Explainable deep learning-based survival prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients undergoing radical radiotherapy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Survival is frequently assessed using Cox proportional hazards (CPH) regression; however, CPH may be too simplistic as it assumes a linear relationship between covariables and the outcome. Alternative, non-linear machine learning (ML)-based approaches, such as random survival forests (RSFs) and, more recently, deep learning (DL) have been proposed; however, these techniques are largely black-box in nature, limiting explainability. We compared CPH, RSF and DL to predict overall survival (OS) of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients receiving radiotherapy using pre-treatment covariables. We employed explainable techniques to provide insights into the contribution of each covariable on OS prediction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The dataset contained 471 stage I-IV NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. We built CPH, RSF and DL OS prediction models using several baseline covariable combinations. 10-fold Monte-Carlo cross-validation was employed with a split of 70%:10%:20% for training, validation and testing, respectively. We primarily evaluated performance using the concordance index (C-index) and integrated Brier score (IBS). Local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) values, adapted for use in survival analysis, were computed for each model. RESULTS: The DL method exhibited a significantly improved C-index of 0.670 compared to the CPH and a significantly improved IBS of 0.121 compared to the CPH and RSF approaches. LIME values suggested that, for the DL method, the three most important covariables in OS prediction were stage, administration of chemotherapy and oesophageal mean radiation dose. CONCLUSION: We show that, using pre-treatment covariables, a DL approach demonstrates superior performance over CPH and RSF for OS prediction and use explainable techniques to provide transparency and interpretability

Mutation of a single residue, β-glutamate-20, alters protein–lipid interactions of light harvesting complex II

It is well established that assembly of the peripheral antenna complex, LH2, is required for proper photosynthetic membrane biogenesis in the purple bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides. The underlying interactions are, as yet, not understood. Here we examined the relationship between the morphology of the photosynthetic membrane and the lipid–protein interactions at the LH2–lipid interface. The non-bilayer lipid, phosphatidylethanolamine, is shown to be highly enriched in the boundary lipid phase of LH2. Sequence alignments indicate a putative lipid binding site, which includes β-glutamate-20 and the adjacent carotenoid end group. Replacement of β-glutamate-20 with alanine results in significant reduction of phosphatidylethanolamine and concomitant raise in phosphatidylcholine in the boundary lipid phase of LH2 without altering the lipid composition of the bulk phase. The morphology of the LH2 housing membrane is, however, unaffected by the amino acid replacement. In contrast, simultaneous modification of glutamate-20 and exchange of the carotenoid sphaeroidenone with neurosporene results in significant enlargement of the vesicular membrane invaginations. These findings suggest that the LH2 complex, specifically β-glutamate-20 and the carotenoids' polar head group, contribute to the shaping of the photosynthetic membrane by specific interactions with surrounding lipid molecules

Novel Loci for Adiponectin Levels and Their Influence on Type 2 Diabetes and Metabolic Traits : A Multi-Ethnic Meta-Analysis of 45,891 Individuals

J. Kaprio, S. Ripatti ja M.-L. Lokki työryhmien jäseniä.Peer reviewe

A Solve-RD ClinVar-based reanalysis of 1522 index cases from ERN-ITHACA reveals common pitfalls and misinterpretations in exome sequencing

Purpose Within the Solve-RD project (https://solve-rd.eu/), the European Reference Network for Intellectual disability, TeleHealth, Autism and Congenital Anomalies aimed to investigate whether a reanalysis of exomes from unsolved cases based on ClinVar annotations could establish additional diagnoses. We present the results of the “ClinVar low-hanging fruit” reanalysis, reasons for the failure of previous analyses, and lessons learned. Methods Data from the first 3576 exomes (1522 probands and 2054 relatives) collected from European Reference Network for Intellectual disability, TeleHealth, Autism and Congenital Anomalies was reanalyzed by the Solve-RD consortium by evaluating for the presence of single-nucleotide variant, and small insertions and deletions already reported as (likely) pathogenic in ClinVar. Variants were filtered according to frequency, genotype, and mode of inheritance and reinterpreted. Results We identified causal variants in 59 cases (3.9%), 50 of them also raised by other approaches and 9 leading to new diagnoses, highlighting interpretation challenges: variants in genes not known to be involved in human disease at the time of the first analysis, misleading genotypes, or variants undetected by local pipelines (variants in off-target regions, low quality filters, low allelic balance, or high frequency). Conclusion The “ClinVar low-hanging fruit” analysis represents an effective, fast, and easy approach to recover causal variants from exome sequencing data, herewith contributing to the reduction of the diagnostic deadlock

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited