State Space Methods in gretl

gretl is a general-purpose econometric package, whose most important characteristic is being free software. This ensures that its source code is freely available under the general public license (GPL) and, like most GPL software, that it can be used free of charge. As of version 1.8.1 (released in May 2009), it offers a mechanism for handling linear state space models in a reasonably general and efficient way. This article illustrates its main features with two examples.

Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Starting from the work by Campbell and Shiller (1987), empirical analysis of interest rates has been conducted in the framework of cointegration. However, parts of this approach have been questioned recently, as the adjustment mechanism may not follow a simple linear rule; another line of criticism points out that stationarity of the spreads is difficult to maintain empirically. In this paper, we analyse data on US bond yields by means of an augmented VAR specification which approximates a generic nonlinear adjustment model. We argue that nonlinearity captures macro information via the shape of the yield curve and thus provides an alternative explanation for some findings recently appeared in the literature. Moreover, we show how conditional heteroskedasticity can be taken into account via GARCH specifications for the conditional variance, either univariate and multivariate.interest rates, cointegration, nonlinear adjustment, conditional heteroskedasticity

State Space Methods in gretl

gretl is a general-purpose econometric package, whose most important characteristic is being free software. This ensures that its source code is freely available under the general public license (GPL) and, like most GPL software, that it can be used free of charge. As of version 1.8.1 (released in May 2009), it offers a mechanism for handling linear state space models in a reasonably general and efficient way. This article illustrates its main features with two examples

Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs

In this paper, we investigate the small-sample performance of LR tests on long-run coefficients in the I(2) model; we focus on a comparison between I(2) and near-I(2) data, i.e. I(1) data with a second root very close to unity, and report the results of some Monte Carlo experiments. With near-I(2) data, the finite-sample properties of the tests are (i) similar to those found with genuine I(2) data, (ii) systematically superior to those of the analogous tests constructed in the I(1) model, even if the latter is, in principle, correctly specified and the former is not. Therefore, there seems to be strong support to the idea that, in practice, modelling near-I(2) data using the I(2) model may be a good idea, despite the inherent misspecification

Banks' inefficiency and economic growth: a micro-macro approach

This paper offers a methodological contribution to empirical analysis of the relationships between banking and economic growth by proposing the microeconomic efficiency of banks as a new proxy for the state of development of the banking system. This measure is partly able to overcome the problem of causality and to capture the allocative function of banks.This methodology is then applied to the banking system and economic growth in the Italian regions, using a dynamic panel approach. The econometric results show the existence of an independent effect exerted by banking efficiency on real growth and the importance of the allocative function of banks.Bank efficiency; regional growth

Income, consumption and remittances: Evidence from immigrants to Australia

For many countries, remittance behaviour by migrants is an important component of their overall international financial flows. To date, the empirical literature has analysed the propensity to remit as a function of migrants' socio-economic characteristics. However, no studies have fully addressed the empirical implications of remittance behaviour being determined in the broader context of migrants' labour, income and consumption allocation strategy. On the contrary, the migrant's income has almost always been treated as exogenous in this context. The aim of this study is to estimate a remittance equation that detects the main determinants of remittance behaviour while addressing endogeneity and reverse causality relationships between remittances, income, consumption and savings. Moreover, since a large share of individuals do not remit money at all, an instrumental variable variant of the double-hurdle selection model is proposed and estimated by LIML. A sending country perspective is adopted in the empirical analysis by considering the first cohort of the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia. We find that endogeneity is substantial and that estimates obtained by the methods previously employed in the literature may be very misleading if given a behavioural interpretation. Our results confirm some theoretical predictions and shed light on others; notably, we show that selfish motives in remitters are at least as important as altruistic motives. --Double-hurdle model,migration,remittances

Banks´ Inefficiency and Economic Growth A Micro-Macro Approach

This paper offers a methodological contribution to the empirical analysis of the relationships between banking and economic growth by suggesting a new indicator for the state of development of the banking system based on a measure of bank microeconomic efficiency. This choice helps to overcome the problem of causality and to capture the effects of the banks’ allocative activity. This new approach is then applied to analyse the relationship between the banking system and economic growth in the Italian regions, through a dynamic panel technique. The empirical results show the existence of an independent effect exerted by the efficiency of banks on regional growth.Bank efficiency, regional growth