Getting Carried Away in Auctions as Imperfect Value Discovery

Bidders in auctions must decide whether and when to incur the cost of estimating the most they are willing to pay. This can explain why people seem to get carried away, bidding higher than they had planned before the auction and then finding they had paid more than the object was worth to them. Even when such behavior is rational, ex ante, it may be perceived as irrational if one ignores other situations in which people revise their bid ceilings upwards and are happy when that enables them to win the auction.

When Does Extra Risk Strictly Increase an Option's Value?

It is well known that risk increases the value of options. This paper makes that precise in a new way. The conventional theorem says that the value of an option does not fall if the underlying option becomes riskier in the conventional sense of the mean-preserving spread. This paper uses two new definitions of "riskier" to show that the value of an option strictly increases (a) if the underlying asset becomes "pointwise riskier," and (b) only if the underlying asset becomes "extremum riskier."

Some Common Confusions about Hyperbolic Discounting

There is much confusion over what "hyperbolic discounting" means. I argue that what matters is the use of relativistic instead of objective time, not the shape of the discount function.time inconsistency, hyperbolic discounting

Career Concerns and Ambiguity Aversion

Why do people have ambiguity aversion, preferring, a gamble with a 50% chance of success to one whose expected probability of success is 50% but where that 50% is an unbiased estimate? The answer modelled here, in the spirit of the career concerns literature, is learning: a risk-averse person does not wish observers to learn whether he is good or bad at estimating probabilities. He therefore prefers a gamble with objective probabilities.time inconsistency, hyperbolic discounting

'Getting Carried Away in Auctions as Imperfect Value Discovery'

Bidders have to decide whether and when to incur the cost of estimating their own values in auctions. This can explain why people seem to get carried away, bidding higher than they had planned before the auction and then finding they had paid more than the object was worth to them. Even when such behavior is rational, ex ante, it may be perceived as irrational if one ignores other situations in which people revise their bid ceilings upwards and are happy when that enables them to win the auction.private value, auctions, behavioral, e-bay, reservation price

A Reputation Model of Quality in North-South Trade

Countries have different comparative advantages in quality. These might be due to technological differences, or to reputation differences of the sort described in Klein & Leffler (1981). Reputation differences are particularly interesting, since good reputations are a form of “social capital” that is amenable to modelling. They can explain why firms in these industries like to export even if the foreign price is no higher than the domestic one, and why governments would like to have large “high- value” sectors.

Quality-Ensuring Profits

In the reputation model of Klein and Leffler (1981) firms refrain from cutting quality or price because if they did they would forfeit future profits. Something similar can happen even in a static setting. First, if there exist some discerning consumers who can observe quality, firms wish to retain their purchases. Second, if all consumers can sometimes but not always spot flaws, firms do not want to lose the business of those who would spot them on a given visit. Third, if the law provides a penalty for fraud, but not one so high as to to make fraud unprofitable, firms may prefer selling high quality at high prices to low quality at high prices plus some chance of punishment.reputation, product quality, moral hazard, quality-guaranteeing price

When Does Extra Risk Strictly Increase the Value of Options?

It is well known that risk increases the value of options. This paper makes that precise in a new way. The conventional theorem says that the value of an option does not fall if the underlying option becomes riskier in the conventional sense of the mean-preserving spread. This paper uses two new definitions of ``riskier'' to show that the value of an option strictly increases (a) if the underlying asset becomes ``pointwise riskier,'' and (b) only if the underlying asset becomes ``extremum riskier.''options, risk, mean-preserving spread,calls

Internalities and Paternalism: Applying the Compensation Criterion to Multiple Selves across Time

One reason to call an activity a vice and suppress it is that it reduces a person’s future happiness more than it increases his present happiness. Gruber and Koszegi (2001) show how a vice tax can increase a person’s welfare in a model of multiple selves with hyperbolic preferences across time. The present paper shows that an interself analogy of the Kaldor-Hicks compensation criterion can justify a vice ban whether preferences are hyperbolic or exponential, but subject to the caveat that the person has a binding constraint on borrowing.internalities, sin tax, moral regulation, Kaldor-Hicks criterion, time inconsistency, hyperbolic preferences

Strategic Implications of Uncertainty Over One’s Own Private Value in Auctions

Suppose a bidder must decide whether and when to incur the cost of estimating his own private value in an auction. This can explain why a bidder might increase his bid ceiling in the course of an auction, and why a bidder would like to know the private values of other bidders. It also can explain sniping — flurries of bids at the end of auctions with deadlines — as the result of other bidders trying to avoid stimulating the uninformed bidder to examine his value.