Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty about financial frictions

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the degree of financial frictions. Changes in the degree of financial frictions are modelled as changes in parameters of a hybrid New-Keynesian model calibrated for the UK, following Bean, Larsen and Nikolov (2002). Uncertainty about the degree of financial frictions is modelled as Markov switching between regimes without and with strong financial frictions. Optimal monetary policy is determined for different scenarios of permanent and temporary regime shifts in financial frictions, as well as for variations in financial frictions over the business cycle. Optimal monetary policy is found to be state-dependent. In each state, optimal monetary policy depends on the transition probabilities between the different regimes. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61, E44financial frictions, monetary policy, uncertainty

Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy rules and impulse responses are presented within a hybrid New-Keynesian model estimated for the euro area by Smets (2003). We find that it may be optimal for policy to respond more aggressively to cost-push shocks and real interest rate shocks in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank’s objective function. Moreover, in the cases where optimal policy is not certainty equivalent, we find that inflation returns slightly more gradually to equilibrium following a shock when the degree of inflation inertia is uncertain. JEL Classification: E52, E58Inflation persistence, monetary policy, uncertainty

Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview

How monetary policy should be set optimally when the structure of the economy exhibits inflation persistence is an important question for policy makers. This paper provides an overview of the implications of inflation persistence for the design of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E52, E58Inflation persistence, optimal monetary policy, uncertainty

Effects of monetary policy announcements on term premia in the euro area during the COVID-19 pandemic

We study the effects of the announcement of the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on ten-year government bond term premia in eleven euro-area countries, while controlling for other ECB statements. We find that the term premia of government bonds in euro area countries with higher sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign CDS spreads, decreased more in response to the announcement of the PEPP. This occurred after these term premia had risen in response to a prior monetary policy press conference statement by the ECB president that the ECB was “not here to close spreads”

Las crisis bancarias y el sistema monetario internacional en la Gran Depresión y en la actualidad

Identificamos las semejanzas y las diferencias en la escala y la naturaleza de las crisis bancarias de 2008-2009 y de la Gran Depresión, y analizamos las diferencias en la respuesta de política a las dos crisis a la luz de los sistemas monetarios internacionales predominantes. Encontramos que la escala de la crisis bancaria, medida por la reducción internacional del endeudamiento de corto plazo y de los depósitos bancarios totales, fue menor en 2008-2009 que en 1931. Sin embargo, la provisión de liquidez del banco central fue mayor en el contexto de tasas de cambio flexibles de 2008-2009 que en 1931, cuando estaba limitada en muchos países por el patrón oro.crisis bancarias, sistema monetario internacional, liquidez, Gran Depresión, banco central