Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Development and Validation of Three Novel UV Spectrophotometric Methods for Determination of Newly Discovered Combination for the Treatment of Hepatitis C and Their Comparison Using ANOVA

Sofosbuvir and Velpatasvir combination is used for hepatits C and newly introduce in market. It is necessary to develop suitable quality control methods for rapid and accurate determination of these drugs. Three simple, accurate, sensitive, precise and economical UV spectrophotometric methods (A, B & C) have been developed for simultaneous estimation of Sofosbuvir and Velpatasvir in pharmaceutical dosage form and their comparision using ANOVA. Method (A) is based on the first order derivative spectrophotometric method at zero crossing wavelength. In this method the zero crossing point of Sofosbuvir is 260 nm and for Velpatasvir is 250 nm. The linearity was obtained in the concentration range of 4-24µg/ml for Sofosbuvir and 1-6µg/ml for Velpatasvir using methanol as a solvent. Method (B) is based on principle of absorbance correction, it was performed at 260 nm for Sofosbuvir and at 302 nm for Velpatasvir. Method (C) is based on principle of dual wavelength method developed using absorbance difference at 250 nm and 268.26 nm for Sofosbuvir and 280 nm and 259.28 nm for Velpatasvir. The accuracy and precision of the methods were determined and validated statistically. All the methods showed good reproducibility and recovery with % RSD less than 2. The three methods were compared using one -way ANOVA and the fcal value was found to be less than ftab value indicating that there is no significant difference in the assay results by the three methods. All methods were found to be rapid, specific, precise and accurate and these methods require no preliminary separation and found no interferences from the tablet excipients so it can be used for routine analysis of both drugs in quality control laboratories

Current Practices in Hepatic Artery Infusion (HAI) Chemotherapy:An International Survey of the HAI Consortium Research Network

Background: An increasing number of hepatic artery infusion (HAI) programs have been established worldwide. Practice patterns for this complex therapy across these programs have not been reported. This survey aimed to identify current practice patterns in HAI therapy with the long-term goal of defining best practices and performing prospective studies. Methods: Using SurveyMonkeyTM, a 28-question survey assessing current practices in HAI was developed by 12 HAI Consortium Research Network (HCRN) surgical oncologists. Content analysis was used to code textual responses, and the frequency of categories was calculated. Scores for rank-order questions were generated by calculating average ranking for each answer choice. Results: Thirty-six (72%) HCRN members responded to the survey. The most common intended initial indications for HAI at new programs were unresectable colorectal liver metastases (uCRLM; 100%) and unresectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (uIHC; 56%). Practice patterns evolved such that uCRLM (94%) and adjuvant therapy for CRLM (adjCRLM; 72%) have become the most common current indications for HAI at established centers. Referral patterns for pump placement differed between uCRLM and uIHC, with most patients referred while receiving second- and first-line therapy, respectively, with physicians preferring to evaluate patients for HAI while receiving first-line therapy for CRLM. Concern for extrahepatic disease was ranked as the most important factor when considering a patient for HAI. Conclusions:Indication and patient selection factors for HAI therapy are relatively uniform across most HCRN centers. The increasing use of adjuvant HAI therapy and overall consistency of practice patterns among HCRN centers provides a robust environment for prospective data collection and randomized clinical trials.</p

A Phase I Clinical Trial of Systemically Delivered NEMO Binding Domain Peptide in Dogs with Spontaneous Activated B-Cell like Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

<div><p>Activated B-Cell (ABC) Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) is a common, aggressive and poorly chemoresponsive subtype of DLBCL, characterized by constitutive canonical NF-κB signaling. Inhibition of NF-κB signaling leads to apoptosis of ABC-DLBCL cell lines, suggesting targeted disruption of this pathway may have therapeutic relevance. The selective IKK inhibitor, NEMO Binding Domain (NBD) peptide effectively blocks constitutive NF-κB activity and induces apoptosis in ABC-DLBCL cells <i>in vitro</i>. Here we used a comparative approach to determine the safety and efficacy of systemic NBD peptide to inhibit constitutive NF-κB signaling in privately owned dogs with spontaneous newly diagnosed or relapsed ABC-like DLBCL. Malignant lymph nodes biopsies were taken before and twenty-four hours after peptide administration to determine biological effects. Intravenous administration of <2 mg/kg NBD peptide was safe and inhibited constitutive canonical NF-κB activity in 6/10 dogs. Reductions in mitotic index and Cyclin D expression also occurred in a subset of dogs 24 hours post peptide and in 3 dogs marked, therapeutically beneficial histopathological changes were identified. Mild, grade 1 toxicities were noted in 3 dogs at the time of peptide administration and one dog developed transient subclinical hepatopathy. Long term toxicities were not identified. Pharmacokinetic data suggested rapid uptake of peptide into tissues. No significant hematological or biochemical toxicities were identified. Overall the results from this phase I study indicate that systemic administration of NBD peptide is safe and effectively blocks constitutive NF-κB signaling and reduces malignant B cell proliferation in a subset of dogs with ABC-like DLBCL. These results have potential translational relevance for human ABC-DLBCL.</p></div

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with paediatric cancer in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Paediatric cancer is a leading cause of death for children. Children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) were four times more likely to die than children in high-income countries (HICs). This study aimed to test the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the delivery of healthcare services worldwide, and exacerbated the disparity in paediatric cancer outcomes between LMICs and HICs. DESIGN: A multicentre, international, collaborative cohort study. SETTING: 91 hospitals and cancer centres in 39 countries providing cancer treatment to paediatric patients between March and December 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were included if they were under the age of 18 years, and newly diagnosed with or undergoing active cancer treatment for Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms' tumour, sarcoma, retinoblastoma, gliomas, medulloblastomas or neuroblastomas, in keeping with the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality at 30 days and 90 days. RESULTS: 1660 patients were recruited. 219 children had changes to their treatment due to the pandemic. Patients in LMICs were primarily affected (n=182/219, 83.1%). Relative to patients with paediatric cancer in HICs, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 12.1 (95% CI 2.93 to 50.3) and 7.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 19.7) times the odds of death at 30 days and 90 days, respectively, after presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic (p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 15.6 (95% CI 3.7 to 65.8) times the odds of death at 30 days (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected paediatric oncology service provision. It has disproportionately affected patients in LMICs, highlighting and compounding existing disparities in healthcare systems globally that need addressing urgently. However, many patients with paediatric cancer continued to receive their normal standard of care. This speaks to the adaptability and resilience of healthcare systems and healthcare workers globally