News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements

Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.

Participação das atividades de saúde na economia brasileira: informações da Conta de Saúde de 2000 a 2007 Share of health care ­activities in the Brazilian ­economy: information on Health Accounts from 2000 to 2007

OBJETIVO: Descrever a participação das atividades de saúde na economia brasileira entre 2000 e 2007 em termos de valor adicionado e geração de postos de trabalho. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados dados secundários do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística para os anos de 2000 a 2007. Foram analisadas as seguintes atividades: saúde pública, produção de serviços de saúde e serviços sociais privados, planos de saúde, indústria farmacêutica, indústria de equipamentos médicos e comércio de produtos farmacêuticos. Foi calculada a participação de cada atividade no total da economia e no setor saúde, a participação percentual dos componentes do valor adicionado na ótica da renda para as atividades de saúde e o crescimento real do valor adicionado por atividade de saúde. Para complementar as análises, foram levantados os rendimentos médios do trabalho e o número de postos de trabalho por atividade. RESULTADOS: A participação do setor saúde na economia variou de 5,2 a 5,8%. Cresceu a participação da saúde pública (de 1,7 para 2,0%) e caiu a dos serviços de saúde privados (de 2,4 para 2,2%). O crescimento médio anual do setor (3,5%) foi próximo ao da economia (3,4%). A participação do comércio de produtos farmacêuticos no setor aumentou de 9,1 para 13,2%. As atividades com maior crescimento acumulado foram: fabricação de aparelhos médico-hospitalares (42,7%), saúde pública (39,4%) e planos e seguros de saúde (35,8%). A saúde representou 4,1% dos postos de trabalho da economia em 2000 e 4,4% em 2007, com 1 milhão de novos postos. Os rendimentos do trabalho representaram 6,7% do total da economia em 2000 e 7,5% em 2007. CONCLUSÕES: O setor saúde tem uma participação importante na economia brasileira, embora essa participação ainda seja inferior àquela observada em países de alta renda. O aumento da participação dos serviços públicos no valor adicionado setorial, o crescimento das margens de comercialização dos produtos farmacêuticos e o crescimento real inferior à média setorial da indústria farmacêutica devem ser monitorados.OBJECTIVE: To describe the share of health care activities in the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2007 in terms of economic value added and creation of jobs. METHODS: Secondary data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the years 2000 to 2007 were employed. The following health care activities were analyzed: public health, production of private health services and private social services, health insurance, the pharmaceutical industry, medical equipment manufacturing, and medical and pharmaceutical product sales. The share of each activity in the total economy and in the health care sector was calculated, as well as the percentage share of value-added components from the perspective of income for health care ­activities and the real growth in value added by health care activity. To complement the analysis, the average income of workers and the number of jobs per activity were ­established. RESULTS>: The participation of the health care sector in the economy ranged from 5.2% to 5.8%. The share of public health increased from 1.7% to 2.0%, and that of private healthcare services fell from 2.4% to 2.2%. The average annual growth of 3.5% for the sector was close to the 3.4% annual growth recorded for the economy. The share of medical and pharmaceutical product commerce in the sector increased from 9.1% to 13.2%. The activities with the highest accumulated growth were: manufacture of medical/hospital devices (42.7%), public health (39.4%), and health insurance (35.8%). Health care represented 4.1% of jobs in the economy in 2000 vs. 4.4% in 2007, with 1 million new jobs. Income from labor represented 6.7% of the total economy in 2000 and 7.5% in 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The health care sector has an important stake in the Brazilian economy, although this share is still lower than that observed in high-income countries. The rising share of public services in the sector’s added value, the relative growth of medical and pharmaceutical product sales margins, and a real growth below the average for the pharmaceutical industry should be monitored