The aging Canadian population and hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction: projection to 2020

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk of experiencing an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) increases with age and Canada's population is aging. The objective of this analysis was to examine trends in the AMI hospitalization rate in Canada between 2002 and 2009 and to estimate the potential increase in the number of AMI hospitalizations over the next decade.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Aggregated data on annual AMI hospitalizations were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information for all provinces and territories, except Quebec, for 2002/03 and 2009/10. Using these data in a Poisson regression model to control for age, gender and year, the rate of AMI hospitalizations was extrapolated between 2010 and 2020. The extrapolated rate and Statistics Canada population projections were used to estimate the number of AMI hospitalizations in 2020.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The rates of AMI hospitalizations by gender and age group showed a decrease between 2002 and 2009 in patients aged ≥ 65 years and relatively stable rates in those aged < 64 years in both males and females. However, the total number of AMI hospitalizations in Canada (excluding Quebec) is projected to increase by 4667 from 51847 in 2009 to 56514 in 2020, a 9.0% increase. Inflating this number to account for the unavailable Quebec data results in an increase of approximately 6200 for the whole of Canada. This would amount to an additional cost of between $46 and$54 million and sensitivity analyses indicate that it could be between $36 and$65 million.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite projected decreasing or stable rates of AMI hospitalization, the number of hospitalizations is expected to increase substantially as a result of the aging of the Canadian population. The cost of these hospitalizations will be substantial. An increase of this extent in the number of AMI hospitalizations and the ensuing costs would significantly impact the already over-stretched Canadian healthcare system.</p

Colorectal cancer prevention by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: effects of dosage and timing

Epidemiological studies show that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduce colorectal cancer incidence. We measured the rate ratio for colorectal adenocarcinoma according to dosage and the timing of exposure by means of a case–control study, nested in a non-concurrent cohort linkage study, using the population of beneficiaries of the Saskatchewan Prescription Drug Plan from 1981 to 1995 with no history of cancer since 1970 as the source population. Four controls per case, matched on age and gender and alive when the case was diagnosed, were randomly selected. Dispensing rates, calculated over successive time periods, characterized NSAID exposure. We accrued 3844 cases of colon cancer and 1971 cases of rectal cancer. For colon cancer a significant trend towards a decreasing rate ratio was associated with increasing exposure during the 6 months preceding diagnosis (P-trend = 0.002). For both cancers, significant trends were associated with exposure 11–15 years before diagnosis (colon: P-trend = 0.01; rectum: P-trend = 0.0001). At the highest exposure levels the rate ratio for colon cancer was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36–0.89); for rectal cancer it was 0.26 (95% CI 0.11–0.61). No protection was associated with exposure during other periods. The timing of NSAID use must be considered in planning intervention trials to prevent colorectal cancer. There may be a 10-year delay before any preventive effect will appear. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Progress in the management and outcome of small-cell lung cancer in a French region from 1981 to 1994

Recent analyses of series of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients included in clinical trials have shown improved survival over time, but it has been impossible to determine whether this was due to selection biases, stage migration, or true therapeutic improvement. To determine if there has been a true improvement of survival over time, we reviewed the medical records of all consecutive patients diagnosed with SCLC between 1981 and 1994 in the Bas-Rhin in France. Among the 787 patients (median age 63), there was no significant period effect for sex, age, or stage. Staging work-ups became increasingly thorough (significant period effect). The mean number of investigations and of tumour sites detected correlated significantly. The chemotherapy rate increased (from 76.4% in 1981–1983 to 91.7% in 1993–1994, P = 10−5) and mediastinal irradiation decreased (to roughly 25% of patients after 1983). Median survival time increased for the overall population from 6.6 months in 1981–1983 to 11.3 months in 1993–1994 (P = 10−5), for patients with limited disease (LD) from 9.2 (P = 0.002) months to 14.0 months, and for those with extensive (ED) disease from 3.5 months to 9.6 months (P = 10−5). Significant independent prognostic factors were disease extent, clinical trial participation, period, type of chemotherapy, and mediastinal irradiation in LD. Survival time has truly improved as ‘state of the art' management of SCLC has changed. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co