Probabilistic hazard assessment: application to geomagnetic activity

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) provides an appropriate methodology for assessing space weather hazards and their impact on technology. PHA is widely used in geosciences to determine the probability of exceedance of critical thresholds, caused by one or more hazard sources. PHA has proved useful with limited historical data to estimate the likelihood of specific impacts. PHA has also driven the development of empirical and physical models, or ensembles of models, to replace measured data. Here we aim to highlight the PHA method to the space weather community and provide an example of how it could be used. In terms of space weather impact, the critical hazard thresholds might include the Geomagnetically Induced Current in a specific high voltage power transformer neutral, or the local pipe-to-soil potential in a particular metal pipe. We illustrate PHA in the space weather context by applying it to a twelve-year dataset of Earth-directed solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), which we relate to the probability that the global three-hourly geomagnetic activity index Kp exceeds specific thresholds. We call this a “Probabilistic Geomagnetic Hazard Assessment”, or PGHA. This provides a simple but concrete example of the method. We find that the cumulative probability of Kp > 6−, > 7−, > 8− and Kp = 9o is 0.359, 0.227, 0.090, 0.011, respectively, following observation of an Earth-directed CME, summed over all CME launch speeds and solar source locations. According to the historical Kp distribution, this represents an order of magnitude increase in the a priori probability of exceeding these thresholds. For the lower Kp thresholds, the results are somewhat distorted by our exclusion of coronal hole high-speed stream effects. The PHGA also reveals useful probabilistic associations between solar source location and subsequent maximum Kp for operational forecasters

Geoelectric field measurement, modelling and validation during geomagnetic storms in the UK

Significant geoelectric fields are produced by the interaction of rapidly varying magnetic fields with the conductive Earth, particularly during intense geomagnetic activity. Though usually harmless, large or sustained geoelectric fields can damage grounded infrastructure such as high-voltage transformers and pipelines via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs). A key aspect of understanding the effects of space weather on grounded infrastructure is through the spatial and temporal variation of the geoelectric field. Globally, there are few long-term monitoring sites of the geoelectric field, so in 2012 measurements of the horizontal surface field were started at Lerwick, Eskdalemuir and Hartland observatories in the UK. Between 2012 and 2020, the maximum value of the geoelectric field observed was around 1 V/km in Lerwick, 0.5 V/km in Eskdalemuir and 0.1 V/km in Hartland during the March 2015 storm. These long-term observations also allow comparisons with models of the geoelectric field to be made. We use the measurements to compute magnetotelluric impedance transfer functions at each observatory for periods from 20 to 30,000 seconds. These are then used to predict the geoelectric field at the observatory sites during selected storm times that match the recorded fields very well (correlation around 0.9). We also compute geoelectric field values from a thin-sheet model of Britain, accounting for the diverse geological and bathymetric island setting. We find the thin-sheet model captures the peak and phase of the band-passed geoelectric field reasonably well, with linear correlation of around 0.4 in general. From these two modelling approaches, we generate geoelectric field values for historic storms (March 1989 and October 2003) and find the estimates of past peak geoelectric fields of up to 1.75 V/km in Eskdalemuir. However, evidence from high voltage transformer GIC measurements during these storms suggests these estimates are likely to represent an underestimate of the true value

A detailed model of the Irish High Voltage Power Network for simulating GICs

Constructing a power network model for geomagnetically induced current (GIC) calculations requires information on the DC resistances of elements within a network. This information is often not known, and power network models are simplified as a result, with assumptions used for network element resistances. Ireland's relatively small, isolated network presents an opportunity to model a complete power network in detail, using as much real‐world information as possible. A complete model of the Irish 400, 275, 220, and 110 kV network was made for GIC calculations, with detailed information on the number, type, and DC resistances of transformers. The measured grounding resistances at a number of substations were also included in the model, which represents a considerable improvement on previous models of the Irish power network for GIC calculations. Sensitivity tests were performed to show how calculated GIC amplitudes are affected by different aspects of the model. These tests investigated: (1) How the orientation of a uniform electric field affects GICs. (2) The effect of including/omitting lower voltage elements of the power network. (3) How the substation grounding resistances assumptions affected GIC values. It was found that changing the grounding resistance value had a considerable effect on calculated GICs at some substations and no discernible effect at others. Finally, five recent geomagnetic storm events were simulated in the network. It was found that heavy rainfall prior to the 26–28 August 2015 geomagnetic storm event may have had a measurable impact on measured GIC amplitudes at a 400/220 kV transformer ground

A risk assessment framework for the socio-economic impacts of electricity transmission infrastructure failure due to space weather: an application to the United Kingdom

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion

Geomagnetically induced currents during the 07-08 September 2017 disturbed period: a global perspective

Measurements from six longitudinally separated magnetic observatories, all located close to the 53⁰ mid-latitude contour, are analysed. We focus on the large geomagnetic 16 disturbance that occurred during 7 and 8 September 2017. Combined with available geomagnetically induced current (GIC) data from two substations, each located near to a 18 magnetic observatory, we investigate the magnetospheric drivers of the largest events. We analyse solar wind parameters combined with auroral electrojet indices to investigate the driving mechanisms. Six magnetic field disturbance events were observed at mid-latitudes with dH/dt >60 nT/min. Co-located GIC measurements identified transformer currents >15 A during three of the events. The initial event was caused by a solar wind pressure pulse causing largest effects on the dayside, consistent with the rapid compression of the dayside geomagnetic field. Four of the events were caused by substorms. Variations in the Magnetic Local Time of the maximum effect of each substorm-driven event were apparent with magnetic midnight, morning-side, and dusk-side events all occurring. The six events 27 occurred over a period of almost 24 hours, during which the solar wind remained elevated at >700 km s -1, indicating an extended time scale for potential GIC problems in electrical power networks following a sudden storm commencement. This work demonstrates the challenge of understanding the causes of ground-level magnetic field changes (and hence GIC magnitudes) for the global power industry. It also demonstrates the importance of 32 magnetic local time and differing inner magnetospheric processes when considering the global hazard posed by GIC to power grids

Tidal Evolution of Close Binary Asteroid Systems

We provide a generalized discussion of tidal evolution to arbitrary order in the expansion of the gravitational potential between two spherical bodies of any mass ratio. To accurately reproduce the tidal evolution of a system at separations less than five times the radius of the larger primary component, the tidal potential due to the presence of a smaller secondary component is expanded in terms of Legendre polynomials to arbitrary order rather than truncated at leading order as is typically done in studies of well-separated system like the Earth and Moon. The equations of tidal evolution including tidal torques, the changes in spin rates of the components, and the change in semimajor axis (orbital separation) are then derived for binary asteroid systems with circular and equatorial mutual orbits. Accounting for higher-order terms in the tidal potential serves to speed up the tidal evolution of the system leading to underestimates in the time rates of change of the spin rates, semimajor axis, and mean motion in the mutual orbit if such corrections are ignored. Special attention is given to the effect of close orbits on the calculation of material properties of the components, in terms of the rigidity and tidal dissipation function, based on the tidal evolution of the system. It is found that accurate determinations of the physical parameters of the system, e.g., densities, sizes, and current separation, are typically more important than accounting for higher-order terms in the potential when calculating material properties. In the scope of the long-term tidal evolution of the semimajor axis and the component spin rates, correcting for close orbits is a small effect, but for an instantaneous rate of change in spin rate, semimajor axis, or mean motion, the close-orbit correction can be on the order of tens of percent.Comment: 40 pages, 2 tables, 8 figure

Macroinvertebrates inhabiting the tank leaf terrestrial and epiphyte bromeliads at Reserva Adolpho Ducke, Manaus, Amazonas

The aim of this work was to investigate the diversity of macroinvertebrates and also verify if the abundance and diversity of Diptera were influenced by the abiotic factors. The samples were collected from the epiphytic and terrestrial bromeliads G. brasiliensis (1 and 3m) in wet and dry seasons at Reserva Adolpho Ducke analyzed total of 144 samples were analyzed from a total of 15,238 individuals collected. These conatined 14,097 insects and, among these, 8,258 were immature Diptera, represented by eight most abundant families: Chironomidae, Ceratopogonidae and Culicidae. The relationship of Diptera diversity was influenced by the seasons and stratifications (p= 0.01); the abundance was influenced by the volume of water (p= 0.02) and the relationship between the season and volume of water in the terrestrial bromeliads was significant (p= 0.01). This study represented the first contribution to knowledge of community of macroinvertebrates associated to bromeliads G. brasiliensis in Central Amazon

Instrumentation and Measurement Strategy for the NOAA SENEX Aircraft Campaign as Part of the Southeast Atmosphere Study 2013

Natural emissions of ozone-and-aerosol-precursor gases such as isoprene and monoterpenes are high in the southeast of the US. In addition, anthropogenic emissions are significant in the Southeast US and summertime photochemistry is rapid. The NOAA-led SENEX (Southeast Nexus) aircraft campaign was one of the major components of the Southeast Atmosphere Study (SAS) and was focused on studying the interactions between biogenic and anthropogenic emissions to form secondary pollutants. During SENEX, the NOAA WP-3D aircraft conducted 20 research flights between 27 May and 10 July 2013 based out of Smyrna, TN. Here we describe the experimental approach, the science goals and early results of the NOAA SENEX campaign. The aircraft, its capabilities and standard measurements are described. The instrument payload is summarized including detection limits, accuracy, precision and time resolutions for all gas-and-aerosol phase instruments. The inter-comparisons of compounds measured with multiple instruments on the NOAA WP-3D are presented and were all within the stated uncertainties, except two of the three NO2 measurements. The SENEX flights included day- and nighttime flights in the Southeast as well as flights over areas with intense shale gas extraction (Marcellus, Fayetteville and Haynesville shale). We present one example flight on 16 June 2013, which was a daytime flight over the Atlanta region, where several crosswind transects of plumes from the city and nearby point sources, such as power plants, paper mills and landfills, were flown. The area around Atlanta has large biogenic isoprene emissions, which provided an excellent case for studying the interactions between biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. In this example flight, chemistry in and outside the Atlanta plumes was observed for several hours after emission. The analysis of this flight showcases the strategies implemented to answer some of the main SENEX science questions