Precursor flares in OJ 287

We have studied three most recent precursor flares in the light curve of the blazar OJ 287 while invoking the presence of a precessing binary black hole in the system to explain the nature of these flares. Precursor flare timings from the historical light curves are compared with theoretical predictions from our model that incorporate effects of an accretion disk and post-Newtonian description for the binary black hole orbit. We find that the precursor flares coincide with the secondary black hole descending towards the accretion disk of the primary black hole from the observed side, with a mean z-component of approximately z_c = 4000 AU. We use this model of precursor flares to predict that precursor flare of similar nature should happen around 2020.96 before the next major outburst in 2022.Comment: to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

Locating the γ-ray emission site in Fermi/LAT blazars – II. Multifrequency correlations

In an attempt to constrain and understand the emission mechanism of γ-rays, we perform a cross-correlation analysis of 15 blazars using light curves in millimetre, optical and γ-rays. We use discrete correlation function and consider only correlations significant at the 99 per cent level. A strong correlation was found between 37 and 95 GHz with a near-zero time delay in most of the sources, and ∼1 month or longer in the rest. A similar result was obtained between the optical and γ-ray bands. Of the 15 sources, less than 50 per cent showed a strong correlation between the millimetre and γ-ray or millimetre and optical bands. The primary reason for the lack of statistically significant correlation is the absence of a major outburst in the millimetre bands of most of the sources during the 2.5 yr time period investigated in our study. This may indicate that only the long-term variations or large flares are correlated between these bands. The variability of the sources at every waveband was also inspected using fractional rms variability (F_(var)). The F_(var) displays an increase with frequency reaching its maximum in the γ-rays

The 72-Hour WEBT Microvariability Observation of Blazar S5 0716+714 in 2009

Context. The international whole earth blazar telescope (WEBT) consortium planned and carried out three days of intensive micro-variability observations of S5 0716+714 from February 22, 2009 to February 25, 2009. This object was chosen due to its bright apparent magnitude range, its high declination, and its very large duty cycle for micro-variations. Aims. We report here on the long continuous optical micro-variability light curve of 0716+714 obtained during the multi-site observing campaign during which the Blazar showed almost constant variability over a 0.5 magnitude range. The resulting light curve is presented here for the first time. Observations from participating observatories were corrected for instrumental differences and combined to construct the overall smoothed light curve. Methods. Thirty-six observatories in sixteen countries participated in this continuous monitoring program and twenty of them submitted data for compilation into a continuous light curve. The light curve was analyzed using several techniques including Fourier transform, Wavelet and noise analysis techniques. Those results led us to model the light curve by attributing the variations to a series of synchrotron pulses. Results. We have interpreted the observed microvariations in this extended light curve in terms of a new model consisting of individual stochastic pulses due to cells in a turbulent jet which are energized by a passing shock and cool by means of synchrotron emission. We obtained an excellent fit to the 72-hour light curve with the synchrotron pulse model

Continuous 1.3-Million-Year Record of East African Hydroclimate, and Implications for Patterns of Evolution and Biodiversity

The transport of moisture in the tropics is a critical process for the global energy budget and on geologic timescales, has markedly influenced continental landscapes, migratory pathways, and biological evolution. Here we present a continuous, first-of-its-kind 1.3-My record of continental hydroclimate and lake-level variability derived from drill core data from Lake Malawi, East Africa (9–15° S). Over the Quaternary, we observe dramatic shifts in effective moisture, resulting in large-scale changes in one of the world’s largest lakes and most diverse freshwater ecosystems. Results show evidence for 24 lake level drops of more than 200 m during the Late Quaternary, including 15 lowstands when water levels were more than 400 m lower than modern. A dramatic shift is observed at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), consistent with far-field climate forcing, which separates vastly different hydroclimate regimes before and after ∼800,000 years ago. Before 800 ka, lake levels were lower, indicating a climate drier than today, and water levels changed frequently. Following the MPT high-amplitude lake level variations dominate the record. From 800 to 100 ka, a deep, often overfilled lake occupied the basin, indicating a wetter climate, but these highstands were interrupted by prolonged intervals of extreme drought. Periods of high lake level are observed during times of high eccentricity. The extreme hydroclimate variability exerted a profound influence on the Lake Malawi endemic cichlid fish species flock; the geographically extensive habitat reconfiguration provided novel ecological opportunities, enabling new populations to differentiate rapidly to distinct species

The brightest gamma-ray flaring blazar in the sky: AGILE and multi-wavelength observations of 3C 454.3 during November 2010

Since 2005, the blazar 3C 454.3 has shown remarkable flaring activity at all frequencies, and during the last four years it has exhibited more than one gamma-ray flare per year, becoming the most active gamma-ray blazar in the sky. We present for the first time the multi-wavelength AGILE, SWIFT, INTEGRAL, and GASP-WEBT data collected in order to explain the extraordinary gamma-ray flare of 3C 454.3 which occurred in November 2010. On 2010 November 20 (MJD 55520), 3C 454.3 reached a peak flux (E>100 MeV) of F_gamma(p) = (6.8+-1.0)E-5 ph/cm2/s on a time scale of about 12 hours, more than a factor of 6 higher than the flux of the brightest steady gamma-ray source, the Vela pulsar, and more than a factor of 3 brighter than its previous super-flare on 2009 December 2-3. The multi-wavelength data make a thorough study of the present event possible: the comparison with the previous outbursts indicates a close similarity to the one that occurred in 2009. By comparing the broadband emission before, during, and after the gamma-ray flare, we find that the radio, optical and X-ray emission varies within a factor 2-3, whereas the gamma-ray flux by a factor of 10. This remarkable behavior is modeled by an external Compton component driven by a substantial local enhancement of soft seed photons.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters. 18 Pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl

Locating the γ-ray emission site in Fermi/LAT blazars – II. Multifrequency correlations

In an attempt to constrain and understand the emission mechanism of γ-rays, we perform a cross-correlation analysis of 15 blazars using light curves in millimetre, optical and γ-rays. We use discrete correlation function and consider only correlations significant at the 99 per cent level. A strong correlation was found between 37 and 95 GHz with a near-zero time delay in most of the sources, and ∼1 month or longer in the rest. A similar result was obtained between the optical and γ-ray bands. Of the 15 sources, less than 50 per cent showed a strong correlation between the millimetre and γ-ray or millimetre and optical bands. The primary reason for the lack of statistically significant correlation is the absence of a major outburst in the millimetre bands of most of the sources during the 2.5 yr time period investigated in our study. This may indicate that only the long-term variations or large flares are correlated between these bands. The variability of the sources at every waveband was also inspected using fractional rms variability (F_(var)). The F_(var) displays an increase with frequency reaching its maximum in the γ-rays

On the Location of the Gamma-ray Emission in the 2008 Outburst in the BL Lacertae Object AO 0235+164 through Observations across the Electromagnetic Spectrum

We present observations of a major outburst at centimeter, millimeter, optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths of the BL Lacertae object AO 0235+164. We analyze the timing of multi-waveband variations in the flux and linear polarization, as well as changes in Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) images at 7mm with 0.15 milliarcsecond resolution. The association of the events at different wavebands is confirmed at high statistical significance by probability arguments and Monte-Carlo simulations. A series of sharp peaks in optical linear polarization, as well as a pronounced maximum in the 7 mm polarization of a superluminal jet knot, indicate rapid fluctuations in the degree of ordering of the magnetic field. These results lead us to conclude that the outburst occurred in the jet both in the quasi-stationary "core" and in the superluminal knot, both parsecs downstream of the supermassive black hole. We interpret the outburst as a consequence of the propagation of a disturbance, elongated along the line of sight by light-travel time delays, that passes through a standing recollimation shock in the core and propagates down the jet to create the superluminal knot. The multi-wavelength light curves vary together on long time-scales (months/years), but the correspondence is poorer on shorter time-scales. This, as well as the variability of the polarization and the dual location of the outburst, agrees with the expectations of a multi-zone emission model in which turbulence plays a major role in modulating the synchrotron and inverse Compton fluxes.Comment: Accepted for Publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters. 7 pages (including 5 figures). Minor corrections with regard to previous version, as proposed by the refere