15.1% to 22.9%) among those who did not. Compared with patients who did not receive prophylactic anticoagulation, those who did had a 27% decreased risk for 30 day mortality (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.81). Similar associations were found for inpatient mortality and initiation of therapeutic anticoagulation. Receipt of prophylactic anticoagulation was not associated with increased risk of bleeding that required transfusion (hazard ratio 0.87, 0.71 to 1.05). Quantitative bias analysis showed that results were robust to unmeasured confounding (e-value lower 95% confidence interval 1.77 for 30 day mortality). Results persisted in several sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation compared with no anticoagulation among patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 was associated with a decreased risk of 30 day mortality and no increased risk of serious bleeding events. These findings provide strong real world evidence to support guidelines recommending the use of prophylactic anticoagulation as initial treatment for patients with covid-19 on hospital admission

Early Initiation of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Individuals with Affected First-degree Relatives

BACKGROUND: Several guidelines recommend initiating colorectal cancer screening at age 40 for individuals with affected first-degree relatives, yet little evidence exists describing how often these individuals receive screening procedures. OBJECTIVES: To determine the proportion of individuals in whom early initiation of colorectal cancer screening might be indicated and whether screening disparities exist. DESIGN: Population-based Supplemental Cancer Control Module to the 2000 National Health Interview Survey. PARTICIPANTS: Respondents, 5,564, aged 40 to 49 years were included within the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Patient self-report of sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, or fecal occult blood test. RESULTS: Overall, 279 respondents (5.4%: 95% C.I., 4.7, 6.2) reported having a first-degree relative affected with colorectal cancer. For individuals with a positive family history, 67 whites (27.9%: 95% C.I., 21.1, 34.5) and 3 African American (9.3%: 95% C.I., 1.7, 37.9) had undergone an endoscopic procedure within the previous 10 years (P-value = .03). After adjusting for age, family history, gender, educational level, insurance status, and usual source of care, whites were more likely to be current with early initiation endoscopic screening recommendations than African Americans (OR = 1.38: 95% C.I., 1.01, 1.87). Having an affected first-degree relative with colorectal cancer appeared to have a stronger impact on endoscopic screening for whites (OR = 3.21: 95% C.I., 2.31, 4.46) than for African Americans (OR = 1.05: 95% C.I., 0.15, 7.21). CONCLUSIONS: White participants with a family history are more likely to have endoscopic procedures beginning before age 50 than African Americans

Environmental Factors Influence Language Development in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

International audienc

Early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation for prevention of COVID-19 mortality: a nationwide cohort study of hospitalized patients in the United States.

Importance: Deaths among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are partially attributed to venous thromboembolism and arterial thromboses. Anticoagulants prevent thrombosis formation, possess anti-inflammatory and anti-viral properties, and may be particularly effective for treating patients with COVID-19. Objective: To evaluate whether initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation within 24 hours of admission is associated with decreased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Design: Observational cohort study. Setting: Nationwide cohort of patients receiving care in the Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States. Participants: All patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection March 1 to July 31, 2020, without a history of therapeutic anticoagulation. Exposures: Prophylactic doses of subcutaneous heparin, low-molecular-weight heparin, or direct oral anticoagulants. Main Outcomes and Measures: 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes: inpatient mortality and initiating therapeutic anticoagulation. Results: Of 4,297 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 3,627 (84.4%) received prophylactic anticoagulation within 24 hours of admission. More than 99% (n=3,600) received subcutaneous heparin or enoxaparin. We observed 622 deaths within 30 days of admission, 513 among those who received prophylactic anticoagulation. Most deaths (510/622, 82%) occurred during hospitalization. In inverse probability of treatment weighted analyses, cumulative adjusted incidence of mortality at 30 days was 14.3% (95% CI 13.1-15.5) among those receiving prophylactic anticoagulation and 18.7% (95% CI 15.1-22.9) among those who did not. Compared to patients who did not receive prophylactic anticoagulation, those who did had a 27% decreased risk for 30-day mortality (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.81). Similar associations were found for inpatient mortality and initiating therapeutic anticoagulation. Quantitative bias analysis demonstrated that results were robust to unmeasured confounding (e-value lower 95% CI 1.77). Results persisted in a number of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: Early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was associated with a decreased risk of mortality. These findings provide strong real-world evidence to support guidelines recommending the use of prophylactic anticoagulation as initial therapy for COVID-19 patients upon hospital admission

Sequential matched randomization and a case for covariate-adaptive randomization

Background: Sequential Matched Randomization (SMR) is one of multiple recent covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures that utilize a distance matrix to improve covariate-balance and estimation efficiency. Randomization occurs within mates whose distance meet an a-priori, fixed similarity quantile of random distances. Methods: We extend SMR to allow multiple participants to be randomized simultaneously, to allow matches to break and rematch if a better match later enrolls (Sequential Rematched Randomization; SRR), and to use a dynamic threshold. In simplified settings which vary covariate distribution and association upon outcome, we compare end-study covariate-balance and estimator efficiency in SMR before and after extensions. In a real-world application, we compare covariate-balance, power, and estimator efficiency of SMR before and after extensions when adjusting for priority covariates and all covariates of interest. We compare with Complete Randomization (CR) and CR followed by a flexible, covariate-adjusted regression model. As side-by-side comparisons, we include stratified randomization, D$_A$ optimality biased coin design (D$_A$-BCD), and Pairwise Sequential Randomization (PSR). Results: In both the simplified and real-world application, we observe benefits of each extension upon covariate balance and estimator efficiency. In the real-world application, SRR with a dynamic threshold, D$_A$-BCD, and PSR provide greater power than CR followed by a covariate-adjusted regression model. Matching methods achieved greater covariate-balance when adjusting for all covariates yet greater power and efficiency when adjusting for priority covariates. Conclusion: We improve upon SMR and show the potential for CAR methods -- that adjusting for covariates in randomization can outperform covariate adjustment in a flexible regression model.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

Illustration of the false discovery rate (red) and false confirmation rate (blue) for second-generation <i>p</i>-values (solid lines).

<p>The false discovery rate (red) and false non-discovery rate (blue) from a comparable hypothesis test are shown as dotted lines. This example uses r = 1, α = 0.05, δ = σ/2, and n = 16, but the ordering of the curves is quite general.</p