Uncharted territory - environment and population beyond six billion

When historians in the far distant future look back upon the tumultuous twentieth century, they will likely judge the most outstanding feature to be the extraordinary increase in human numbers that has occurred during this relatively short time period. It took the entire history of humanity – tens of thousands of years – for the world’s population to reach one billion, which is now estimated to have occurred around 1804. It was more than a century later that the second billion was reached. But it took only 12 years – from 1987 to 1999 --. for the most recent billion, the sixth, to be added. The world has never seen anything like the steep population growth of the twentieth century, with most of it concentrated during the last fifty years.

Contrasting approaches: the ozone layer, climate change, and resolving the Kyoto dilemma

In December 1997, representatives of 160 governments agreed in Kyoto on a protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was hoped that the 'Kyoto Protocol' would be a major step forward to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases. Before long, however, doubts emerged on whether the treaty was implementable. Now, nearly two years later, only 19 small nations have ratified the treaty. None were significant emitters of greenhouse gases. A decade earlier, 24 countries had signed the 'Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer'. This treaty was soon ratified by all of the significant producer and consumer nations, and came into force within only 15 months, has now been ratified by 170 countries, and has entered the annals of diplomacy as a landmark of international cooperation. The unexpected success of the 'Montreal Protocol' was viewed as an encouraging sign that the world would be able to cooperate in addressing such other environmental threats as climate change and diminishing biological diversity. However, negotiations over climate change, from their very inception in 1991, have been marked by persistent disarray on the necessity and feasibility of strong early measures to remodel the world's energy structure. Proponents of decisive action became frustrated by the continuing hesitancy on the diplomatic front - a lack of zeal that was manifested, ironically, by many of the same nations that have been leaders on ozone and other environmental issues, notably Australia, Canada and the United States. (HH)Das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' zur Klimarahmenkonvention wurde nach seiner Verabschiedung im Dezember 1997 von vielen als Meilenstein auf dem Weg zu einer effektiven, international koordinierten Klimapolitik verstanden. Inzwischen mehren sich die Stimmen, daß dieses Protokoll nicht implementiert werden könnte - was dann? Bisher (Stand: Dezember 1999) haben erst 19 Staaten das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' ratifiziert, darunter nicht einer der Großemittenten von Treibhausgasen. Das 'Montrealer Protokoll' zum Schutz der Ozonschicht war dagegen sehr erfolgreich, es wurde in kürzester Zeit ratifiziert. In dieser Analyse werden die Umsetzungsbedingungen dieser beiden Verträge in einen Zusammenhang gestellt und Folgerungen daraus gezogen. Wie wäre das 'Kyoto-Protokoll' noch zu retten - und was wären die Alternativen, wenn dies nicht gelingt? (HH

Uncharted territory - environment and population beyond six billion

"That human populations can exert strains upon their natural surrounding is nothing new. However, from the dawn of history until about thirty years ago, the impacts of human activities were primarily localized. Early regional civilizations – Mesopotamia in the Near East, Mohenjo Daro in Southwest Asia, the Mayans of Central America, possibly the Anasazi in the southwest of what is now the United States – collapsed due to a likely combination of overpopulation and scarcity or depletion of arable land and water supply. In some places, archaeologists have found evidence of adverse environmental effects caused by deforestation and by gradual salinization of irrigated land. The final blow may have been a regional climate change: a succession of unusual dry years, probably ascribed by local spiritual leaders to angry or capricious gods. Many centuries before the Aswan High Dam, Herodotus wrote of salinization in the Nile Delta. Much later, rapid industrialization in Europe and North America was accompanied by severe local pollution of air and water." (excerpt)"Im Verlaufe dieses Jahrhunderts wird sich die Weltbevölkerung irgendwo in der Größenordnung zwischen acht und zwölf Milliarden Menschen einpendeln. Viele Analytiker sehen angesichts dieser Dynamik die Tragfähigkeit des ökologischen Systems Erde überschritten. Die Ansprüche an die Waldbestände, die Wasservorräte, das Klimasystem sind jedenfalls enorm, wie in diesem Beitrag im Detail festgestellt wird. Ob es jedoch zur erfolgreichen Umsetzung der auf der Bevölkerungskonferenz von 1994 in Kairo beschlossenen Maßnahmen und Ziele (Konzept der reproductive health) kommen wird, ist trotz dieser bedrohlichen Trends fraglich. Der Autor geht daher der Frage nach, unter welchen Bedingungen die Kairo-Ziele trotz aller gegenteiligen Evidenz doch noch realisiert werden könnten." (Autorenreferat

Das fragwürdige Kyoto-Klimaprotokoll: Unbeachtete Lehren aus der Ozongeschichte

Das im Dezember 1997 in Kyoto beschlossene Klimaprotokoll ist gleichzeitig zu schwach und zu stark: Zu schwach, weil die Emissionsreduktionspflichten der Industrieländer viel zu gering sind, um eine Auswirkung auf das langfristige Problem der Klimaveränderung zu haben, und weil die Entwicklungsländer, deren Emissionen in absehbarer Zukunft die der Industrieländer übersteigen werden, gar keine Verpflichtungen übernommen haben; zu stark, weil die Ziele in der kurzen Frist (2008 ist gerade mal 10 Jahre hin) von vielen Industrieländern wahrscheinlich nicht umgesetzt werden können. Die allgemeinen und willkürlichen targets and timetables des Protokolls stehen in einem Mißverhältnis zu den wissenschaftlichen wie zu den wirtschaftlichen Realitäten. Auf Basis der Erfahrungen mit dem erfolgreichen Montrealer Protokol zum Schutz der Ozonschicht wird in diesem Paper daher empfohlen, in bezug auf das Klimaproblem eine Doppelstrategie zu verfolgen: (1) Im Mittelpunkt der internationalen Klimapolitik sollten sektorale Maßnahmen (z.B. im Transportwesen) stehen, um die Energieeffizienz rasch zu erhöhen und um Erfahrung zu sammeln, wie der Verzicht auf fossile Energien am besten gefördert werden kann. (2) Gleichzeitig sollte eine konzertierte, umfassende internationale Strategie eingeleitet werden, mit dem Ziel, die Entwicklung und Kommerzialisierung neuer Energietechnologien zu beschleunigen, die für die notwendige massive Reduzierung von CO2-Emissionen während der kommenden Jahrzehnte unentbehrlich sind. Ohne eine Technologie- Revolution kann eine Energie-Revolution nicht gelingen. --

Contrasting approaches: the ozone layer, climate change, and resolving the Kyoto dilemma

In December 1997, after days and nights of bargaining that culminated two years of hard negotiations, representatives of 160 governments wearily agreed in Kyoto, Japan, on a protocol to supplement the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was hoped that this “Kyoto Protocol” would represent a major step forward by the international community to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases that could alter future climate. Before long, however, doubts emerged on whether the treaty was implementable, and even whether enough governments would ratify to allow its entry into force as international law. Nearly two years later (November 1999), a mere 16 nations – mostly small island states --had ratified. None were significant emitters of greenhouse gases.

Building blocks: a strategy for near-term action within the new global climate framework

The Paris Agreement cemented a new framework for global climate policy based on the voluntary and non-legally binding emission reduction actions by both developed and developing countries. The building blocks strategy for climate action discussed in this Special Issue is well adapted to and strongly complements this new structure. Building blocks focus on multiple transnational mechanisms for mobilizing a wide range of both public and private actors to take actions that reduce emissions by capturing incentives other than climate mitigation as such. The initial commitments by countries under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to meet the level of action required to stabilize the global climate system at a safe level. As such, new voluntary action by public and private actors will be required. The building blocks strategy, and the examples presented in this Special Issue, offers answers to the question of how to generate and design smaller-scale initiatives