Commodity Prices Pass-Through

I use a unique micro price data to estimate the pass-through from commodity prices to retail prices in several countries. The paper presents and develops a simple methodology to estimate the pass-through from the prices of different commodities into various sectors across several countries. This is the first exercise of this type. As expected, countries respond differently to the different shocks; and sectors respond differently across countries and commodities. A third of all the explained variation is driven by sectoral characteristics, which is a dimension mostly disregarded by the literature.

On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks

In this paper I offer an alternative identification assumption that allows one to test for changing patterns regarding the international propagation of shocks when endogenous variables, omitted variables, and heteroskedasticity are present in the data. Using this methodology, I demonstrate that the propagation mechanisms of 36 stock markets remained relatively stable throughout the last three major international crises which have been associated with 'contagion' (i.e., Mexico 1994, Hong Kong 1997, and Russia 1998). These findings cast considerable doubt upon theories that suggest that the propagation of shocks is crisis contingent, and driven by endogenous liquidity issues, multiple equilibria, and political contagion. Rather, these findings would seem to support theories that identify such matters as trade, learning, and aggregate shocks as the primary transmission mechanisms in this process.

Disinflation and Fiscal Reform: A Neoclassical Perspective

During the last two decades, many Latin American countries engaged in disinflation programs based on both exchange rate management and fiscal reforms. However, in most instances, part of the fiscal reform was delayed or not implemented completely, so the fiscal deficit increased and the program had to be abandoned. The aftermath of these programs is not encouraging, since most of these policies turned out to be failures, lowering reserves and causing higher inflation rates. Given this record, it is worth asking why governments start a disinflation program even though the fiscal equilibrium is not guaranteed. In this paper we show that, if the reform process is uncertain and inflation has welfare costs, the optimal exchange rate policy implies the initiation of a disinflation program at the announcement of the fiscal reform. Additionally, we show that even if there exists a possibility of a balance of payments crisis, it is still optimal to initiate a disinflation program. This means that, in this set up, avoiding the crisis with probability one is suboptimal. Finally, we show that it is optimal to engage in a sequence of stabilization programs until one of them is successful.

In Search of the Black Swan: Analysis of the Statistical Evidence of Electoral Fraud in Venezuela

This study analyzes diverse hypotheses of electronic fraud in the Recall Referendum celebrated in Venezuela on August 15, 2004. We define fraud as the difference between the elector's intent, and the official vote tally. Our null hypothesis is that there was no fraud, and we attempt to search for evidence that will allow us to reject this hypothesis. We find no evidence that fraud was committed by applying numerical maximums to machines in some precincts. Equally, we discard any hypothesis that implies altering some machines and not others, at each electoral precinct, because the variation patterns between machines at each precinct are normal. However, the statistical evidence is compatible with the occurrence of fraud that has affected every machine in a single precinct, but differentially more in some precincts than others. We find that the deviation pattern between precincts, based on the relationship between the signatures collected to request the referendum in November 2003 (the so-called, Reafirmazo), and the YES votes on August 15, is positive and significantly correlated with the deviation pattern in the relationship between exit polls and votes in those same precincts. In other words, those precincts in which, according to the number of signatures, there are an unusually low number of YES votes (i.e., votes to impeach the president), is also where, according to the exit polls, the same thing occurs.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS373 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?

This paper presents an identification strategy that allows us to study both the sectoral effects of monetary policy and the role that monetary policy plays in the transmission of sectoral shocks. We apply our methodology to the case of the U.S. and find some significant differences in the sectorial responses to monetary policy. We also find that monetary policy is a significant source of sectoral transfers. In particular, a shock to Equipment and Software investment, which we naturally identify with the High-tech crises, induces a response by the monetary authority that generates a temporary boom in Residential Investment and Durable Consumption but has almost no effect on the high-tech sector. Finally, we perform an exercise evaluating what the model predicts regarding the automatic and a more aggressive monetary policy response to a shock similar to the one that hit the U.S. in early 2001. We find that the actual drop in interest rates we have observed is in line with the predictions of the model.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks (“crises”) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) – the most important one – shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.Capital flows, emerging countries, volatility, crises, contagion, persistence

Monetary policy and sectoral shocks : did the Federal Reserve react properly to the high-tech crisis?

The authors present an identification strategy that allows them to study the sectoral effects of monetary policy and the role that monetary policy plays in the transmission of sectoral shocks. They apply their methodology to the case of the United States and find some significant differences in the sectoral responses to monetary policy. They also find that monetary policy is a significant source of sectoral transfers. In particular, a shock to equipment and software investment, which one identifies with the high-tech crisis, induces a response by the monetary authority that generates a temporary boom in residential investment and durables consumption but has almost no effect on the high-tech sector. Finally, the authors perform an exercise evaluating the model's predictions about the automatic and more aggressive monetary policy response to a shock similar to the one that hit the United States in early 2001. They find that the actual drop in interest rates is in line with the predictions of the model.Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,ICT Policy and Strategies,Economic Stabilization,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management,Financial Intermediation,ICT Policy and Strategies

Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints

This paper examines the co-movement among stock market prices and exchange rates within a three-country Center-Periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which agents in the Center country face portfolio constraints. In our model, international transmission occurs through the terms of trade, through the common discount factor for cash flows, and, finally, through an additional channel reflecting the tightness of the portfolio constraints. Portfolio constraints are shown to generate endogenous wealth transfers to or from the Periphery countries. These implicit transfers are responsible for creating contagion among the terms of trade of the Periphery countries, as well as their stock market prices. Under a portfolio constraint limiting investment of the Center country in the stock markets of the Periphery, stock prices also exhibit a flight to quality: a negative shock to one of the Periphery countries depresses stock prices throughout the Periphery, while boosting the stock market in the Center.

An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications

The existence of a natural resource curse has been a longstanding theme in the economic literature and in policy discussions. We propose an alternative mechanism and study its policy implications. The mechanism is based on the interaction between two building blocks: specialization in non-tradables and financial market imperfections. We show that if a country has a sufficiently large non-resource tradable sector, relative prices can be stable, even when the resource sector generates significant volatility in the demand for non-tradables. However, when the non-resource tradable sector disappears, the economy becomes much more volatile, because shocks to the demand for non-tradables - possibly associated with shocks to resource income - will not be accommodated by movements in the allocation of labor but instead by expenditure-switching. This requires much higher relative price movements. The presence of bankruptcy costs makes interest rates dependent on relative price volatility. These two effects interact causing the economy to specialize inefficiently away from non-resource tradables: the less it produces of them, the greater the volatility of relative prices, the higher the interest rate the sector faces, causing it to shrink even further until it disappears. At that point, the economy will face an even higher interest rate and a lower level of capital and output in the non-tradable sector. An increase in resource income that leads to specialization causes a large decline in welfare: thus the idea of the curse. Specialization is determined by the expected size and volatility in resource income. The paper justifies stabilization and savings policies as well as policies to make financial markets more efficient. However, we also find some support for more interventionist second-best trade and financial