Country focus: India

Midway through his five-year term, Narendra Modi remains popular but the Hindu nationalist Prime Minister faces the challenge of delivering on his campaign promises. Rekha Diwakar reports on the world’s most diverse – and largest – democracy

An Evaluation of Normal Versus Lognormal Distribution in Data Description and Empirical Analysis

Many existing methods of statistical inference and analysis rely heavily on the assumption that the data are normally distributed. However, the normality assumption is not fulfilled when dealing with data which does not contain negative values or are otherwise skewed – a common occurrence in diverse disciplines such as finance, economics, political science, sociology, philology, biology and physical and industrial processes. In this situation, a lognormal distribution may better represent the data than the normal distribution. In this paper, I re-visit the key attributes of the normal and lognormal distributions, and demonstrate through an empirical analysis of the ‘number of political parties\u27 in India, how logarithmic transformation can help in bringing a lognormally distributed data closer to a normal one. The paper also provides further empirical evidence to show that many variables of interest to political and other social scientists could be better modelled using the lognormal distribution. More generally, the paper emphasises the potential for improved description and empirical analysis of quantitative data by paying more attention to its distribution, and complements previous publications in Practical Research and Assessment Evaluation (PARE) on this subject. Accessed 4,840 times on https://pareonline.net from December 21, 2017 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right

An evaluation of normal versus lognormal distribution in data description and empirical analysis

Many existing methods of statistical inference and analysis rely heavily on the assumption that the data are normally distributed. However, the normality assumption is not fulfilled when dealing with data which does not contain negative values or are otherwise skewed – a common occurrence in diverse disciplines such as finance, economics, political science, sociology, philology, biology and physical and industrial processes. In this situation, a lognormal distribution may better represent the data than the normal distribution. In this paper, I re-visit the key attributes of the normal and lognormal distributions, and demonstrate through an empirical analysis of the ‘number of political parties' in India, how logarithmic transformation can help in bringing a lognormally distributed data closer to a normal one. The paper also provides further empirical evidence to show that many variables of interest to political and other social scientists could be better modelled using the lognormal distribution. More generally, the paper emphasises the potential for improved description and empirical analysis of quantitative data by paying more attention to its distribution, and complements previous publications in Practical Research and Assessment Evaluation (PARE) on this subject

An investigation into the determinants of the size of Indian party systems

Research on the Indian party system has been dominated by descriptive approaches, wherein case studies of a specific party, election or geographic region have been analysed. Cross-country studies that include the Indian data tend to focus only on the national level, paying little attention to the party systems at the sub-national level. My thesis compiles a comprehensive database covering the period 1951 to 2004, and undertakes an empirical investigation into the determinants of the size of Indian party system at the sub-national level. The main focus of my thesis is the state level, but I also undertake analysis at the district level to evaluate Duverger's Law, and the effects of District Magnitude and Electoral reservation on the size of the Indian party system. I investigate the effects of institutional, sociological and contextual variables on the size of the party systems in the Indian states. I find that Assembly Size and Effective Threshold are important institutional variables affecting the size of party system. States with larger Assembly Size tend to have higher number of parties, while higher Effective Thresholds are associated with lower number of parties. Further, higher social and religious heterogeneity increases the number of parties in the Indian states. Federal centralisation and dependence of the states' on the national government emerge as important contextual variables affecting the size of the Indian party system I find that these two factors reduce the number of parties at the state level. My unified regression analysis shows the importance of institutional, sociological and contextual factors in determining the size of the party systems in the Indian states. Finally, I discuss the implications of my findings on the electoral and political system and democracy in India, and identify some important areas of future research

Change and continuity in Indian politics and party system: revisiting the results of 2014 Indian general election

The 2014 Indian general election marked a single party – the Bharatiya Janata Party, winning a majority of seats in Lok Sabha, the first time since the 1984 election. The Congress, the other main national party, suffered its worst ever defeat. This election was termed by some as a 'critical election' signalling the advent of a new phase of a ‘BJP dominated’ party system in India. In this paper, I revisit the results of this election, and of the subsequent state assembly elections to analyse if these signal a substantial change in the political landscape and the party system in India. I argue that although Congress’ decline has continued, and the BJP has won many recent state assembly elections, it is premature to conclude that the Indian party system has shifted to a ‘BJP dominated’ one. Further, given India’s first-past-the-post electoral system, and a diffuse political environment where state and regional parties continue to be strong in many parts of the country, achieving a legislative majority remains a difficult proposition for a single party

Duverger's Law and the Size Of the Indian Party Sytem

Duverger's law postulates that single-member plurality electoral systems lead to two-party systems. Existing scholarship regards India as an exception to this law at national level, but not at district level. This study tests the latter hypothesis through analysis of a comprehensive dataset covering Indian parliamentary elections in the period 1952—2004. The results show that a large number of Indian districts do not conform to the Duvergerian norm of two-party competition, and that there is no consistent movement towards the Duvergerian equilibrium. Furthermore, inter-region and inter-state variations in the size of district-level party systems make it difficult to generalize about the application of Duverger's law to the Indian case. The study concludes that a narrow focus on electoral rules is inadequate, and that a more comprehensive set of explanatory variables is needed to explain the size of the Indian party system even at the district level

The Indian General Election is the world’s largest, and the country’s most significant in years

India, the largest democracy in the world with 814 million eligible voters, is in the midst of an election to choose its next Government. The contest covers 28 states and 9 Union territories, and takes place in nine phases. Rekha Diwakar argues that these elections mark a cross-roads for India’s governance, with a clear and decisive result creating space for increased political stability, while a fractured mandate could usher in an era in instability, opportunistic politics and policy incoherence

Party system in India

Party systems have important political, social, and economic consequences in a polity. This book analyses the characteristics, evolution, and determinants of party system in India.Through a combination of examining theoretical explanations and interpreting empirical data, this book facilitates a clear comprehension of the various phases of the Indian party system, from Congress' dominance to the fragmentation of the party system, the emergence of regional parties and coalition politics, and more recently a move towards a BJP-centred party system. It argues that the party system in India continues to be shaped by a complex interaction of sociological, institutional, and contextual factors. By situating the Indian party system in the context of these determinants, this book also attempts to provide a framework for comparative analysis of party systems. It highlights that both national and regional parties remain crucial parts of the party system given India's sociocultural diversity, and politics that continues to be coalitional. Outlining the key challenges facing parties in India, the book nevertheless reinforces the argument that a competitive party system is key to the functioning of Indian democracy, and the parties remain the most important link between the state and its citizens

2019 election and the future of Indian democracy

Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won an impressive victory in India’s recent General Election. Modi’s dominance presents both opportunities and dangers for Indian democracy writes Rekha Diwakar

The origins and consequences of regional parties and subnationalism in India

This article explores the origins and consequences of India’s regional parties and subnationalism, focusing and expanding on the key arguments made by Prerna Singh and Adam Ziegfeld in their books. According to Singh, when political leaders promote an inclusive form of subnationalism, it creates a feeling of cohesive solidarity across the region, which helps to achieve superior social welfare outcomes in the Indian states. Ziegfeld provides an elite-centered explanation for the emergence and success of India’s regional parties, and considers Indian politics to be dominated by clientelistic relationships between parties and voters, which leads to delivery of particularistic rather than public goods. The article also discusses two key themes emerging from the books relating to the importance of subnational versus national identity, and the significance of interests versus ideas in shaping Indian politics and public policy. Finally, it identifies future areas for research on regional parties and subnationalism in India