ATM Cash demand forecasting in an Indian Bank with chaos and deep learning

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.Comment: 20 pages; 6 figures and 3 table

Privacy-Preserving Chaotic Extreme Learning Machine with Fully Homomorphic Encryption

The Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models require a lot of data for the training process, and in some scenarios, there might be some sensitive data, such as customer information involved, which the organizations might be hesitant to outsource for model building. Some of the privacy-preserving techniques such as Differential Privacy, Homomorphic Encryption, and Secure Multi-Party Computation can be integrated with different Machine Learning and Deep Learning algorithms to provide security to the data as well as the model. In this paper, we propose a Chaotic Extreme Learning Machine and its encrypted form using Fully Homomorphic Encryption where the weights and biases are generated using a logistic map instead of uniform distribution. Our proposed method has performed either better or similar to the Traditional Extreme Learning Machine on most of the datasets.Comment: 26 pages; 1 Figure; 7 Tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2205.1326

FedPNN: One-shot Federated Classification via Evolving Clustering Method and Probabilistic Neural Network hybrid

Protecting data privacy is paramount in the fields such as finance, banking, and healthcare. Federated Learning (FL) has attracted widespread attention due to its decentralized, distributed training and the ability to protect the privacy while obtaining a global shared model. However, FL presents challenges such as communication overhead, and limited resource capability. This motivated us to propose a two-stage federated learning approach toward the objective of privacy protection, which is a first-of-its-kind study as follows: (i) During the first stage, the synthetic dataset is generated by employing two different distributions as noise to the vanilla conditional tabular generative adversarial neural network (CTGAN) resulting in modified CTGAN, and (ii) In the second stage, the Federated Probabilistic Neural Network (FedPNN) is developed and employed for building globally shared classification model. We also employed synthetic dataset metrics to check the quality of the generated synthetic dataset. Further, we proposed a meta-clustering algorithm whereby the cluster centers obtained from the clients are clustered at the server for training the global model. Despite PNN being a one-pass learning classifier, its complexity depends on the training data size. Therefore, we employed a modified evolving clustering method (ECM), another one-pass algorithm to cluster the training data thereby increasing the speed further. Moreover, we conducted sensitivity analysis by varying Dthr, a hyperparameter of ECM at the server and client, one at a time. The effectiveness of our approach is validated on four finance and medical datasets.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, 7 table

The Next Wave of CRM Innovation: Implications for Research, Teaching, and Practice

Globalization and customers’ ever-changing needs have created a hyper-competitive market. As a result, customer relationship management (CRM) has become a core topic of interest among both practitioners and academics. Further, over the years, with the advancements in the technology landscape, such as digital technologies, CRM has improved in myriad ways. This paper summarizes a panel discussion on CRM innovations held at the 2016 Pacific Asia Conference on Information Systems (PACIS 2016) in Chiyai, Taiwan. The panel discussed CRM fundamentals and how traditional CRM systems work in organizations. Then, the panel focused on the advancement in technology landscape such as big data, analytics, Internet of things, and artificial intelligence and how such technologies have transformed innovations in the CRM landscape. Finally, the panel highlighted the limitations in the current CRM curricula in the universities and how the curriculum today needs to reflect such advancements to enhance the union between the CRM curricula and the industry needs. Further, this paper provides future research ideas for academia and contributes to research interests on CRM in general

Explainable Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference based ATM Fraud Detection

Gaining the trust of customers and providing them empathy are very critical in the financial domain. Frequent occurrence of fraudulent activities affects these two factors. Hence, financial organizations and banks must take utmost care to mitigate them. Among them, ATM fraudulent transaction is a common problem faced by banks. There following are the critical challenges involved in fraud datasets: the dataset is highly imbalanced, the fraud pattern is changing, etc. Owing to the rarity of fraudulent activities, Fraud detection can be formulated as either a binary classification problem or One class classification (OCC). In this study, we handled these techniques on an ATM transactions dataset collected from India. In binary classification, we investigated the effectiveness of various over-sampling techniques, such as the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), to achieve oversampling. Further, we employed various machine learning techniques viz., Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT), Multi-layer perceptron (MLP). GBT outperformed the rest of the models by achieving 0.963 AUC, and DT stands second with 0.958 AUC. DT is the winner if the complexity and interpretability aspects are considered. Among all the oversampling approaches, SMOTE and its variants were observed to perform better. In OCC, IForest attained 0.959 CR, and OCSVM secured second place with 0.947 CR. Further, we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and causal inference (CI) in the fraud detection framework and studied it through various analyses.Comment: 34 pages; 21 Figures; 8 Table