Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a measure of liquidity, we find that large and small banks have opposite effects. Specifically, our results suggest that the local group of large banks' liquidity increases variability, whereas the local group of small banks' liquidity reduces variability

Bank Capital Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Switzerland

In recent years, regulators have increased their focus on the capital adequacy of banking institutions to enhance the stability of the financial system. The purpose of the present paper is to shed some light on whether and how Swiss Banks react to constraints placed by the regulator on their capital. Building on previous work by Shrieves and Dahl (1992), we use a simultaneous equations model to analyse adjustments in capital and risk at Swiss banks, when those approach the minimum regulatory capital level. Our results indicate that regulatory pressure induce banks to increase their capital, but does not affect the level of risk.Risk-based capital; Capital ratios; Portfolio risk

The UBS-SBC Merger and Competition in the Swiss Retail Banking Sector

We address two questions about the impact of the UBS-SBC merger: (i) How will the concentration in the Swiss retail banking market change, and (ii) what are the expected consequences for the consumers. The answer to the first question is based on a comparison of Herfindahl and C3-indices in 1997 as they actually have been to as they could have been if the banks already had been merged. For both types of indices, and for the two product groups considered (loans and mortgages, savings deposits) the impact of the merger is huge. To answer the second question, we have examined how concentration interfered with savings deposits and mortgages interest rates in the previous decade, between the cantons and over time. The results obtained for savings deposits indicate that the structure performance hypothesis dominates for large cantons, while the efficiency hypothesis and the contestable market hypotheses cannot be rejected for small cantons. For mortgages, the contestable market hypotheses clearly dominates for large cantons, while for small cantons evidence is split between the efficiency hypothesis and the contestable market hypothesis.

Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets

We study dealer behavior in the foreign exchange spot market using a detailed data set on the complete transactions of four dealers. There is strong support for an information effect in incoming trades. Although there is evidence that the information effect increases with trade size in direct bilateral trades, the direction of a trade seems to be more important. The large share of electronically brokered trades is probably responsible for this finding. In direct trades it is the initiating dealer that determines trade size, while in broker trades it is the dealer submitting the limit order that determines the maximum trade size. We also find strong evidence of inventory control for all the four dealers. Inventory control is not, however, manifested through a dealer's own prices as suggested in inventory models. This is different from the strong price effect from inventory control found in previous work by Lyons [J. Fin. Econ 39(1995) 321]. A possible explanation for this finding is that the introduction of electronic brokers allowed more trading options. Furthermore, we document differences in trading styles among the four dealers, especially how they actually control their inventories.Foreign Exchange; Trading; Microstructure

The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence

Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.

Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a measure of liquidity, we find that large and small banks have opposite effects. Specifically, our results suggest that the local group of large banks' liquidity increases variability, whereas the local group of small banks' liquidity reduces variability.

Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets

We study dealer behavior in the foreign exchange spot market using a detailed data set on the complete transactions of four dealers. There is strong support for an information effect in incoming trades. Although there is evidence that the information effect increases with trade size in direct bilateral trades, the direction of a trade seems to be more important. The large share of electronically brokered trades is probably responsible for this finding. In direct trades it is the initiating dealer that determines trade size, while in broker trades it is the dealer submitting the limit order that determines the maximum trade size. We also find strong evidence of inventory control for all the four dealers. Inventory control is not, however, manifested through a dealer's own prices as suggested in inventory models. This is different from the strong price effect from inventory control found in previous work by Lyons [J. Fin. Econ 39(1995) 321]. A possible explanation for this finding is that the introduction of electronic brokers allowed more trading options. Furthermore, we document differences in trading styles among the four dealers, especially how they actually control their inventories.Foreign Exchange; Trading; Microstructure

The Performance of Universal Banks: Evidence from Switzerland

This paper examines the production structure of Swiss banks in the period 1996-99. Using a variety of output specifications, we find evidence of large relative inefficiencies across Swiss banks. The results show the importance of accounting for the broad range of activities that universal banks undertake, e.g., failure to account for off-balance sheet items, trading, and brokerage and portfolio management activities leads profit efficiency to be dramatically understated. We find evidence of economies of scale for small and mid-size banks, but little evidence that significant scale economies remain for the very largest banks. Finally, evidence on scope economies is weak for the largest banks that are involved in a wide variety of activities. These results suggest few obvious benefits from the trend toward larger universal banks.

Bank Integration and Business Volatility in the U.S.

We investigate how bank migration across state lines over the last quarter century has affected the size and covariance of business fluctuations within states. Starting with a two-state version of the unit banking model in Holmstrom and Tirole (1997), we conclude that the theoretical effect of integration on business cycle size is ambiguous, as some shocks are dampened by integration, but others are amplified. Empirically, we find that integration diminishes employment growth fluctuations within states, and decreases the deviations in employment growth across states. Business cycles within states become smaller with integration, in other words, but more alike. Our results for the United States bear on the financial convergence underway in Europe, where banks remain highly fragmented across nations.

Identifying reliable traits across laboratory mouse exploration arenas: A meta-analysis

This study is a meta-analysis of 367 mice from a collection of behaviour neuroscience and behaviour genetic studies run in the same lab in Zurich, Switzerland. We employed correlation-based statistics to confirm and quantify consistencies in behaviour across the testing environments. All 367 mice ran exactly the same behavioural arenas: the light/dark box, the null maze, the open field arena, an emergence task and finally an object exploration task. We analysed consistency of three movement types across those arenas (resting, scanning, progressing), and their relative preference for three zones of the arenas (home, transition, exploration). Results were that 5/6 measures showed strong individual-differences consistency across the tests. Mean inter-arena correlations for these five measures ranged from +.12 to +.53. Unrotated principal component factor analysis (UPCFA) and Cronbach’s alpha measures showed these traits to be reliable and substantial (32-63% of variance across the five arenas). UPCFA loadings then indicate which tasks give the best information about these cross-task traits. One measure (that of time spent in “intermediate” zones) was not reliable across arenas. Conclusions centre on the use of individual differences research and behavioural batteries to revise understandings of what measures in one task predict for behaviour in others. Developing better behaviour measures also makes sound scientific and ethical sense