Congressional Vote Options

Among political practitioners, there is conventional wisdom about the outcomes of critical and salient legislative votes. 'This vote,' we hear, ' will either win by a little or lose by a lot.' Real-world examples suggest coalition leaders purchase 'hip-pocket' votes and "if you need me" pledges, which are converted to favorable votes when they will yield a victory. When the outcome is uncertain, such a process -- securing commitments in advance and calling them in if necessary -- is advantageous relative to traditional vote buying. Excess votes are not bought, nor are votes purchased for a losing effort. In effect, the leader secures options on votes. Given uncertainty, buying vote options yields two outcomes in conceivably winnable situations, one a narrow victory, the other a substantial loss. Such a distribution of outcomes is not explicable in a traditional vote-buying framework. We look for evidence of this pattern -- the tracings of 'if you need me pledges' -- by examining all Congressional Quarterly key votes from 1975 through 1998. On these critical and salient votes, narrow victories are much more frequent than narrow losses. Furthermore, when leaders lose key votes, as predicted, they lose by bigger margins than when they win. Finally, we discuss leadership strategies for keeping 'narrow wins' from unraveling into 'big losses.'

Importance Tempering

Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density $\pi(\theta)$. Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable $k$ taking values in a finite subset of $[0,1]$ and indexing a set of tempered distributions, say $\pi_k(\theta) \propto \pi(\theta)^k$. In this case, small values of $k$ encourage better mixing, but samples from $\pi$ are only obtained when the joint chain for $(\theta,k)$ reaches $k=1$. However, the entire chain can be used to estimate expectations under $\pi$ of functions of interest, provided that importance sampling (IS) weights are calculated. Unfortunately this method, which we call importance tempering (IT), can disappoint. This is partly because the most immediately obvious implementation is na\"ive and can lead to high variance estimators. We derive a new optimal method for combining multiple IS estimators and prove that the resulting estimator has a highly desirable property related to the notion of effective sample size. We briefly report on the success of the optimal combination in two modelling scenarios requiring reversible-jump MCMC, where the na\"ive approach fails.Comment: 16 pages, 2 tables, significantly shortened from version 4 in response to referee comments, to appear in Statistics and Computin

Distinguishing low frequency mutations from RT-PCR and sequence errors in viral deep sequencing data

There is a high prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with left bundle branch block (LBBB); however there are many other causes for this electrocardiographic abnormality. Non-invasive assessment of these patients remains difficult, and all commonly used modalities exhibit several drawbacks. This often leads to these patients undergoing invasive coronary angiography which may not have been necessary. In this review, we examine the uses and limitations of commonly performed non-invasive tests for diagnosis of CAD in patients with LBBB

Investigating intra-host and intra-herd sequence diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Due to the poor-fidelity of the enzymes involved in RNA genome replication, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus samples comprise of unique polymorphic populations. In this study, deep sequencing was utilised to characterise the diversity of FMD virus (FMDV) populations in 6 infected cattle present on a single farm during the series of outbreaks in the UK in 2007. A novel RT–PCR method was developed to amplify a 7.6 kb nucleotide fragment encompassing the polyprotein coding region of the FMDV genome. Illumina sequencing of each sample identified the fine polymorphic structures at each nucleotide position, from consensus level changes to variants present at a 0.24% frequency. These data were used to investigate population dynamics of FMDV at both herd and host levels, evaluate the impact of host on the viral swarm structure and to identify transmission links with viruses recovered from other farms in the same series of outbreaks. In 7 samples, from 6 different animals, a total of 5 consensus level variants were identified, in addition to 104 sub-consensus variants of which 22 were shared between 2 or more animals. Further analysis revealed differences in swarm structures from samples derived from the same animal suggesting the presence of distinct viral populations evolving independently at different lesion sites within the same infected animal

Controlling the crystal polymorph by exploiting the time dependence of nucleation rates

Most substances can crystallise into two or more different crystal lattices, called polymorphs. Despite this, there are no systems in which we can quantitatively predict the probability of one competing polymorph forming, instead of the other. We address this problem using large scale (hundreds of events) studies of the competing nucleation of the alpha and gamma polymorphs of glycine. In situ Raman spectroscopy is used to identify the polymorph of each crystal. We find that the nucleation kinetics of the two polymorphs is very different. Nucleation of the alpha polymorph starts off slowly but accelerates, while nucleation of the gamma polymorph starts off fast but then slows. We exploit this difference to increase the purity with which we obtain the gamma polymorph by a factor of ten. The statistics of the nucleation of crystals is analogous to that of human mortality, and using a result from medical statistics we show that conventional nucleation data can say nothing about what, if any, are the correlations between competing nucleation processes. Thus we can show that, with data of our form, it is impossible to disentangle the competing nucleation processes. We also find that the growth rate and the shape of a crystal depends on when it nucleated. This is new evidence that nucleation and growth are linked.Comment: 8 pages, plus 17 pages of supplementary materia

Impediments to Timely Delivery of New Products at an Industrial Products Firm

To identify and discuss sources of delay in the new product development process at an industrial products firm, data were collected during 11 bi-weekly project review meetings at which 42 different projects were discussed. The highest priority projects were designs for a new venture into European markets. It was suggested that manager selection, vendor monitoring, attention to physical engineering design, and bureaucratic checkpoints contribute more to project delays than do most other internal problems such as resource bottlenecks and miscommunications. A challenging trade-off existed between a well-established sign-off procedure and a less-structured but potentially more timely product development policy. In the ordinary least squares results, the largest proportion of sum of squares was attributable to the manager variable

Design approaches and materials processes for ultrahigh efficiency lattice mismatched multi-junction solar cells

In this study, we report synthesis of large area (>2cm^2), crack-free GaAs and GaInP double heterostructures grown in a multi-junction solar cell-like structure by MOCVD. Initial solar cell data are also reported for GaInP top cells. These samples were grown on Ge/Si templates fabricated using wafer bonding and ion implantation induced layer transfer techniques. The double heterostructures exhibit radiative emission with uniform intensity and wavelength in regions not containing interfacial bubble defects. The minority carrier lifetime of ~1ns was estimated from photoluminescence decay measurements in both double heterostructures. We also report on the structural characteristics of heterostructures, determined via atomic force microscopy and transmission electron microscopy, and correlate these characteristics to the spatial variation of the minority carrier lifetime

Atmospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) abundances from ground-based ultraviolet solar spectra: an improved retrieval method

The Fourier Transform Ultraviolet Spectrometer (FTUVS) instrument has recorded a long-term data record of the atmospheric column abundance of the hydroxyl radical (OH) using the technique of high resolution solar absorption spectroscopy. We report new efforts in improving the precision of the OH measurements in order to better model the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variability of odd hydrogen (HOx) chemistry in the stratosphere, which, in turn, will improve our understanding of ozone chemistry and its long-term changes. Until the present, the retrieval method has used a single strong OH absorption line P1(1) in the near-ultraviolet at 32,341 cm−1. We describe a new method that uses an average based on spectral fits to multiple lines weighted by line strength and fitting precision. We have also made a number of improvements in the ability to fit a model to the spectral feature, which substantially reduces the scatter in the measurements of OH abundances