An economic evaluation of the Organic Farming Scheme

This report was presented at the UK Organic Research 2002 Conference. This paper describes a review commissioned by DEFRA into the operation of the Organic Farming Scheme. In particular the review examines the rationale of the Scheme, and its effectiveness and efficiency in meeting its objectives, and makes recommendations for improvements to the Scheme

Is the future of electoral reform local?

The Electoral Reform Society has recently published two reports putting the case for electoral reform in local government. These suggest acceptance, in the wake of defeat in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum, that the group’s ultimate goal of change to the Westminster electoral system is unlikely to be fulfilled soon and that a more gradual strategy is therefore needed. This paper examines this shift by asking three questions. First, is Westminster electoral reform really a dead letter? Second, is local electoral reform more likely—and, if so, just how much more likely? Third, would local electoral reform matter in itself

Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases

Could Scotland buck the trend and vote ‘yes’?

The polls have been narrowing in Scotland’s independence referendum debate with the vote just over two weeks away. Alan Renwick reflects here on whether the ‘Yes’ campaign really could pull off an unexpected victory

The Citizens' Assembly on Brexit: reflections on the first weekend

The Citizens' Assembly on Brexit - a gathering of randomly-selected people who will learn about the options for the form Brexit should take - has just begun its work. The project's director Alan Renwick (UCL Constitution Unit) offers some initial, personal reflections on a highly successful first weekend. The Citizens' Assembly on Brexit has just completed its first weekend of deliberations. As an earlier ..

What would voters be asked in a second EU referendum – and would they get it?

If – and it’s a big if – the government were to call a second EU referendum, what question would it ask? And would it be able to deliver the answer? In this extract from a new UCL European Institute working paper, Alan Renwick examines the likelihood, terms and outcome of any ‘second round’ vote

The future of referendums: what role should they play and how should they be conducted?

Two decades have passed since there was last a serious consideration of how the UK uses referendums. For this reason, the Constitution Unit established the Independent Commission on Referendums to examine whether and how the way in which referendums are regulated in the UK should be changed. Alan Renwick (University College London) explains its terms of reference

Crop Substitution on UK Sugar Beet Farms and its Effects on the Environment: A Multi-Product Cost Function Approach

This paper analyzes the effect that the imminent reform of the EU sugar beet regime will have on United Kingdom (UK) sugar beet farms. Specifically, we estimate a multi-product cost function to analyze the effect the changes on the sugar beet price support and quota will have on the crop allocation of sugar beet farms and their aggregate use of inputs. Based on these estimates we discuss the implications that changes in the crop patterns may have on farm environmental variables such as soil loss and groundwater pollution.Agricultural and Food Policy,

RETAILERS PRICE BEHAVIOUR IN THE UK FRESH FRUIT AND VEGETABLE MARKET

The purpose of this paper is to study the price behaviour of fresh produce at the retail level of two leading supermarkets, Tesco and Sainsbury, with the purpose of gaining knowledge about their interaction. We focus the study on six products from the fresh fruits and vegetable group (i.e., tomatoes, Bramley’s apples, white cabbage, cucumbers, Iceberg lettuce and Round lettuce) due to the fact on the one hand it is a less complex supply chain (e.g., perishable product, less number of intermediaries) and on the other hand, because during the last 20 years the group has significantly evolved with supermarkets becoming the major players in the chain. The empirical methodology consisted of using Granger causality tests to establish the relationship between the series (e.g., leader-follower) and then vector autoregressive (VAR) models and variance decomposition procedures to capture the interaction of supermarket prices by product. Overall results indicate that the competition behaviour amongst the two retailers changes by product and evolve over timeUK retail prices, supermarket competition, UK fresh produce market, Demand and Price Analysis,

MEASURING CROSS-SUBSIDISATION OF THE SINGLE PAYMENT SCHEME IN ENGLAND

The specific purpose of this paper is to estimate the extent to which decoupled payments under the Single Payments Scheme (SPS) are being used (either explicitly or implicitly) in England to support the continuation of activities that were previously supported by area and headage payments. In the absence of a farm survey, the methodology consists of using information on farm accounts collected through England’s Farm Business Survey (FBS), to estimate a multi-output cost function differentiated by farm size and farm type. This cost function, calibrated to match regional prices in England, is used to estimate the level of cross-subsidisation in the first full year after implementation of the SPS (2005/06). Results indicate that cross-subsidisation was occurring, which might infer that many farmers across England are coupling their payments. Whilst, these results are for the first year, and in that sense may reflect a transitional situation, they are nevertheless important because they provide empirical evidence to inform the discussion concerning the impact and future development of the SPS.English agriculture, single farm payment, micro-econometric models., Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q12, Q18,