Analytics and Implications of Services Sector Growth in Indian Economy

Given the magnitude of services growth and its inter-linkages with other sectors of the economy, it is important to understand the impact of services sector on other macro-economic variables. The present paper attempts to identify some of the critical issues in India’s services-led growth and tests certain hypotheses that are currently in debate. These relate to: (a) whether the robust growth of the services sector has added a dimension of stability to India's GDP growth; (b) whether there has been a growing complementarity between services and industrial sectors of the economy; (c) whether like other commodity-producing sectors, the services sector also experienced 'jobless' growth; (d) whether the imposition of services tax has boosted the Indian Government’s efforts at mobilising more resources; and (e) whether high growth of services sector in India had an inflationary impact on the economy. Our analysis found the first four hypotheses to hold true. In respect of the last hypothesis, in contrast to the expectations that high services sector growth has an inflationary impact on the economy, we found that the rising share of services sector in GDP has not contributed to inflation in the Indian economy.Services; Industry; Tax; Employment; Inflation

Examining Sustainability of Federal Finances in India: An Application of Non-stationary Panel Methods

This paper examines the fiscal sustainability of Indian States during the 1990s on the basis of their budgetary data. Sustainability has been discussed using the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and has been tested by applying the panel co-integration technique. The panel analysis reveals that revenue receipts and revenue expenditures are co-integrated across the States. Further, the insensitivity of the results to the choice of the period of analysis attests the robustness of the result that the State finances in India may not be unsustainable

Examining Sustainability of Federal Finances in India: An Application of Non-stationary Panel Methods

This paper examines the fiscal sustainability of Indian States during the 1990s on the basis of their budgetary data. Sustainability has been discussed using the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and has been tested by applying the panel co-integration technique. The panel analysis reveals that revenue receipts and revenue expenditures are co-integrated across the States. Further, the insensitivity of the results to the choice of the period of analysis attests the robustness of the result that the State finances in India may not be unsustainable

Analytics and Implications of Services Sector Growth in Indian Economy

Given the magnitude of services growth and its inter-linkages with other sectors of the economy, it is important to understand the impact of services sector on other macro-economic variables. The present paper attempts to identify some of the critical issues in India’s services-led growth and tests certain hypotheses that are currently in debate. These relate to: (a) whether the robust growth of the services sector has added a dimension of stability to India's GDP growth; (b) whether there has been a growing complementarity between services and industrial sectors of the economy; (c) whether like other commodity-producing sectors, the services sector also experienced 'jobless' growth; (d) whether the imposition of services tax has boosted the Indian Government’s efforts at mobilising more resources; and (e) whether high growth of services sector in India had an inflationary impact on the economy. Our analysis found the first four hypotheses to hold true. In respect of the last hypothesis, in contrast to the expectations that high services sector growth has an inflationary impact on the economy, we found that the rising share of services sector in GDP has not contributed to inflation in the Indian economy

Analytics and Implications of Services Sector Growth in Indian Economy

Given the magnitude of services growth and its inter-linkages with other sectors of the economy, it is important to understand the impact of services sector on other macro-economic variables. The present paper attempts to identify some of the critical issues in India’s services-led growth and tests certain hypotheses that are currently in debate. These relate to: (a) whether the robust growth of the services sector has added a dimension of stability to India's GDP growth; (b) whether there has been a growing complementarity between services and industrial sectors of the economy; (c) whether like other commodity-producing sectors, the services sector also experienced 'jobless' growth; (d) whether the imposition of services tax has boosted the Indian Government’s efforts at mobilising more resources; and (e) whether high growth of services sector in India had an inflationary impact on the economy. Our analysis found the first four hypotheses to hold true. In respect of the last hypothesis, in contrast to the expectations that high services sector growth has an inflationary impact on the economy, we found that the rising share of services sector in GDP has not contributed to inflation in the Indian economy

Examining Sustainability of Federal Finances in India: An Application of Non-stationary Panel Methods

This paper examines the fiscal sustainability of Indian States during the 1990s on the basis of their budgetary data. Sustainability has been discussed using the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and has been tested by applying the panel co-integration technique. The panel analysis reveals that revenue receipts and revenue expenditures are co-integrated across the States. Further, the insensitivity of the results to the choice of the period of analysis attests the robustness of the result that the State finances in India may not be unsustainable.State Finances; Panel Cointegration

An empirical investigation of the relationship between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth in selected EMEs

Purpose ─ This article explores the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth for nine emerging market economies using annual data from 1991-92 to 2019-20. Method ─ This paper distinguishes itself from the existing literature through the application of co-integration tests, vector error correction, DOLS and FMOLS for an empirical investigation of a unique panel data set of select emerging economies across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. A bi-directional causal long-run relationship between economic growth and government expenditure, as well as between government expenditure and government revenue, was found using standard panel co-integration tests. Findings ─ The long-run elasticities computed using VECM were confirmed from DOLS as well as FMOLS estimates. A one per cent increase in expenditure and revenue, in the long run, would result in an increase in GDP by 0.94 and 0.90 per cent, respectively. Similarly, an increase in GDP by one per cent would lead to an increase in government expenditure by 1.1 per cent. On the other hand, an increase in government revenue by one per cent would cause a corresponding increase in government expenditure by nearly one per cent. The findings of this research point to a positive association between government revenue, expenditure, and economic growth, which will be valuable to policymakers. Contribution ─ Our combination of country selection covering economies from different continents is a first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. Another contribution is the application of panel cointegration and panel error correction techniques to fully use the panel data set, while most previous studies utilised the typical time series modelling with individual time series data

On the endogeneity of the money multiplier in India [Working paper 2001/12]

Citing a break in the statistical association between the broader money aggregates and reserve money in the post-reforms period of the 1990s vis-a-vis the 1980s, this paper argues that an endogenous money multiplier framework is best suited for analyzing the money supply process in India and questions the simplifying assumptions tending to justify stability and predictability of the money multiplier especially in the context of a deregulated financial system with market determined interest rates. An empirical analysis conducted using monthly data for the period April 1980 through March 2000 establishes this and traces the source of the endogeneity of these multipliers to a range of macroeconomic variables

On the endogeneity of the money multiplier in India [Working paper 2001/1]

Citing a break in the statistical association between the broader money aggregates and reserve money in the the post-reforms period of the 1990s vis-a-vis the 1980s, this paper argues that an endogenous money multiplier framework is best suited for analyzing the money supply process in India and questions the simplifying assumptions tending to justify stability and predictability of the money multiplier especially in the context of a deregulated financial system with market determined interest rates. An empirical analysis conducted using monthly data for the period April 1980 through March 2000 establishes this and traces the source of the endogeneity of these multipliers to a range of macroeconomic variables