Distribution ecology – any way forward?

Open Access journalBook review of - Distribution Ecology: from Individual Habitat Use to Species Biogeographical Range. Marcelo H. Cassini, 2013, Springer. ISBN: 978146146414

Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts

Copyright © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRSForecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift. By analysing the 'climate paths' that range shifts might follow, and two key range-shift processes--dispersal and population persistence--we show that short-term climatic and population characteristics have dramatic effects on range-shift forecasts. By employing this approach with 15 amphibian species in the western USA, we make unexpected predictions. First, inter-decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers. Second, the hitherto unappreciated trait of persistence during unfavourable climatic conditions is critical to species range shifts. Third, climatic fluctuations and low persistence could lead to endangerment even if the future potential range size is large. These considerations may render habitat corridors ineffectual for some species, and conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technolog

Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change

Copyright © 2013 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Trends in Ecology and Evolution Vol. 28 (2013), DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.010The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution models can be misleading. The degree to which species can tolerate or even thrive under conditions found beyond their current distributions alters extinction risks, time lags in realizing those risks, and the usefulness of alternative management strategies. To inform these issues, we propose a conceptual framework within which empirical data could be used to generate hypotheses regarding the realized, fundamental, and ‘tolerance’ niche of species. Although these niche components have rarely been characterized over geographic scales, we suggest that this could be done for many plant species by comparing native, naturalized, and horticultural distributions.FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Usefulness of species traits in predicting range shifts

Information on species’ ecological traits might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. We present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: (i) emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location, (ii) the distance a species can move, (iii) establishment of self-sustaining populations, and (iv) proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically, how this categorisation can be used to better understand range shift processes, and illustrate how range shift estimates can be improved

Climate change impacts on long-term forest productivity might be driven by species turnover rather than by changes in tree growth

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordAim: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter-related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change might also reshuffle community composition, with further effects on forest functioning. However, the relative importance of these two effects has rarely been studied. Here, we developed a novel modelling approach to investigate such importance for forest productivity. Location: 11 forest sites in central Europe. Time period: Historical (years 1901-1990) and end-of the-century (2070-2100) climatic conditions. We simulated 2000 years of forest dynamics for each condition. Major taxa studied: 25 common tree species in European temperate forests. Methods: We coupled species distribution models and a forest succession model, working at complementary spatial and temporal scales, to simulate the climatic filtering shaping potential tree species pools, the biotic filtering shaping realized communities, and the functioning of these realized communities in the long term. Results: Under an average temperature increase (relative to 1901-1990) of between 1.5 ºC and 1.7 ºC, changes in simulated forest productivity were mostly caused by changes in the growth of persisting tree species. With an average temperature increase of 3.6 ºC – 4.0 ºC, changes in simulated productivity at currently climatically mild sites were again predominantly caused by changes in tree species growth. However, at the currently warmest and coldest sites, productivity changes were mostly related to shifts in species composition. In general, at the coldest sites, forest productivity is likely to be enhanced by climate change, and at the warmest sites productivity might increase or decrease depending on the future regime of precipitation. Main conclusions: Combining two complementary modelling approaches that address questions at the interface between biogeography, community ecology, and ecosystem functioning, reveals that climate change-driven community reshuffling in the long term might be critically important for ecosystem functioning.ANRERA‐Net BiodivERsAFun2Fun projectDRESS projec

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Copyright © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal SocietyGeographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.Australian Research CouncilIntegrated Program of IC&DTFCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Identifying climate‐smart tropical Key Biodiversity Areas for protection in response to widespread temperature novelty

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are a cornerstone of 21st‐century area‐based conservation targets. In tropical KBAs, biodiversity is potentially at high risk from climate change, because most species reside within or beneath the canopy, where small increases in temperature can lead to novel climate regimes. We quantify novelty in temperature regimes by modeling hourly temperatures below the forest canopy across tropical KBAs between 1990 and 2019. We find that up to 66% of KBAs with tropical forests have recently transitioned to novel temperature regimes. Nevertheless, 34% of KBAs are providing refuge from novelty, 58% of which are not protected. By conducting the first pan‐tropical analyses of changes in below‐canopy temperature conditions in KBAs, we identify KBAs that are acting as climate refugia and should be considered for expansion of the conservation network in response to the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework target to conserve 30% of land area by 2030

Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using Species Distribution Models

Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW’s present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species

In vivo assessment of the metabolic activity of CYP2D6 diplotypes and alleles

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/115922/1/bcp12665.pd

Breast density predicts endocrine treatment outcome in the adjuvant setting

PMCID: PMC3680935See related research article by Kim et al., http://breast-cancer-research.com/content/14/4/R10