Crustal rheology and postseismic deformation: Modeling and application to the Apinnenes

Aerospace Engineerin

The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes

The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the first decade of the 21st Century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature for ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects for the nine year period 2000–2008. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL) reduction for much of North Western Europe and Eastern Canada. RSL rise from this source is concentrated around South America. Losses in West Antarctica marginally compensate for this and produce maxima along the coastlines of North America, Australia and Oceania. The combined far-field pattern of wastage from all ice melt sources, is dominated by losses from the ice sheets and results in maxima at latitudes between 20° N and 40° S across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, affecting particularly vulnerable land masses in Oceania. The spatial pattern of RSL variations from ice mass losses used in this study is time-invariant and cumulative. Thus, sea level rise, based on the gravitational effects from the ice losses considered here, will be amplified for this sensitive region.Remote SensingAerospace Engineerin

A global semi-empirical glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data

The effect of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) on the shape and gravity of the Earth is usually described by numerical models that solve for both glacial evolution and Earth's rheology, being mainly constrained by the geological evidence of local ice extent and globally distributed sea level data, as well as by geodetic observations of Earth's rotation. In recent years, GPS and GRACE observations have often been used to improve those models, especially in the context of regional studies. However, consistency issues between different regional models limit their ability to answer questions from global-scale geodesy. Examples are the closure of the sea level budget, the explanation of observed changes in Earth's rotation, and the determination of the origin of the Earth's reference frame. Here, we present a global empirical model of present-day GIA, solely based on GRACE data and on geoid fingerprints of mass redistribution.We will show how the use of observations from a single space-borne platform, together with GIA fingerprints based on different viscosity profiles, allows us to tackle the questions from globalscale geodesy mentioned above. We find that, in the GRACE era (2003-2016), freshwater exchange between land and oceans has caused global mean sea level to rise by 1:2±0:2mmyr-11, the geocentre to move by 0:4± 0:1mmyr-11, and the Earth's dynamic oblateness (J2) to increase by 6:0±0:4×10-11 yr-11,.Physical and Space Geodes

Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Models of Long-Term GIA Uplift and Sea Level Change: An Overview

This work provides a comparison of four approaches that can be used to describe uncertainty in models of the long-term glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process. The four methods range from pessimistic to optimistic representations of GIA uncertainty. Each estimation method is applied to selected one dimensional GIA model predictions and compared with vertical land motion data from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements across Fennoscandia and North America. The methods are evaluated relative to two main properties: (1) their expected ability to separate non-GIA from GIA signals and (2) their estimated statistical appropriateness given a specific GIA model and data set. For the first point, non-GIA signals are considered isolated from the long-term (millennial time scale) GIA signal at sites where measurement and model uncertainties do not overlap. Across methods, the frequency and accuracy with which non-GIA signals are separated from GIA signals in GPS data display both consistent similarities and disparities. For the second point, we compare model predictions with rates of vertical land motion and relative sea level change that have been cleaned of non-GIA signals to determine the most appropriate value of model uncertainty and relate the findings to the four approaches. Best fit inferences suggest that within deglaciation centers, GIA model uncertainty is up to ~2 mm/yr (vertical land motion). Likewise, away from the former ice sheet centers, GIA uncertainty for relative sea level change is inferred to be ~0.3–0.5 mm/yr along the U.S. East Coast and ~0.6–0.8 mm/yr in the North Sea.Physical and Space Geodes

Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocentermotion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models

The focus of the study is optimizing the technique for estimating geocenter motion and variations in J2 by combining data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission with output from an Ocean Bottom Pressure model and a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model. First, we conduct an end-to-end numerical simulation study. We generate input time-variable gravity field observations by perturbing a synthetic Earth model with realistically simulated errors. We show that it is important to avoid large errors at short wavelengths and signal leakage from land to ocean, as well as to account for self-attraction and loading effects. Second, the optimal implementation strategy is applied to real GRACE data. We show that the estimates of annual amplitude in geocenter motion are in line with estimates from other techniques, such as satellite laser ranging (SLR) and global GPS inversion. At the same time, annual amplitudes of C10 and C11 are increased by about 50% and 20%, respectively, compared to estimates based on Swenson et al. (2008). Estimates of J2 variations are by about 15% larger than SLR results in terms of annual amplitude. Linear trend estimates are dependent on the adopted GIA model but still comparable to some SLR results.Physical and Space GeodesyLaboratory Geoscience and Remote Sensin

A comparison of methods to estimate vertical land motion trends from GNSS and altimetry at tide gauge stations

Tide gauge (TG) records are affected by vertical land motion (VLM), causing them to observe relative instead of geocentric sea level. VLM can be estimated from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series, but only a few TGs are equipped with a GNSS receiver. Hence, (multiple) neighboring GNSS stations can be used to estimate VLM at the TG. This study compares eight approaches to estimate VLM trends at 570 TG stations using GNSS by taking into account all GNSS trends with an uncertainty smaller than 1mm yr-1 within 50km. The range between the methods is comparable with the formal uncertainties of the GNSS trends. Taking the median of the surrounding GNSS trends shows the best agreement with differenced altimetry-tide gauge (ALT-TG) trends. An attempt is also made to improve VLM trends from ALT-TG time series. Only using highly correlated along-track altimetry and TG time series reduces the SD of ALT-TG time series by up to 10%. As a result, there are spatially coherent changes in the trends, but the reduction in the root mean square (RMS) of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends is insignificant. However, setting correlation thresholds also acts like a filter to remove problematic TG time series. This results in sets of ALT-TG VLM trends at 344-663 TG locations, depending on the correlation threshold. Compared to other studies, we decrease the RMS of differences between GNSS and ALT-TG trends (from 1.47 to 1.22mm yr-1), while we increase the number of locations (from 109 to 155), Depending on the methods the mean of differences between ALT-TG and GNSS trends vary between 0.1 and 0.2mm yr-1. We reduce the mean of the differences by taking into account the effect of elastic deformation due to present-day mass redistribution. At varying ALT-TG correlation thresholds, we provide new sets of trends for 759 to 939 different TG stations. If both GNSS and ALT-TG trend estimates are available, we recommend using the GNSS trend estimates because residual ocean signals might correlate over long distances. However, if large discrepancies ( > 3mm yr-1) between the two methods are present, local VLM differences between the TG and the GNSS station are likely the culprit and therefore it is better to take the ALT-TG trend estimate. GNSS estimates for which only a single GNSS station and no ALT-TG estimate are available might still require some inspection before they are used in sea level studies.Physical and Space Geodes

Identifying Geographical Patterns of Transient Deformation in the Geological Sea Level Record

In this study, we examine the effect of transient mantle creep on the prediction of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signals. Specifically, we compare predictions of relative sea level (RSL) change from GIA from a set of Earth models in which transient creep parameters are varied in a simple Burgers model to a reference case with a Maxwell viscoelastic rheology. The model predictions are evaluated in two ways: first, relative to each other to quantify the effect of parameter variation, and second, for their ability to reproduce well-constrained sea level records from selected locations. Both the resolution and geographic location of the RSL observations determine whether the data can distinguish between model cases. Model predictions are most sensitive to the inclusion of transient mantle deformation in regions that are near-field and peripheral relative to former ice sheets. This sensitivity appears particularly true along the North American west coast in the region of the former Cordilleran Ice Sheet, which experienced rapid sea-level fall following deglaciation between 14 and 12 kyr BP. Relative to the Maxwell case, Burgers models better reproduce this rapid phase of regional postglacial sea-level fall. As well, computed goodness-of-fit values in this region show a clear preference for models where transient deformation is present in the whole or lower mantle, and for models where the rigidity of the Kelvin element is weakened relative to the rigidity of the Maxwell element. In contrast, model predictions of relative sea-level change in the far-field show weak sensitivity to the inclusion of transient deformation.Physical and Space Geodes

A revised acceleration rate from the altimetry-derived global mean sea level record

Satellite radar altimetry has been providing estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) since 1992. The early TOPEX record originates from two identical instruments, which requires the estimation of an intermission bias and careful handling of the problematic first part of the record. Calibration of TOPEX is crucial to obtain a continuous and consistent record, which is needed to quantify any recent acceleration. We propose a novel approach to calibrate TOPEX altimeter data using sea surface height differences at crossovers of TOPEX and ERS. Tide gauges are only used to determine a drift in one of the two datasets. We provide a new and more accurate estimate of the intra-mission bias, which leads to a much reduced GMSL acceleration over the whole record. Hence, the conundrum of an uncertain GMSL acceleration from altimetry is still unsolved, in spite of recent opposite claims, and in contrast to the expected effect of ocean warming and continental freshwater fluxes.Mathematical Geodesy and PositioningPhysical and Space Geodes

Do subduction earthquakes influence slip rates on nearby major transform faults? The Sulawesi case.

Physical and Space GeodesyAstrodynamics & Space Mission

Ocean contribution to seismic gravity changes: The sea level equation for seismic perturbations revisited

During megathrust earthquakes, great ruptures are accompanied by large scale mass redistribution inside the solid Earth and by ocean mass redistribution due to bathymetry changes. These large scale mass displacements can be detected using the monthly gravity maps of the GRACE satellite mission. In recent years it has become increasingly common to use the long wavelength changes in the Earth's gravity field observed by GRACE to infer seismic source properties for large megathrust earthquakes. An important advantage of space gravimetry is that it is independent from the availability of land for its measurements. This is relevant for observation of megathrust earthquakes, which occur mostly offshore, such as the Mw?9 2004 Sumatra–Andaman, 2010 Maule (Chile) and 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) events. In Broerse et al., we examined the effect of the presence of an ocean above the rupture on long wavelength gravity changes and showed it to be of the first order. Here we revisit the implementation of an ocean layer through the sea level equation and compare the results with approximated methods that have been used in the literature. One of the simplifications usually lies in the assumption of a globally uniform ocean layer. We show that especially in the case of the 2010 Maule earthquake, due to the closeness of the South American continent, the uniform ocean assumption is not valid and causes errors up to 57?per?cent for modelled peak geoid height changes (expressed at a spherical harmonic truncation degree of 40). In addition, we show that when a large amount of slip occurs close to the trench, horizontal motions of the ocean floor play a mayor role in the ocean contribution to gravity changes. Using a slip model of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that places the majority of slip close to the surface, the peak value in geoid height change increases by 50?per?cent due to horizontal ocean floor motion. Furthermore, we test the influence of the maximum spherical harmonic degree at which the sea level equation is performed for sea level changes occurring along coastlines, which shows to be important for relative sea level changes occurring along the shore. Finally, we demonstrate that ocean floor loading, self-gravitation of water and conservation of water mass are of second order importance for coseismic gravity changes. When GRACE observations are used to determine earthquake parameters such as seismic moment or source depth, the uniform ocean layer method introduces large biases, depending on the location of the rupture with respect to the continent. The same holds for interpreting shallow slip when horizontal motions are not properly accounted for in the ocean contribution. In both cases the depth at which slip occurs will be underestimated.Geoscience and Remote SensingCivil Engineering and Geoscience