Mean squared error of empirical predictor

The term ``empirical predictor'' refers to a two-stage predictor of a linear combination of fixed and random effects. In the first stage, a predictor is obtained but it involves unknown parameters; thus, in the second stage, the unknown parameters are replaced by their estimators. In this paper, we consider mean squared errors (MSE) of empirical predictors under a general setup, where ML or REML estimators are used for the second stage. We obtain second-order approximation to the MSE as well as an estimator of the MSE correct to the same order. The general results are applied to mixed linear models to obtain a second-order approximation to the MSE of the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) of a linear mixed effect and an estimator of the MSE of EBLUP whose bias is correct to second order. The general mixed linear model includes the mixed ANOVA model and the longitudinal model as special cases

Small area estimation of general parameters with application to poverty indicators: A hierarchical Bayes approach

Poverty maps are used to aid important political decisions such as allocation of development funds by governments and international organizations. Those decisions should be based on the most accurate poverty figures. However, often reliable poverty figures are not available at fine geographical levels or for particular risk population subgroups due to the sample size limitation of current national surveys. These surveys cannot cover adequately all the desired areas or population subgroups and, therefore, models relating the different areas are needed to 'borrow strength" from area to area. In particular, the Spanish Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) produces national poverty estimates but cannot provide poverty estimates by Spanish provinces due to the poor precision of direct estimates, which use only the province specific data. It also raises the ethical question of whether poverty is more severe for women than for men in a given province. We develop a hierarchical Bayes (HB) approach for poverty mapping in Spanish provinces by gender that overcomes the small province sample size problem of the SILC. The proposed approach has a wide scope of application because it can be used to estimate general nonlinear parameters. We use a Bayesian version of the nested error regression model in which Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures and the convergence monitoring therein are avoided. A simulation study reveals good frequentist properties of the HB approach. The resulting poverty maps indicate that poverty, both in frequency and intensity, is localized mostly in the southern and western provinces and it is more acute for women than for men in most of the provinces.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS702 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Electronic phase separation in the rare earth manganates, (La1-xLnx)0.7Ca0.3MnO3 (Ln = Nd, Gd and Y)

All the three series of manganates showsaturation magnetization characteristic of ferromagnetism, with the ferromagnetic Tc decreasing with increasing in x up to a critical value of x, xc (xc = 0.6, 0.3, 0.2 respectively for Nd, Gd, Y). For x > xc, the magnetic moments are considerably smaller showing a small increase around TM, the value of TM decreasing slightly with increase in x or decrease in . The ferromagnetic compositions (x xc) show insulator-metal (IM) transitions, while the compositions with x > xc are insulating. The magnetic and electrical resistivity behavior of these manganates is consistent with the occurrence of phase separation in the compositions around xc, corresponding to a critical average radius of the A-site cation, , of 1.18 A. Both Tc and TIM increase linearly when < rA > > or x xc as expected of a homogenous ferromagnetic phase. Both Tc and TM decrease linearly with the A-site cation size disorder at the A-site as measured by the variance s2. Thus, an increase in s2 favors the insulating AFM state. Percolative conduction is observed in the compositions with > < rAc >. Electron transport properties in the insulating regime for x > xc conforms to the variable range hopping mechanism. More interestingly, when x > xc, the real part of dielectric constant (e') reaches a high value (104-106) at ordinary temperatures dropping to a very small (~500) value below a certain temperature, the value of which decreases with decreasing frequency.Comment: 27 pages; 11 figures, Submitted to J.Phys:Condens Matte

Quenching of fluorescence of aromatic molecules by graphene due to electron transfer

Investigations on the fluorescence quenching of graphene have been carried out with two organic donor molecules, pyrene butanaoic acid succinimidyl ester (PyBS, I) and oligo(p-phenylenevinylene) methyl ester (OPV-ester, II). Absorption and photoluminescence spectra of I and II recorded in mixture with increasing the concentrations of graphene showed no change in the former, but remarkable quenching of fluorescence. The property of graphene to quench fluorescence of these aromatic molecules is shown to be associated with photo-induced electron transfer, on the basis of fluorescence decay and time-resolved transient absorption spectroscopic measurements.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

Decent Living Standards: material prerequisites for human wellbeing

We define a set of universal, irreducible and essential set of material conditions for achieving basic human wellbeing, along with indicators and quantitative thresholds, which can be operationalized for societies based on local customs and preferences. We draw support for this Decent Living Standard (DLS) from different accounts of basic justice, including the capability approach, basic needs, and primary goods. The DLS goes beyond existing multidimensional poverty indicators by comprehensively addressing living conditions and the means of social participation. The DLS offers a normative basis to develop minimum wage and reference budgets, and to assess environmental impacts, such as climate change, of eradicating poverty

Early childhood care and education in the Asia Pacific Region: Moving towards goal 1

The Report commissioned by UNESCO Asia-Pacific Bureau for Education for the World Conference on Early Childhood Care and Education (WCECCE), 2010. Published jointly by UNESCO Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau for Education and the Comparative Education Research Centre, The University of Hong Kong.The Report is part of the CERC Monograph Series in Comparative and International Education and Development, v. 8. E-text at: http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0019/001905/190526e.pd

Scaffolding interactions with preschool children: Comparisons between Chinese mothers and teachers across different tasks

This study investigated how Chinese adults adjusted their scaffolding in interactions with children during problem-solving tasks. Fifty-seven 5-year-olds (from low and high socioeconomic status [SES] backgrounds) completed a playlike task (puzzle) and a school-like task (worksheet) with their mothers and teachers, respectively. Adult-child interactions were videotaped, and the analyses focused on how adults adjusted their scaffolding as a function of children's responses. Results indicated that teachers adjusted their scaffolding more appropriately than mothers, and that adults' sensitivity to children's understanding was associated with more appropriate scaffolding. Children from middle or upper SES families received more optimal scaffolding than those from lower SES families, and both mothers and teachers provided more skilled scaffolding in the school-like task than in the playlike task. Findings suggest that family SES, adults' professional training, and task characteristics, as well as adults' understanding of children's mastery, should be considered in the analysis of dyadic problem solving. © 2012 by Wayne State University Press.published_or_final_versio

Quality early childhood care and education in low resource level countries in Asia

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