Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001-2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares >X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares >X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis

Electrophoresis has long been recognized as an effective analytic technique for the separation of proteins and other charged species, however attempts at scaling up to accommodate commercial volumes have met with limited success. In this report we describe a novel electrophoretic separation technique - Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis (BOCE). Numerical simulations indicate that the technique has the potential for preparative scale throughputs with high resolution, while simultaneously avoiding many problems common to conventional electrophoresis. The technique utilizes the interaction of an oscillatory electric field and a transverse oscillatory shear flow to create an active binary filter for the separation of charged protein species. An oscillatory electric field is applied across the narrow gap of a rectangular channel inducing a periodic motion of charged protein species. The amplitude of this motion depends on the dimensionless electrophoretic mobility, alpha = E(sub o)mu/(omega)d, where E(sub o) is the amplitude of the electric field oscillations, mu is the dimensional mobility, omega is the angular frequency of oscillation and d is the channel gap width. An oscillatory shear flow is induced along the length of the channel resulting in the separation of species with different mobilities. We present a model that predicts the oscillatory behavior of charged species and allows estimation of both the magnitude of the induced convective velocity and the effective diffusivity as a function of a in infinitely long channels. Numerical results indicate that in addition to the mobility dependence, the steady state behavior of solute species may be strongly affected by oscillating fluid into and out of the active electric field region at the ends of the cell. The effect is most pronounced using time dependent shear flows of the same frequency (cos((omega)t)) flow mode) as the electric field oscillations. Under such conditions, experiments indicate that solute is drawn into the cell from reservoirs at both ends of the cell leading to a large mass build up. As a consequence, any initially induced mass flux will vanish after short times. This effect was not captured by the infinite channel model and hence numerical and experimental results deviated significantly. The revised model including finite cell lengths and reservoir volumes allowed quantitative predictions of the time history of the concentration profile throughout the system. This latter model accurately describes the fluxes observed for both oscillatory flow modes in experiments using single protein species. Based on the results obtained from research funded under NASA grant NAG-8-1080.S, we conclude that binary separations are not possible using purely oscillatory flow modes because of end effects associated with the cos((omega)t) mode. Our research shows, however, that a combination of cos(2(omega)t) and steady flow should lead to efficient separation free of end effects. This possibility is currently under investigation

Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001 – 2010)

The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5% duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488)

The Thermal Properties of Solar Flares Over Three Solar Cycles Using GOES X-ray Observations

Solar flare X-ray emission results from rapidly increasing temperatures and emission measures in flaring active region loops. To date, observations from the X-Ray Sensor (XRS) onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) have been used to derive these properties, but have been limited by a number of factors, including the lack of a consistent background subtraction method capable of being automatically applied to large numbers of flares. In this paper, we describe an automated temperature and emission measure-based background subtraction method (TEBBS), which builds on the methods of Bornmann (1990). Our algorithm ensures that the derived temperature is always greater than the instrumental limit and the pre-flare background temperature, and that the temperature and emission measure are increasing during the flare rise phase. Additionally, TEBBS utilizes the improved estimates of GOES temperatures and emission measures from White et al. (2005). TEBBS was successfully applied to over 50,000 solar flares occurring over nearly three solar cycles (1980-2007), and used to create an extensive catalog of the solar flare thermal properties. We confirm that the peak emission measure and total radiative losses scale with background subtracted GOES X-ray flux as power-laws, while the peak temperature scales logarithmically. As expected, the peak emission measure shows an increasing trend with peak temperature, although the total radiative losses do not. While these results are comparable to previous studies, we find that flares of a given GOES class have lower peak temperatures and higher peak emission measures than previously reported. The resulting TEBBS database of thermal flare plasma properties is publicly available on Solar Monitor (www.solarmonitor.org/TEBBS/) and will be available on Heliophysics Integrated Observatory (www.helio-vo.eu)

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: II. Solutions of the Quasi-Static Loop Model

In the present work we undertake a study of the quasi-static loop model and the observational consequences of the various solutions found. We obtain the most general solutions consistent with certain initial conditions. Great care is exercised in choosing these conditions to be physically plausible (motivated by observations). We show that the assumptions of previous quasi-static loop models, such as the models of Rosner, Tucker and Vaiana (1978) and Veseckey, Antiochos and Underwood (1979), are not necessarily valid for small loops at transition region temperatures. We find three general classes of solutions for the quasi-static loop model, which we denote, radiation dominated loops, conduction dominated loops and classical loops. These solutions are then compared with observations. Departures from the classical scaling law of RTV are found for the solutions obtained. It is shown that loops of the type that we model here can make a significant contribution to lower transition region emission via thermal conduction from the upper transition region.Comment: 30 pages, 3 figures, Submitted to ApJ, Microsoft Word File 6.0/9

Supernova Remnants in the Fossil Starburst in M82

We report the discovery of ten compact H-alpha-bright sources in the post-starburst region northeast of the center of M82, ``M82 B.'' These objects have H alpha luminosities and sizes consistent with Type II supernova remnants (SNRs). They fall on the same H alpha surface brightness-diameter (Sigma-D) relation defined by SNRs in other nearby star-forming galaxies, with the M82 candidates lying preferentially at the small diameter end. These are the first candidates for optically-visible SNRs in M82 outside the heavily obscured central starburst within ~250 pc from the galactic center. If these sources are SNRs, they set an upper limit to the end of the starburst in region ``B2,'' about 500 pc from the galaxy's core, of ~50 Myr. Region ``B1,'' about 1000 pc from the core, lacks good SNR candidates and is evidently somewhat older. This suggests star formation in the galaxy has propagated inward toward the present-day intense starburst core.Comment: Re-submitted to AJ, referee's comments taken into account, 15 pages LaTeX preprint style, 4 postscript figures; full-resolution figures available from http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~rd7a/snrs/ Changes: minor textual changes and orientation/axes of Fig.

Hubble Space Telescope Imaging of the Circumstellar Nebulosity of T Tauri

Short-exposure Planetary Camera images of T Tauri have been obtained using broadband filters spanning the wavelength range 0.55-0.80 μm. The optically visible star lies very close to an arc of reflection nebulosity. The arc's northern arm extends approximately 5" from the star, while its southwestern arm appears brighter and extends only 2". The arc shows an approximate symmetry along an axis toward the west-northwest, the direction of Hind's Nebula and the blueshifted molecular outflow. The morphology of the reflected light is similar to models of scattered light within an illuminated, axisymmetric outflow cavity in a circumbinary envelope, viewed ≈ 45° from the outflow axis. However, our model images do not successfully account for the amount of limb brightening that is seen. No optical counterpart to the infrared companion is seen to a limiting magnitude of V = 19.6, which suggests A_V > 7 mag toward this source. There is no evidence for an optical tertiary, to a limiting ΔV = 5.1 mag fainter than the primary, at the position where such an object has been previously reported

Stellar Populations at the Center of IC 1613

We have observed the center of the Local Group dwarf irregular galaxy IC 1613 with WFPC2 aboard the Hubble Space Telescope in the F439W, F555W, and F814W filters. We find a dominant old stellar population (aged ~7 Gyr), identifiable by the strong red giant branch (RGB) and red clump populations. From the (V-I) color of the RGB, we estimate a mean metallicity of the intermediate-age stellar population [Fe/H] = -1.38 +/- 0.31. We confirm a distance of 715 +/- 40 kpc using the I-magnitude of the RGB tip. The main-sequence luminosity function down to I ~25 provides evidence for a roughly constant SFR of approximately 0.00035 solar masses per year across the WFPC2 field of view (0.22 square kpc) during the past 250-350 Myr. Structure in the blue loop luminosity function implies that the SFR was ~50% higher 400-900 Myr ago than today. The mean heavy element abundance of these young stars is 1/10th solar. The best explanation for a red spur on the main-sequence at I = 24.7 is the blue horizontal branch component of a very old stellar population at the center of IC 1613. We have also imaged a broader area of IC 1613 using the 3.5-meter WIYN telescope under excellent seeing conditions. The AGB-star luminosity function is consistent with a period of continuous star formation over at least the age range 2-10 Gyr. We present an approximate age-metallicity relation for IC 1613, which appears similar to that of the Small Magellanic Cloud. We compare the Hess diagram of IC 1613 to similar data for three other Local Group dwarf galaxies, and find that it most closely resembles the nearby, transition-type dwarf galaxy Pegasus (DDO 216).Comment: To appear in the September 1999 Astronomical Journal. LaTeX, uses AASTeX v4.0, emulateapj style file, 19 pages, 12 postscript figures, 2 tables. 5 of the figures available separately via the WW