Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Transport: All in One Basket?

Analysis after analysis has shown consistently that if policy-makers aiming to meet climate goals are looking for the most-efficient, least-distortionary way to target emissions growth, there is simply nothing better than abandoning all emissions regulations except for one: A straight, revenue-neutral carbon tax. Nothing works through more channels, at a lower cost. Alas, policy-makers are not always looking for the most-efficient, least-distortionary way to target emissions growth. That’s because many of those same analyses show that in order to reach emissions targets, the price on carbon would have to be so punitive as to be politically unbearable, raising the price of gasoline, for example, by about a dollar a litre. That leads politicians to mix in other policies that are less visible to the consumer but also less efficient, less effective and more expensive in abating carbon dioxide. The recently negotiated Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change intends to follow that model, relying on a blend of different policies to help reach Canada’s Paris climate targets. But while the government seems therefore determined to rule out the possibility of a nothing-but-a-carbon-tax plan, it is possible, through the careful application of just the right sort of emission-reduction approaches, to reduce the costs of abatement in a key policy target — namely, road transportation — to a level that at least approaches the lower cost of a carbon tax.  The government will likely consider several options in trying to reduce emissions from road transportation. Typical tools include requiring manufacturers to meet standards for new vehicles that mandate fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions; gasoline taxes; taxes on emissions-intensive vehicles; subsidies for low-emission or zero-emission vehicles; and subsidies for public transit. Indications are that a low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) will play a significant role in the Pan-Canadian Framework. Applied carefully, an LCFS combined with a mandate for automakers to sell more electric vehicles would be an appropriate policy for Canada to achieve meaningful emissions reductions at a tolerable cost, given other policy measures already committed to. Subsidies for electric vehicles, however, should be avoided as they turn out to be one of the least cost-effective policies to reduce emissions. Requiring car makers to sell more electric vehicles will lead to higher prices for standard internal-combustion vehicles as automakers are forced to spread the cost of the electric-vehicle mandate across their non-electric models. That in turn will lead to cheaper electric cars and pricier non-electric cars, making it likelier that consumers will gravitate in increasing numbers to electric cars, helping reduce emissions. Meanwhile, as the LFCS standard is raised, drivers of internal-combustion vehicles will face an even higher cost of filling up, again prompting more drivers to consider switching to electric vehicles. The combined effect — achievable at close to the cost of a carbon tax — will make it more expensive to drive a gasoline-powered car, similar to the effect of a carbon tax on drivers, but less visible and so less politically risky

Salience of Carbon Taxes in the Gasoline Market

We demonstrate that the carbon tax imposed by the Canadian province of British Columbia caused a decline in short-run gasoline demand that is significantly greater than would be expected from an equivalent increase in the market price of gasoline. That the carbon tax is more salient, or yields a larger change in demand than equivalent market price movements, is robust to a range of specifications. As a result of the large consumer response to the tax, we calculate that during its first four years, the tax reduced carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline consumption by 3.6 million tonnes

The Effect of Carbon Taxes on Agricultural Trade

This study evaluates the implications of an actual carbon tax on international trade in the agricultural sector. Applying uniformly to all fossil fuels combusted within its borders, the province of British Columbia unilaterally introduced a carbon tax on July 1, 2008. In 2012, the province granted an exemption from the tax to certain agricultural sectors. Using commodity specific trade flows and exploiting cross-provincial and inter-temporal variation, we find little evidence that the carbon tax is associated with any meaningful effects on agricultural trade despite the sector being singled out as “at risk” by the provincial government. Our findings suggest that there is not compelling evidence to support exempting the agricultural sector from the tax. Discussion of potential policy remedies to address the tax’s potential effects on firm profitability and international competitiveness is also included

Water temperature and fish distribution in the Sabie River system : towards the development of an adaptive management tool.

Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2003.Water temperatures are a fundamental water quality component, and a key abiotic determinant of fish distribution patterns in rivers. A river 's thermal regime is the product of a multitude of thermal drivers and buffers interacting at different temporal and spatial scales, including, inter alia, air temperatures, flow volumes (including groundwater flows and lateral inputs from tributaries), channel geomorphology and riparian vegetation. "Healthy" river systems are self-sustaining, with adequate thermal variability to maintain biotic diversity. Temporal variability of flow volumes and water temperatures, and how these change along the longitudinal axis of a river, contribute towards a rivers "signature". Rivers that have had their signatures altered through anthropogenic impacts may no longer be sustainable, and require varying levels of management. Successful river management should include a quantification of these signatures , a definition of the "desired" state which management aims to achieve, associated "thresholds" of change or concern, and monitoring programmes. Such an approach requires flexibility and adaptability, as well as appropriate tools being available to natural resource managers. Indices, the utility of which are enhanced when included in predicative modelling systems, are a common means of assessing system variability and change. The degree of confidence placed in such tools depends on the level of fundamental science, and the degree of system understanding, underpinning them. This research contributes to the understanding of the ecological significance . of water temperatures in variable semi-arid river systems, using the Sabie River (Mpumalanga, South Africa) as a case study, and indices derived from biological indicators (Chiloglanis , Pisces: Mochokidae) to quantify the effects of cumulative changes in heat units against a hypothesised critical water temperature threshold. Hourly water temperatures for 20002002 collected at nine sites in the main rivers of the Sabie catchment, together with biannual surveys of relative abundances and community patterns of fish collected using standard electrofishing techniques, were used to provide the basis for a modelling system which aims to provide river managers with a tool for quantifying changes to the thermal regime of the Sabie River. This modelling system consisted of a suite of pragmatic models, including multiple linear regression models for simulating daily maximum water temperatures, and simple cause-and-effect relationships between biological indices (change In condition factor and change in the ratio of relative abundances of two species of Chiloglanis) and annual metrics of time-of-exposure to heat stress. It was concluded that changes in the thermal regimes of the rivers in the Sabie catchment are likely to lead to changes in fish distribution patterns, and a decline in river health. Inherent system variability suggests that management decisions will be made in the face considerable uncertainty. Indirect management of water temperatures may be possible through maintenance of flow volumes and flow variability. However, the most appropriate management approach for maintaining fish diversity within these rivers is to ensure that obstacles to fish migration are minimized, to maximise the ability of river biota to respond to thermal changes, by accessing suitable alternative habitats or refugia. Future research should focus on extending the time series of water temperatures from such river systems, and further understanding the drivers and buffers contributing to the thermal regimes of variable semi-arid river systems in South Africa. Additional testing of the validity of the hypothesized relationships between abiotic processes underpinning biotic patterns should be undertaken

New Vehicle Feebates

New vehicle feebate programs encourage improved fleet‐wide vehicle fuel efficiency; yet analyses of these policies have been limited to ad hoc proposals. In this paper, we exploit an extensive, multi‐year dataset which includes more than 16 million observations to evaluate the welfare implications of a long‐standing vehicle feebate program in the Canadian province of Ontario. We: (1) show that second‐best optimal feebates can be written as a function of new vehicle Pigouvian taxes; (2) find that Ontario\u27s feebate program was welfare‐enhancing relative to a no feebate scenario but that a second‐best optimal benchmark would have yielded additional welfare while reducing fleet‐wide emissions; and (3) find that Ontarian consumers responded asymmetrically to fees versus rebates

Visualizing Energy Efficiency: A Picture is Worth More Than 1,022 Words

We deploy a randomized controlled trial involving approximately 12,500 householdsshowing that providing consumers with a visual depiction of heat loss on utility bills leads toconsiderably larger energy savings compared to a popular social comparison “nudge”. Imagesshowing roof heat loss were provided to approximately 4,000 randomly selected householdsin on-bill messaging. Heat loss is visualized using infrared images taken from an aircraft-mounted infrared sensor during the winter heating season. A similarly-sized randomlyselected group received bill messaging with a ‘traditional’ social norm comparing theirconsumption to similar homes. We also find that the heat loss treatment results in a higherrate of realized energy efficiency durables investment and leads households to conserve in amanner consistent with private and social efficiency: the most inefficient households exhibitmuch larger energy reductions relative to the traditional social comparison

Alerts work! Air quality warnings and cycling

Alert programs are central to strategies to reduce pollution exposure and manage its impact. To be effective alerts have to change behavior, but evidence that they do that is sparse. Indeed the majority of published studies fail to find a significant impact of alerts on the outcome behavior that they study. Alerts particularly seek to influence energetic cardio-vascular outdoor pursuits. This study is the first to use administrative data to show that they are effective in reducing participation in such a pursuit (namely cycle use in Sydney, Australia), and to our knowledge the first to show that they are effective in changing any behavior in a non-US setting. We are careful to disentangle possible reactions to realised air quality from the ‘pure’, causal effect of the issuance of an alert. Our results suggest that when an air quality alert is issued, the amount of cycling is reduced by 14–35%, which is a substantial behavioral response. The results are robust to the inclusion of a battery of controls in various combinations, alternative estimation methods and non-linear specifications. We develop various sub-sample results, and also find evidence of alert fatigue

Pollution and Politicians: The Effect of PM on MPs

Applying methods of textual and stylometric analysis to all 119,225 speeches made in the Canadian House of Commons between 2006 and 2011, we establish that air pollution reduces the speech quality of Canadian Members of Parliament (MPs). Exposure to fine particulate matter concentrations exceeding 15 μg/m3 causes a 3.1 percent reduction in the quality of MPs speech (equivalent to a 3.6 months of education). For more difficult communication tasks the decrement in quality is equivalent to the loss of 6.5 months of schooling. Our design accounts for the potential endogeneity of exposure and controls for many potential confounders including individual fixed effects. Politicians are professional communicators and as such the analysis contributes to our evolving understanding of how pollution exposure impacts the execution of work-relevant skills. Though we are cautious in interpreting the effect as a clean metric for performance, the effect size is around half that established in recent research for workers engaged in physical work tasks. Insofar as the changed speech patterns reflect diminished mental acuity the results make plausible detrimental effects of air pollution on productivity in a wider set of communication-intensive work settings

P2_05 Volcanoes on Io

Jupiter’s moon Io is the most volcanically active body in the solar system. This paper seeks to quantify this activity by comparing Io’s measured thermal output to the theoretical energy production from tidal heating. Methods for transferring this energy to the surface are then discussed

Stretching the Duck's Neck: The effect of climate change on future electricity demand

This paper examines how climate change will affect both the level and timing of future electricity demand across Canada. Using an original dataset of hourly electricity demand across all Canadian provinces combined with household-level microdata on air conditioner ownership, we estimate temperature responsiveness including both the direct effect of temperature on demand for cooling services, as well as the indirect effect of increasing the stock of temperature-sensitive durables, such as air conditioners. We find only a small increase in total demand by end-century, although the result differs across provinces. The small aggregate result reflects the mitigating effect of rising temperature in a cold country such as Canada, whereby increases in electricity demand for air conditioning as summer temperatures rise is largely offset by reduced winter heating demand. Although we project limited change in overall electricity demand, we do project changes in the timing of demand, both seasonally and diurnally. In particular, we find seasonal peaks shift from winter to summer in most regions, as well as a large increase in intraday ramping requirements—the difference between minimum and maximum demand within a day—suggesting electricity systems of the future will place an even greater value on storage and flexibility