THE COMPETITIVENESS IMPACT OF A MULTILATERAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TAX

The South African Government announced, in the 2008 Budget Review, the intention to tax the generation of electricity from non-renewable sources with 2c/kWh. This tax is to be collected by the producers/generators of electricity at the source. The intention of the tax is to serve a dual purpose of managing the potential electricity shortages in South Africa and to protect the environment. The primary objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the international competitiveness of South Africa. Specifically, different scenarios are assessed to establish whether the loss of competitiveness can be negated through an international, multilateral electricity generation tax. The paper firstly considers the beneficial impact of environmental taxation on the competitiveness of a country. We subsequently apply the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the competitiveness of South Africa, given multilateral taxes on SACU, SADC and European Union economies. We simulate the proposed tax as a 10 percent increase in the output price of electricity. We assume a closure rule that allows unskilled labour to migrate between sectors and a limited skilled workforce. As expected, a unilateral electricity generation tax in South Africa will adversely affect the competitiveness of the South African economy and slightly improve the competitiveness of the other SACU and SADC economies. However, if a multilateral tax is imposed throughout the SACU and SADC countries, South Africa will experience a marginally greater loss of competitiveness compared to a unilateral tax. At the same time the rest of the SACU and SADC countries will experience a loss of competitiveness. The benefit of emission reduction in South Africa will also be lower under these multilateral tax scenarios. The competitiveness effect on the South African economy as well as emission reduction will be more moderate under a multilateral South Africa/EU electricity generation tax than under a unilateral South African tax.

Border Tax Adjustments to Negate the Economic Impact of an Electricity Generation Tax

In the 2008 Budget Review, the South African government announced its intention to levy a 2c/kWh tax on the sale of electricity generated from non-renewable sources. This measure is intended to serve a dual purpose of helping to manage the current electricity supply shortages and to protect the environment (National Treasury 2008). An electricity generation tax is set to have an impact on the South African economy. However, several instruments have been proposed in the literature to protect the competitiveness and economy of a country when it imposes a green tax, one of these remedies being border tax adjustments.This paper evaluates the effectiveness for the South African case, of border tax adjustments (BTAs) in counteracting the negative impact of an electricity generation tax on competitiveness. The remedial effects of the BTAs are assessed in the light of their ability to maintain the environmental benefits of the electricity generation tax. Additionally, the the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies and to explore the possibility of reducing the economic impact of the electricity generation tax through BTAs. The results show that an electricity generation tax will lead to a contraction in South African gross domestic product (GDP). Traditional BTAs are unable to address these negative impacts. We propose a reversedBTA approach where gains from trade are utilised to counteract the negative effects of an electricity generation tax, while retaining the environmental benefits associated with the electricity generation tax. This is achieved through a lowering of import tariffs, as this will reduce production costs and thereby restore the competitiveness of the South African economy. The reduction in import tariffs not only negates the negative GDP impact of the electricity generation tax, but the bulk of CO2 abatement from the electricity generation tax is retained.

Analysis of the South African input-output table to determine sector specific economic impacts : a study on real estate

Input-output analysis is a well known method of analysing specific economic activity and the influence of different sectors on the economy and on one another. This study investigates the ability of input-output analysis to consider the importance of commercial real estate on the economy. It analyses the economic activity, contribution to GDP, employment created and taxes generated with reference to direct, indirect and induced impacts. The research shows the contribution of the specific sector on the economy and highlights the ability of input-output analysis to determine the impact of different types of property and locational analysis. The interaction of property with the economy is discussed, which also enables the use of the analysis reported here for short term future forecasting, whereby expected real estate activity is used to forecast the direct, indirect and induced effects on the economy.The South African Property Association (SAPOA)http://www.sajems.orgam2016Construction Economic

Macroeconomic impact of Eskom's six-year capital investment programme

This study analyses the impact of an increase in Eskom’s capital expenditure on the overall macro and sectoral economy using both a Time-Series Macro-Econometric (TSME) model and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation results from the TSME model reveal that in the long run, major macro variables (i.e. household consumption, GDP, and employment) will be positively affected by the increased investment. A weak transmission mechanism of the shock on the macro and sectoral economy is detected both in the short run and long run due to the relatively small share of electricity investment in total investment in the economy. On the other hand, the simulation results from the CGE reveal similar but more robust positive impacts on the macro economy. Most of the short-run macroeconomic impacts are reinforced in the long run.http://www.sajems.org/index.php/sajems (former http://www.journals.co.za/ej/ejour_ecoman.html

Macroeconomic impact of Eskom's six-year capital investment programme

This study analyses the impact of an increase in Eskom’s capital expenditure on the overall macro and sectoral economy using both a Time-Series Macro-Econometric (TSME) model and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation results from the TSME model reveal that in the long run, major macro variables (i.e. household consumption, GDP, and employment) will be positively affected by the increased investment. A weak transmission mechanism of the shock on the macro and sectoral economy is detected both in the short run and long run due to the relatively small share of electricity investment in total investment in the economy. On the other hand, the simulation results from the CGE reveal similar but more robust positive impacts on the macro economy. Most of the short-run macroeconomic impacts are reinforced in the long run.http://www.sajems.org/index.php/sajems (former http://www.journals.co.za/ej/ejour_ecoman.html

A greenhouse gas emissions inventory for South Africa : a comparative analysis

An energy-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for South Africa for various years is presented, but most notably an estimate for 2008, in terms of industrial sectors using the energy balances of South Africa is given. This figure is estimated to be between 470 000 and 550 000Gg of CO2-equiv. with the higher number probably being a more realistic reflection. This information is compared to six other inventories to i) assess the robustness of the results presented, and ii) to comment on the stability of the inventories available. From this comparative analysis it is evident that major discrepancies exist among the inventories both in terms of scope (i.e. sectors and gas composites included) as well as method of estimation used. These differences hamper the efficacy of, among others, any economic modelling exercise related to carbon emissions, such as estimating the impact of carbon taxes on the country. It is therefore argued that a consistent, robust and replicable framework for estimating GHG emissions that would also render timeous results, should be adopted.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/rserhb201

THE IMPACT OF AN ELECTRICITY GENERATION TAX ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

In the 2008 budget of the Minister of Finance, the South African Government proposed to impose a 2 cents/kilowatt-hour (c/kWh) tax on the sale of electricity generated from non-renewable sources; this tax is to be collected at source by the producers/generators of electricity. The intention of this measure is to serve a dual purpose of protecting the environment and helping to manage the current electricity supply shortages by reducing demand. The objective here is to evaluate the impact of such an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies. The paper firstly considers the theoretical foundations of an electricity generation tax supported by international experiences in this regard. This section also contrasts the suitability of a permit with a tax system to achieve CO2 emission reduction. We subsequently apply the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies. We simulate the proposed tax as a 10 percent increase in the output price of electricity. We assume a closure rule that allows unskilled labour to migrate and a limited skilled workforce. As expected, the electricity generation tax will reduce demand. Due to the decrease in domestic demand, export volume increases and import volume decreases, this is despite a weaker terms of trade. We also found that unemployment for unskilled labour increases and wages of skilled workers are expected to decrease. A unilateral electricity generation tax will benefit other SACU and SADC countries through an improvement in relative competitiveness, as shown by the improvement of the terms of trade for these regions. If, however, the benefits of pollution abatement are internalised, then electricity generation tax is expected to yield a positive effect on the South African economy.

The welfare effects of reversed border tax adjustments as a remedy under unilateral environmental taxation : a South African case study

Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) resurfaced recently in national policy debates as a possible measure to counter the anti-competitiveness effect of unilateral environmental taxes. There seems to be no consensus in the literature on the effectiveness of BTAs under environmental taxes. This paper aims firstly to provide a theoretical Heckscher-Ohlin analysis that not only challenges the effectiveness of BTAs, but also proposes an alternative approach to mitigate the welfare effects of environmental taxes. Secondly, the paper evaluate the effectiveness of the alternative approach, to negate the economic impact on competitiveness of an electricity generation tax, without sacrificing the environmental benefits of the tax, in the case of South Africa. Using conventional Heckscher-Ohlin methodology, in a small country, we show that policy makers should, instead of implementing BTAs, consider the opposite of BTAs to mitigate the welfare effects of environmental taxes. We show that gains from trade, due to a reduction in import tariffs, could, under certain assumptions, offset the initial tax induced welfare loss. The paper then applies the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impact of an electricity generation tax on the South African, SACU and SADC economies and explores the possibility to reduce the economic impact of the electricity generation tax through traditional border tax adjustments. The results show that an electricity generation tax will lead to a contraction of the South African gross domestic product. However, traditional BTAs are unable to address these negative impacts. The paper then test the proposed reversed BTA approach where gains from trade are utilised to negate the negative impacts of an electricity generation tax, while retaining the environmental benefits associated with the electricity generation tax. This is achieved through a reduction in import tariffs, as this reduction will reduce production costs and thereby restore the competitiveness of South Africa. The reduction in import tariffs not only negates the negative GDP impact of the electricity generation tax, but most the CO2 abatement from the electricity generation tax is retained.http://www.multi-science.co.uk/ee.htmhb2017Economic

The competitiveness effects of electricity generation taxes : a computable general equilibrium analysis

The South African Government, in the Budget Review of 2008, proposed to impose a 2c/kWh tax on the sale of electricity generated from non-renewable sources, to be collected at source by the producers/generators of electricity. This tax will create distortions in the South African economy. The research study aims to identify measures that can be taken to negate the negative competitiveness impact of the tax. In the first part of the study, we applied the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, which is coordinated by the Centre for Global Trade Analysis at Purdue University. The GTAP model is the pre-eminent modelling framework for the analysis of trade and environmental issues across countries. GTAP is a multi-region CGE model designed for comparative-static analysis of trade policy issues. Various versions were constructed and the closure was changed to reflect the South African reality more accurately. After the national as well as international economic and environmental impacts were analysed, we considered Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) as a possible remedy to negate the negative competitiveness impact of the tax. Utilising theoretical Heckscher-Ohlin methodology, as well as the GTAP model, we showed that BTAs will not negate the adverse economic impact of an environmental tax. Instead, reversed BTAs, through gains of trade, could reverse the negative economic impact of an electricity generation tax, while enabling an economy to retain most of the environmental benefits of the tax. We also considered the impact of an integrated approach, consisting of an electricity generation tax and a demand side policy, on the welfare of households. To analyse this, we used the University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM). The model was extended to reflect Equivalent Variation values and we updated the database to include import tariffs. It was then shown that reversed BTAs could be used to offset the regressiveness of the electricity generation tax. Policy implications from the study will be useful for macroeconomic policies, international trade negotiations and environmental policies to increase the welfare of society.Thesis (DCom)--University of Pretoria, 2011.Economicsunrestricte