Which Exchange-Rate Regime in the EMU Accession Period: An Empirical Analysis

This study is the second part of larger empirical work focused on the timing of European Monetary Union (EMU) accession and on the selection of a pre-accession exchange-rate regime. The tool of our empirical analysis used in both studies is a model simulation that benefits from a consistent macro framework and estimated model equations. Five accession countries were studied. The results demonstrate that it is important to design pre-EMU exchange-rate regimes independently, according to the characteristics of each accession country, such as openness, flexibility, or level of financial wealth. Following the European Exchange-rate Mechanism (ERM II) as a core monetary-policy strategy for the whole of the pre-EMU period may be beneficial only for some accession countries. While Poland would benefit from introducing a fixed-rate regime for the pre-EMU period, for example, the Czech Republic and Slovenia would benefit more from maintaining a floating exchange rate. For Estonia and Hungary, both options have comparable benefits.accession countries; exchange-rate regime; empirical analysis

When to Join the Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis

The paper is the first part of a broader empirical study that considers the entry timing of accession economies into the eurozone and their exchange-rate regimes between the EU entry and prior to the eurozone entry. The presented empirical analysis is based on model simulations and on the outcomes of previous work related to panel estimates of model equations for five accession economies. The first conclusion is that is not possible to search for one-for-all answers as to timing and exchange-rate regimes. Each of the accession countries should decide in accordance with specific country characteristics. According to our analysis, Poland could benefit most from entering the eurozone relatively quickly, while the Czech Republic and Hungary may benefit from a more cautious approach. This diversity reflects different characteristics such as openness, flexibility, and financial wealth. Postponing entry after 2009 would likely carry fewer additional benefits, however.accession; eurozone; empirical analysis; Czech Republic; Hungary; Poland

Royaume-Uni : réforme et transformation

Barrell Ray. Royaume-Uni : réforme et transformation. In: Revue de l'OFCE, n°71, 1999. pp. 223-245

Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration

This paper shows that exchange rate volatility promotes agglomeration of economic activity. Under flexible rates, firms prefer to locate in large countries, where they would enjoy lower variability of sales, thus reinforcing concentration of firms in such locations. Empirical evidence on OECD countries demonstrates that for small (large) countries or currency areas, exchange rate volatility has a long-run negative (positive) effect on net inward FDI flows. Two implications arise: creating a currency area fosters agglomeration towards the area and dispersion within the area. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006flexible exchange rates, currency area, agglomeration, location, EMU,