Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another look at the AUSFTA

We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to revisit the dynamic benefits of the Australia-USA Free Trade Agreement and, in particular, to evaluate the insurance value of this agreement in the face of regional and global trade wars. The insurance benefits are quantified by comparing the status quo against alternative scenarios where some or all regions raise tariffs by 10 percent, both permanently and temporarily. These insurance gains are found to be as much as four times larger than the traditional status quo efficiency gains.Trade policy; Computable General Equilibrium; Human Capital; Dynamics

The Dynamic Effects of Skilled Labour Targeting in Immigration Programs

We consider the impact of the recent trend in immigration policies towards selecting migrants on the basis of skills. The analysis uses an inter-temporal general equilibrium model with endogenous skill formation. The model is calibrated to a steady state benchmark that represents Australia in 2000-2001. We then consider the impact of the increase in skilled migrants of approximately 20 thousand per year, which corresponds to the increase in flows of migrant Professionals in Australia since 2000. We find that this generates substantial crowding out of the higher Education sector in Australia. Moreover we show that, when this shock is anticipated as a permanent policy change, there is very little net increase in the stock of skilled labour due to falling student enrollments of 12%. Paradoxically, in this case, the decline in students increases the number of unskilled workers in the economy such that the ratio skilled to unskilled workers in the economy actually falls and the skill premium increases.Immigration; Human Capital; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Dynamic Adjustments to Terms of Trade Shocks: The USA Productivity Boom and Australia

How has the USA’s “new economy” productivity boom affected Australia? We consider this question using a dynamic multi-sector growth model of the Australian and USA economies. We find that productivity growth in the USA durables sector generates small but important gains to Australia. We find that the transmission of growth is generated through increased export demand for Agriculture. Consequently we find that the USA’s productivity growth tends to favour Australia’s traditional export sectors. Likewise it increases the relative demand for less skilled labour in Australia and reduces the demand for skilled labour and higher education.Terms of Trade; Productivity; Economic Growth; Human Capital; Computable General Equilibrium Models

The toxic sheep collar for control of sheep-killing coyotes: A progress report

The toxic sheep collar is the most selective method known for killing coyotes that prey on domestic sheep. The concept dates back to the early 1900's and has been studied at the Denver Wildlife Research Center (DWRC) since 1974. Field tests with sodium cyanide (NaCN) in 1975 were unsuccessful due to repellent properties of the toxicant and to the apparent reluctance of coyotes to attack tethered lambs wearing bulky collars. Coyotes attacked one or more tethered, collared lambs in 7 of the 19 test pastures. In all, 14 collared lambs were attacked. Eight of the collars were punctured but no dead coyotes were recovered. A smaller collar containing diphacinone was field tested in 1976. The diphacinone-filled collars were readily accepted by coyotes and lethal to them, but the slow action (5-16 days between dosing and death) of diphacinone made it difficult to assess the effectiveness of these collars under field conditions. Target flocks containing 1 to 12 collared lambs plus uncollared ewes were placed in 15 fenced pastures from which the larger ranch flocks had been removed after repeated coyote predation. One or more collared lambs were attacked in 11 of the 15 tests. An unknown number of coyotes were killed, and in most tests the subsequent incidence of predation was lower than that before the test. Captive coyotes continued to kill sheep for 4 or 5 days after they received a lethal dose of diphacinone; therefore a faster-acting toxicant is needed. This research has shown that problem coyotes can be killed with toxic collars, but further studies are needed to determine the feasibility of this approach compared with traditional means of control. In most tests to date the frequency of coyote predation has been too low and too irregular to permit effective use of the collar; target flocks were in the field for an average of 10 days before being attacked. The known disadvantages of the method include the need to sacrifice live lambs, the human hazards associated with the use of toxicants under field conditions, and the costs of managing target flocks and other sheep in the problem areas

Computations involving differential operators and their actions on functions

The algorithms derived by Grossmann and Larson (1989) are further developed for rewriting expressions involving differential operators. The differential operators involved arise in the local analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. These algorithms are extended in two different directions: the algorithms are generalized so that they apply to differential operators on groups and the data structures and algorithms are developed to compute symbolically the action of differential operators on functions. Both of these generalizations are needed for applications

Reactive control and reasoning assistance for scientific laboratory instruments

Scientific laboratory instruments that are involved in chemical or physical sample identification frequently require substantial human preparation, attention, and interactive control during their operation. Successful real-time analysis of incoming data that supports such interactive control requires: (1) a clear recognition of variance of the data from expected results; and (2) rapid diagnosis of possible alternative hypotheses which might explain the variance. Such analysis then aids in decisions about modifying the experiment protocol, as well as being a goal itself. This paper reports on a collaborative project at the NASA Ames Research Center between artificial intelligence researchers and planetary microbial ecologists. Our team is currently engaged in developing software that autonomously controls science laboratory instruments and that provides data analysis of the real-time data in support of dynamic refinement of the experiment control. the first two instruments to which this technology has been applied are a differential thermal analyzer (DTA) and a gas chromatograph (GC). coupled together, they form a new geochemicstry and microbial analysis tool that is capable of rapid identification of the organiz and mineralogical constituents in soils. The thermal decomposition of the minerals and organics, and the attendance release of evolved gases, provides data about the structural and molecular chemistry of the soil samples

The Stink Bugs (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) of Washington State

Froeschner (1988) recorded 23 species of stink bugs (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) from Washington State. Based on material primarily housed in the M. T. James Entomological Collection at Washington State University, the number of species is increased to 51. Three species recorded by Froeschner (1988) were not found in our collections: Apateticus crocatus (Uhler), Chlorochroa rossiana Buxton and Thomas, and Tepa rugulosa (Say). Species recorded from Washington State for the first time are: Apoecilus bracteatus (Fitch), Perillus bioculatus (Fabricius), Podisus maculiventris (Say), P. pallens (Stål), P. placidus Uhler, P. serieventris Uhler, Zicrona caerulea (Linnaeus), Halyomorpha halys (Stål), Brochymena quadripustulata (Fabricius), B. sulcata Van Duzee, Acrosternum hilare (Say), Aelia americana Dallas, Banasa euchlora Stål, B. tumidifrons Thomas and Yonke, Chlorochroa congrua Uhler, Coenus delius (Say), Cosmopepla uhleri Montandon, Dendrocoris pini Montandon, Euschistus servus (Say), E. tristigmus (Say), E. variolarius (Palisot), Holcostethus limbolarius (Say), Neottiglossa sulcifrons Stål, N. undata (Say), Prionosoma podopioides (Uhler), Tepa yerma (Rolston), Trichopepla grossa (Van Duzee), and Amaurochrous vanduzeei Barber and Sailer