Leave one out cross validation for regression of diversification against latitude.

Points and error bars represent estimates of the coefficient of this regression (±2 SE) with the corresponding fleet removed from the data, red line indicates the mean estimate of the coefficient with all fleets included in the analysis. Changes in sign of the coefficient indicate a difference in the qualitative directional relationship between diversification and latitude. (TIFF)</p

Bottom temperature change, horizontal displacement of bottom temperature, and vertical displacement of bottom temperature projected by three dynamically downscaled Earth System Models (GFDL, HAD, IPSL) for the period 2025–2055 and 2065–2095.

Bottom temperature change, horizontal displacement of bottom temperature, and vertical displacement of bottom temperature projected by three dynamically downscaled Earth System Models (GFDL, HAD, IPSL) for the period 2025–2055 and 2065–2095.</p

Statistical results.

Summary of statistical results of regressions of (a-c) exposure, (d) sensitivity, (e-f) adaptive capacity, and (g-h) risk indices relative to latitude of each fleet. (DOCX)</p

Leave one out cross validation for regression of exposure based on vertical displacement of bottom temperature using the GFDL Earth System Model against latitude.

Points and error bars represent estimates of the coefficient of this regression (±2 SE) with the corresponding fleet removed from the data, red line indicates the mean estimate of the coefficient with all fleets included in the analysis. Changes in sign of the coefficient indicate a difference in the qualitative directional relationship between exposure based on vertical displacement of bottom temperature and latitude. (TIFF)</p

Contextual map, indicating the landing ports and port groups for groundfish fleets on the U.S. West Coast, as well as fishery closure areas and untrawlable habitat.

Landing ports are represented by white squares, while hatched regions show areas closed to bottom trawl fishing and red regions show untrawlable habitat. Green shading reflects 20km inland buffer for each of the 14 IO-PAC port groups. Left map shows fishery closures under Amendment 19, from ~2003–2019, and right map shows fishery closures from 2020 to present under Amendment 28 which were used for thermal displacement calculations. GEBCO 2023 (NOAA NCEI Visualization) base map (https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=8050bfc4eb4444758f194db95f817184). Credit: General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO); NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). (TIFF)</p

Linkage between individual ports and IO-PAC port groups.

The port groupings were developed by the PFMC for biennial groundfish harvest specifications. Aggregating individual ports into port groups is necessary to provide a feasible set of geographic areas for a coastwide climate risk analysis. Analysis at the individual port-level would violate confidentiality requirements, because there are often fewer than three buyers in any one port. (DOCX)</p

Leave one out cross validation for regression of exposure based on vertical displacement of bottom temperature using the IPSL Earth System Model against latitude.

Points and error bars represent estimates of the coefficient of this regression (±2 SE) with the corresponding fleet removed from the data, red line indicates the mean estimate of the coefficient with all fleets included in the analysis. Changes in sign of the coefficient indicate a difference in the qualitative directional relationship between exposure based on vertical displacement of bottom temperature and latitude. (TIFF)</p

Groundfish fleet vessel lengths.

Vessel lengths for U.S. West Coast groundfish fleets from 2011–2019 (median with 95% confidence interval). (TIFF)</p

Example fisheries participation networks for 3 port groups on the U.S. West Coast.

Example fisheries participation networks for the Puget Sound (left), Coos Bay (middle), and Morro Bay (right) port groups on the U.S. West Coast (2019). Each fishery is depicted as a node, while pairs of nodes are connected by lines, called edges, that integrate information about vessels participating in both fisheries. In these examples, Coos Bay and Morro Bay have higher edge densities than Puget Sound, implying that fishers in these port groups have access to a greater range of alternative fishing opportunities if one node (fishery) is compromised because of poor stock availability, a fishery closure, or other regulatory actions. (EPS)</p

Social vulnerability of groundfish fleets on the U.S. West Coast.

We assume that fleets either (a) adapt in-place by changing target species while remaining in current fishing grounds, or (b) adapt on-the-move by shifting fishing grounds while targeting current species. Font size and color scales with projected exposure to climate change. Vertical and horizontal lines represent median values across fleets. (EPS)</p