Bayesian Species Delimitation Can Be Robust to Guide-Tree Inference Errors

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Molecular phylogenetics: principles and practice

Phylogenies are important for addressing various biological questions such as relationships among species or genes, the origin and spread of viral infection and the demographic changes and migration patterns of species. The advancement of sequencing technologies has taken phylogenetic analysis to a new height. Phylogenies have permeated nearly every branch of biology, and the plethora of phylogenetic methods and software packages that are now available may seem daunting to an experimental biologist. Here, we review the major methods of phylogenetic analysis, including parsimony, distance, likelihood and Bayesian methods. We discuss their strengths and weaknesses and provide guidance for their use

Unguided Species Delimitation Using DNA Sequence Data from Multiple Loci

A method was developed for simultaneous Bayesian inference of species delimitation and species phylogeny using the multispecies coalescent model. The method eliminates the need for a user-specified guide tree in species delimitation and incorporates phylogenetic uncertainty in a Bayesian framework. The nearest-neighbor interchange algorithm was adapted to propose changes to the species tree, with the gene trees for multiple loci altered in the proposal to avoid conflicts with the newly proposed species tree. We also modify our previous scheme for specifying priors for species delimitation models to construct joint priors for models of species delimitation and species phylogeny. As in our earlier method, the modified algorithm integrates over gene trees, taking account of the uncertainty of gene tree topology and branch lengths given the sequence data. We conducted a simulation study to examine the statistical properties of the method using six populations (two sequences each) and a true number of three species, with values of divergence times and ancestral population sizes that are realistic for recently diverged species. The results suggest that the method tends to be conservative with high posterior probabilities being a confident indicator of species status. Simulation results also indicate that the power of the method to delimit species increases with an increase of the divergence times in the species tree, and with an increased number of gene loci. Reanalyses of two data sets of cavefish and coast horned lizards suggest considerable phylogenetic uncertainty even though the data are informative about species delimitation. We discuss the impact of the prior on models of species delimitation and species phylogeny and of the prior on population size parameters (θ) on Bayesian species delimitation

Efficient Bayesian species tree inference under the multispecies coalescent

We develop a Bayesian method for inferring the species phylogeny under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model. To improve the mixing properties of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that traverses the space of species trees, we implement two efficient MCMC proposals: the first is based on the Subtree Pruning and Regrafting (SPR) algorithm and the second is based on a node-slider algorithm. Like the Nearest-Neighbor Interchange (NNI) algorithm we implemented previously, both new algorithms propose changes to the species tree while simultaneously altering the gene trees at multiple genetic loci to automatically avoid conflicts with the newly proposed species tree. The method integrates over gene trees, naturally taking account of the uncertainty of gene tree topology and branch lengths given the sequence data. A simulation study was performed to examine the statistical properties of the new method. The method was found to show excellent statistical performance, inferring the correct species tree with near certainty when 10 loci were included in the dataset. The prior on species trees has some impact, particularly for small numbers of loci. We analyzed several previously published datasets (both real and simulated) for rattlesnakes and Philippine shrews, in comparison with alternative methods. The results suggest that the Bayesian coalescentbased method is statistically more efficient than heuristic methods based on summary statistics, and that our implementation is computationally more efficient than alternative full-likelihood methods under the MSC. Parameter estimates for the rattlesnake data suggest drastically different evolutionary dynamics between the nuclear and mitochondrial loci, even though they support largely consistent species trees. We discuss the different challenges facing the marginal likelihood calculation and transmodel MCMC as alternative strategies for estimating posterior probabilities for species trees

Molecular clock dating

This chapter reviews the history of the molecular clock, its impact on molecular evolution, and the controversies surrounding mechanisms of evolutionary rate variation and the application of the clock to date species divergences. We review current molecular clock dating methods, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, with an emphasis on relaxing the clock and on incorporating uncertainties into fossil calibrations

The Influence of Gene Flow on Species Tree Estimation: A Simulation Study

Gene flow among populations or species and incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) are two evolutionary processes responsible for generating gene tree discordance and therefore hindering species tree estimation. Numerous studies have evaluated the impacts of ILS on species tree inference, yet the ramifications of gene flow on species trees remain less studied. Here, we simulate and analyse multilocus sequence data generated with ILS and gene flow to quantify their impacts on species tree inference. We characterize species tree estimation errors under various models of gene flow, such as the isolation-migration model, the n-island model, and gene flow between non-sister species or involving ancestral species, and species boundaries crossed by a single gene copy (allelic introgression) or by a single migrant individual. These patterns of gene flow are explored on species trees of different sizes (4 vs. 10 species), at different time scales (shallow vs. deep), and with different migration rates. Species trees are estimated with the multispecies coalescent model using Bayesian methods (BEST and *BEAST) and with a summary statistic approach (MPEST) that facilitates phylogenomic-scale analysis. Even in cases where the topology of the species tree is estimated with high accuracy, we find that gene flow can result in overestimates of population sizes (species tree dilation) and underestimates of species divergence times (species tree compression). Signatures of migration events remain present in the distribution of coalescent times for gene trees, and with sufficient data it is possible to identify those loci that have crossed species boundaries. These results highlight the need for careful sampling design in phylogeographic and species delimitation studies as gene flow, introgression, or incorrect sample assignments can bias the estimation of the species tree topology and of parameter estimates such as population sizes and divergence times

The Impact of Cross-Species Gene Flow on Species Tree Estimation

Recent analyses of genomic sequence data suggest cross-species gene flow is common in both plants and animals, posing challenges to species tree estimation. We examine the levels of gene flow needed to mislead species tree estimation with three species and either episodic introgressive hybridization or continuous migration between an outgroup and one ingroup species. Several species tree estimation methods are examined, including the majority-vote method based on the most common gene tree topology (with either the true or reconstructed gene trees used), the UPGMA method based on the average sequence distances (or average coalescent times) between species, and the full-likelihood method based on multilocus sequence data. Our results suggest that the majority-vote method based on gene tree topologies is more robust to gene flow than the UPGMA method based on coalescent times and both are more robust than likelihood assuming a multispecies coalescent (MSC) model with no cross-species gene flow. Comparison of the continuous migration model with the episodic introgression model suggests that a small amount of gene flow per generation can cause drastic changes to the genetic history of the species and mislead species tree methods, especially if the species diverged through radiative speciation events. Estimates of parameters under the MSC with gene flow suggest that African mosquito species in the Anopheles gambiae species complex constitute such an example of extreme impact of gene flow on species phylogeny. [IM; introgression; migration; MSci; multispecies coalescent; species tree.

Counting Coalescent Histories

Given a species tree and a gene tree, a valid coalescent history is a list of the branches of the species tree on which coalescences in the gene tree take place. I develop a recursion for the number of valid coalescent histories that exist for an arbitrary gene tree/species tree pair, when one gene lineage is studied per species. The result is obtained by defining a concept of m-extended coalescent histories, enumerating and counting these histories, and taking the special case of m = 1. As a sum over valid coalescent histories appears in a formula for the probability that a random gene tree evolving along the branches of a fixed species tree has a specified labeled topology, the enumeration of valid coalescent histories can considerably reduce the effort required for evaluating this formula.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63175/1/cmb.2006.0109.pd

Bayesian Species Identification under the Multispecies Coalescent Provides Significant Improvements to DNA Barcoding Analyses

DNA barcoding methods use a single locus (usually the mitochondrial COI gene) to assign unidentified specimens to known species in a library based on a genetic distance threshold that distinguishes between-species divergence from within-species diversity. Recently developed species delimitation methods based on the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model offer an alternative approach to individual assignment using either single-locus or multi-loci sequence data. Here we use simulations to demonstrate three features of an MSC method implemented in the program bpp. First, we show that with one locus, MSC can accurately assign individuals to species without the need for arbitrarily determined distance thresholds (as required for barcoding methods). We provide an example in which no single threshold or barcoding gap exists that can be used to assign all specimens without incurring high error rates. Second, we show that bpp can identify cryptic species that may be mis-identified as a single species within the library, potentially improving the accuracy of barcoding libraries. Third, we show that taxon rarity does not present any particular problems for species assignments using bpp, and that accurate assignments can be achieved even when only one or a few loci are available. Thus, concerns that have been raised that MSC methods may have problems analyzing rare taxa (singletons) are unfounded. Currently barcoding methods enjoy a huge computational advantage over MSC methods and may be the only approach feasible for massively large datasets, but MSC methods may offer a more stringent test for species that are tentatively assigned by barcoding

Neutral Evolution as Diffusion in phenotype space: reproduction with mutation but without selection

The process of `Evolutionary Diffusion', i.e. reproduction with local mutation but without selection in a biological population, resembles standard Diffusion in many ways. However, Evolutionary Diffusion allows the formation of local peaks with a characteristic width that undergo drift, even in the infinite population limit. We analytically calculate the mean peak width and the effective random walk step size, and obtain the distribution of the peak width which has a power law tail. We find that independent local mutations act as a diffusion of interacting particles with increased stepsize.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Paper now representative of published articl