Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile

Using plant-level data on Chilean manufacturing firms for the 1980-2001 period, we estimate and characterize disaggregate total factor productivity. We use these estimates to study the microeconomic sources of aggregate efficiency, a fundamental part of aPlant dynamics, total factor productivity, growth, chilean manufacturing

Trade Theory and Trade Facts

This paper quantitatively tests the "new trade theory" based on product di.erentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to e.ect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large e.ects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then "backcasting" to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.

Trade theory and trade facts

This paper quantitatively tests the “new trade theory” based on product differentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large effects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then “backcasting” to 1961 to see what changes in crucial variables between 1961 and 1990 are predicted by the theory. The results show that, although the model is capable of explaining much of the increased concentration of trade among industrialized countries, it is not capable of explaining the enormous increase in the ratio of trade to income. Our analysis suggests that it is policy changes, rather than the elements emphasized in the new trade theory, that have been the most significant determinants of the increase in trade volume.Trade ; Product differentiation

Market Reforms and Efficiency Gains in Chile

Starting in the mid 1970s, Chile implemented a deep and comprehensive set of structural market reforms. In spite of the wide agreement there is with respect to the benefits these reforms should have on growth, little evidence has been provided to empirically establish and to quantify this connection. Using plant-level data on Chilean manufacturing firms for the 1980-2001 period, we provide suggestive evidence of the role of structural reforms on plant efficiency. The paper first analyzes the behavior of aggregate total factor productivity constructed from data at the plant-level. We find that, once major reforms had been fully implemented, aggregate efficiency gains were explained in equal proportions by within plant improvements and by the net entry of new and more productive economic units. The reallocation among incumbent plants did not contribute significantly to the enhancement of efficiency. The paper also finds that within-plant efficiency gains were the largest among firms producing traded goods, and among firms that were more likely to face binding liquidity constraints. Thus, in Chile, the adoption of better technologies and production processes, fostered by broader foreign exposure and a superior access to external finance, seem to have at least partially accounted for the observed improvement in manufacturing performance.

Labor Market Distortions, Employment and Growth: The Recent Chilean Experience

The per capita growth rate of Chile from 1984 to 1997 was among the highest in the world. During recent years, however, per capita growth dropped significantly. This paper discusses the role of factor accumulation and the efficiency with which factors are used, measured as total factor productivity (TFP), to explain the evolution of output in Chile during the past 20 years. In contrast with the experience of the 1980s and early 1990s, in recent years the primary determinant of the drop in output growth has not been a decline in TFP, but a severe fall in employment. Using a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model based on the neoclassical growth model, with fluctuations in factor inputs induced by changes in TFP and relative input prices, we conclude that a 6.17% increase in the cost of labor hiring replicates the observed fall in employment. This fall, in turn, could be attributed to a perceived higher cost of labor services associated to both the significant increase in the minimum wage observed between 1998 and 2000, and a labor code reform, intensively debated during the 1999- 2002 period.

Slow Recoveries

Economies respond differently to aggregate shocks that reduce output. While some countries rapidly recover their pre-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a link between aggregate growth and plant dynamics through its effect on productivity: the entry and exit of firms and the reallocation of resources from less to more efficient firms explain a relevant part of transitional productivity dynamics. In this paper we use a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to study the effect on aggregate short-run growth of policies that distort the process of birth, growth and death of firms, as well as the reallocation of resources across economic units. Our findings show that indeed policies that alter plant dynamics can explain slow recoveries. We also find that output losses associated to delayed recoveries are large.